Wednesday Ice Threat, Friday Thunderstorms

By: Pcroton , 12:08 PM GMT on February 16, 2014

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Update 2/19 4PM

Afternoon Updates begin on Post #307

More freezing rain on the way for Thursday and Friday along with potentially strong thunderstorms Friday. After a few warm days we all cool back down beginning Sunday and there are a few coastal threats showing up on the models over the next two weeks.




================================================

Update 2/19 7AM

Freezing Rain has begun in Pennsylvania and will head east through the morning hours. A strong to severe thunderstorm threat exists for Friday morning. Updates begin on Post #277









==============================================

Update 2/18 5PM

A freezing Rain threat has developed across Pennsylvania and points northward tomorrow morning.

Discussion begins on Post #249







Our Snow Storm continues in New England:



===============================================


Update 2/18 7AM

Morning Update post #187

Quick hitting system moving through the region this morning will wind up later this afternoon as it heads north east.




=======================================

Update 2/17 10PM

Evening Update Post #168

It appears the storm system is moving quicker and will push through the region during the early to mid morning hours. By the time temperatures become an issue in NJ the heavier precipitation may have passed.








Evening Update Post #168


=====================================

Blog Refresh, 2/17 4PM

Afternoon Updates begin on Post #70

The storm continues to develop and head eastward.






A light to moderate snowfall threat continues for the Middle Atlantic and North East with a more significant snowfall expected for northern CT, Massachusettes, SE New Hampshire, and Maine.





I believe the coastlines from New York City on southward are going to change to Rain on Tuesday while inland areas will remain as snow. This may keep snowfall totals down along the coasts.

GFS 10AM:




============================================

Temperatures will warm after the event passes as we experience a week long break from the persistent cold weather. There is even a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday.








While we enjoy the warmer weather the pattern reloads in the Pacific and Canada and we will see yet another return to below normal temps and above normal precipitation. The same mechanisms that have led to this past winter are still in play and will come to bear one more time. More on that in the next blog entry...which will come out after this present system moves out of the area.

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345. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:37 AM GMT on February 20, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
344. Matlack
2:26 AM GMT on February 20, 2014
Remember P, meteorology is a study of the science where hypotheses are made (models) and then realities are measured against it to determine the validity of the hypothesis. Trained or not science is the same and that is what we do with some personal preference included. What we don't add is hype to gain viewership like a media outlet. If the weather heads cannot explain models to our emergency managers and legislators then we need to vote them all out for being stupid. Rant done
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
343. noreasterrrrr
1:25 AM GMT on February 20, 2014
P please dont change any way u go about your blog..u have an enormous fan club in your corner. I know u wont even consider or question the way you go about things..no reason to consider it as without a shadow of a doubt your information is so useful and keeps people safe. ..let the outlier voice his opinion which he did..now its done and forgotten..looking forward to your new blog!
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
342. tlawson48
12:44 AM GMT on February 20, 2014
Well I wouldn't say we got our clocks cleaned but it snowed gang busters for the second afternoon commute in a row. Super wet and sticky, coming down in the two inch an hour range. Got about four inches out away from the trees.

No town plow as of yet. Probably half of them are broken. My street is officially one lane. If you see another car, pull into a snowbank as best you can and pray your mirrors don't kiss!
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
341. air360
12:36 AM GMT on February 20, 2014
Quoting 338. PhillySnow:
Interesting rant, P. I wouldn't take any of it personally. Those of us who are on your blog appreciate you posting the models and conjecturing, and you never misrepresent yourself.

Looking forward to the new blog!


Perfectly put
Member Since: October 13, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 275
340. noreasterrrrr
12:12 AM GMT on February 20, 2014
Love ur blog P
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
339. noreasterrrrr
12:11 AM GMT on February 20, 2014
Well said
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
338. PhillySnow
12:04 AM GMT on February 20, 2014
Interesting rant, P. I wouldn't take any of it personally. Those of us who are on your blog appreciate you posting the models and conjecturing, and you never misrepresent yourself.

Looking forward to the new blog!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1273
337. Pcroton
10:43 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 336. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


sometimes peeps like to make more of things then needed and all us blogging weather peeps know things are never written in stone even if official I really don't see the harm

but hey that's just me

and besides I always inform people that things can and will change and not to go all crazy over one particular group of models

the best thing is just keep watchin and once its 3 or 4 days away then you could go all mental if ya wish


Yeah, good points.



Well, the source of my rumbles shows itself..



Nice cumulus building. Nothing spectacular.



.........I hope to have a new blog entry out in the morning to properly address the ice, thunder, and potential coastal threats.


Have a good night everyone!
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
336. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:38 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 332. Pcroton:


True, and that is what happened, but this admonishment is overkill.

The kid they are blaming for it didn't even call for it to be a forecast. He just posted it how we post maps "Look at the Euro..." type bit.

Some fireman read it and took it as confirmation of a storm coming, posted on the Delaware firemans forum, some other dolts read that and they started pressing NWS Mount Holly over it.

That situation immediately followed the misplaced blame for the Atlanta NWS over the southern ice storm rubbing NWS employees the wrong way - and this thing took off.

Then we have the "vigilante" angle where any random met or fellow blogger feels it's now their duty to chastise others.

Sad...and I don't see the purpose here other than mets taking offense to anyone but them making an assumption about the weather.

Perhaps someone should remind them that they were hobbyists as well at one point before they became "professionals".

I think it's unfair to all hobbyists. You read some comments and these mets think all weather blogs should be removed as if they are criminal acts - and all model maps should become private data only for them.

Unreal.

Oh well. Rant over. Feel better.





sometimes peeps like to make more of things then needed and all us blogging weather peeps know things are never written in stone even if official I really don't see the harm

but hey that's just me

and besides I always inform people that things can and will change and not to go all crazy over one particular group of models

the best thing is just keep watchin and once its 3 or 4 days away then you could go all mental if ya wish
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
335. Pcroton
10:32 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Heard another rumble. Not showing up but it's going on.





Funky clouds moving rapidly west to east.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
334. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:32 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
333. Pcroton
10:23 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Just heard a good rumble of thunder to my south. Nothing on radar that close to me but there is a line of instability heading through. The clouds have that look.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
332. Pcroton
10:19 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 330. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I think what happens is someone see's the snow maps takes it to be official then bombs there local offices wanting answers



True, and that is what happened, but this admonishment is overkill.

The kid they are blaming for it didn't even call for it to be a forecast. He just posted it how we post maps "Look at the Euro..." type bit.

Some fireman read it and took it as confirmation of a storm coming, posted on the Delaware firemans forum, some other dolts read that and they started pressing NWS Mount Holly over it.

That situation immediately followed the misplaced blame for the Atlanta NWS over the southern ice storm rubbing NWS employees the wrong way - and this thing took off.

Then we have the "vigilante" angle where any random met or fellow blogger feels it's now their duty to chastise others.

Sad...and I don't see the purpose here other than mets taking offense to anyone but them making an assumption about the weather.

Perhaps someone should remind them that they were hobbyists as well at one point before they became "professionals".

I think it's unfair to all hobbyists. You read some comments and these mets think all weather blogs should be removed as if they are criminal acts - and all model maps should become private data only for them.

Unreal.

Oh well. Rant over. Feel better.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
331. Pcroton
10:13 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
The wind threat is significant. I worry about areas such as Pennsylvania that had the ice storm (the bigger one weeks ago). Whatever trees "survived" - well, you find out that there are many that actually didn't...and they will come down in an event like this.

Also add in the warming, heavy rain, and heaving ground and it could be a problem here.

925mb winds kts, gfs/nam, 7am Friday.



They're going to mix down....
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
330. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:08 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 328. Pcroton:
Steven DiMartino %u200F@nynjpaweather 31m

Let me touch on this threat for next week.
First, yes there is potential for a winter storm. The 500 MB pattern is favorable for such a development as seen on the ECMWF.
HOWEVER, snow maps should not be made including those damn model snow maps.
I know some idiot will do it, but I must stress, WAY too early for snow maps or even guesses.
Just know that a major winter storm is possible for the middle of next week. We will work on details this weekend.



=====================

Ya know, I am tired of people bashing the snow maps and attacking people who post them. I post them. I use them to illustrate a storm's potential and path of a potential snow swath and I like to comment on it. I'd like to think I do a good job of not making them out to be some forecast that needs to be followed and rather use them as a tool to see what is going on out there.


Anyone who takes them as a forecast is a dingbat and that's on them and no one else. This crusade against the weather hobbyist is getting REALLY OLD....and it was old on DAY 1 when everyone went crazy about the one Euro map from a MONTH ago. All because some idiots on a fireman's forum in Delaware took a weather hobbyist's post about the Euro map, which by the way I saw the post the kid never made it out to be a forecast either, he just commented on it, we are still hearing about this?

Tired of this nonsense and belittlement...and even worse is how many people have nothing better to do but read someone else's complaints about it and then jump on top "yeah YEAH STOP DOING THAT" every time they see someone posting a model map.

People are losing their minds here with this. Meteorologists need to stick to forecasting the weather and stay out of public relations and conduct and stop telling people what they can and can not do.

It's ridiculous now.


Here's the 12Z GFS 120hr snowfall map for Italy.




Here's the CFS model run for March 24th, 2014. Looks like a Spring Time rain for us!





Pfffft....


I think what happens is someone see's the snow maps takes it to be official then bombs there local offices wanting answers

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
329. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:05 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 310. Pcroton:
A significant freezing rain threat exists for Thursday and Friday across the Great Lakes, southern Canada, and North East states.




Thursday:


Friday:


city of Toronto warnings as of now


3:59 PM EST Wednesday 19 February 2014
Rainfall warning
City of Toronto

Major storm bringing 25 - 50 mm of rain Thursday and Friday.

An Alberta clipper and Texas low will be tracking towards the Great Lakes where they will merge and rapidly intensify. This storm system will bring rising temperatures to Southern Ontario along with significant precipitation and strong winds.

Rain is expected to begin over Southwestern Ontario near midday Thursday then spread eastward to the Golden Horseshoe Thursday afternoon reaching the Kingston area early Thursday evening. There is a chance that a brief period of snow, freezing rain or ice pellets may precede the rain as temperatures rise from just below freezing to above.

Total rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm are expected over the warned areas, with the highest amounts forecast to be in the Windsor-Sarnia to Hamilton-Niagara corridor. In addition, thunderstorms will be possible over Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, and may result in locally higher rainfall amounts. Significant snow melt due to the rising temperatures will also be a concern.

As the rain comes to an end from west to east Friday, winds will increase out of the southwest with gusts to 70 or 80 km/h possible, particularly along the great lake shores.

Meteorologists continue to monitor the development of these weather systems.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
328. Pcroton
9:49 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Steven DiMartino %u200F@nynjpaweather 31m

Let me touch on this threat for next week.
First, yes there is potential for a winter storm. The 500 MB pattern is favorable for such a development as seen on the ECMWF.
HOWEVER, snow maps should not be made including those damn model snow maps.
I know some idiot will do it, but I must stress, WAY too early for snow maps or even guesses.
Just know that a major winter storm is possible for the middle of next week. We will work on details this weekend.



=====================

Ya know, I am tired of people bashing the snow maps and attacking people who post them. I post them. I use them to illustrate a storm's potential and path of a potential snow swath and I like to comment on it. I'd like to think I do a good job of not making them out to be some forecast that needs to be followed and rather use them as a tool to see what is going on out there.


Anyone who takes them as a forecast is a dingbat and that's on them and no one else. This crusade against the weather hobbyist is getting REALLY OLD....and it was old on DAY 1 when everyone went crazy about the one Euro map from a MONTH ago. All because some idiots on a fireman's forum in Delaware took a weather hobbyist's post about the Euro map, which by the way I saw the post the kid never made it out to be a forecast either, he just commented on it, we are still hearing about this?

Tired of this nonsense and belittlement...and even worse is how many people have nothing better to do but read someone else's complaints about it and then jump on top "yeah YEAH STOP DOING THAT" every time they see someone posting a model map.

People are losing their minds here with this. Meteorologists need to stick to forecasting the weather and stay out of public relations and conduct and stop telling people what they can and can not do.

It's ridiculous now.


Here's the 12Z GFS 120hr snowfall map for Italy.




Here's the CFS model run for March 24th, 2014. Looks like a Spring Time rain for us!





Pfffft....
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
327. Pcroton
9:15 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 325. NEwxguy:


Maybe warming in the upper and mid levels but at the service I"m still at 32 degrees.


That would be it. 3PM analysis:



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
326. Pcroton
9:13 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
http://water.weather.gov/precip/


Here's how we look precip wise...nationwide. That renewed western ridge is just awful for out west. They have made up some ground in the north west but...overall just not good.






=========================================



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
325. NEwxguy
9:06 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 321. Hurricane614:



Jealous. Severe weather is my thing, even more then winter storms. They are what got me interested in weather. Maybe next time.


Maybe warming in the upper and mid levels but at the service I"m still at 32 degrees.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
324. Pcroton
9:06 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 322. NEwxguy:
My guess it will come to an end about middle of March.What I'm curious is when the pattern changes for good,will it flip completely the other way?We seem to go from one extreme to the other and it locks in.


My hunch is that we do flip dramatically. Right into an early spring.

This is going to be a horrific mud season for many....

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
323. Pcroton
9:05 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 321. Hurricane614:



Jealous. Severe weather is my thing, even more then winter storms. They are what got me interested in weather. Maybe next time.


I think you still get thunder.

Yeah when the severe weather starts in we will cover that as well. I'm not purely a winter storm blogger. All weather is in play even when it's not right overhead.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
322. NEwxguy
9:02 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
My guess it will come to an end about middle of March.What I'm curious is when the pattern changes for good,will it flip completely the other way?We seem to go from one extreme to the other and it locks in.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
321. Hurricane614
9:01 PM GMT on February 19, 2014



Jealous. Severe weather is my thing, even more then winter storms. They are what got me interested in weather. Maybe next time.
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 509
320. Pcroton
8:58 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 313. NEwxguy:
briefly started off as snow and snowed hard for about 15 minutes,but now has transitioned to rain now for eastern Mass.


Yeah it's warming good now.






Quoting 319. Hurricane614:
Surprise here today. The temps rose slower then expected and instead of rain we got snow. Big flakes, and heavy too. Got about 2". Will it ever end?


Perhaps in 3 more weeks....or 4... or...
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
319. Hurricane614
8:57 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Surprise here today. The temps rose slower then expected and instead of rain we got snow. Big flakes, and heavy too. Got about 2". Will it ever end?
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 509
318. Pcroton
8:55 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Just a consistently recurring theme all winter long.













Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
317. Pcroton
8:50 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 316. wxgeek723:


Someone make it stop...


heheehehe

Spring will put an end to it shortly after that I would think. It's got to. Right??

Unless we're headed towards some "day after tomorrow" type stuff where the Pacific SST anomaly just keeps getting stronger and we're stuck in an endles "year without a summer" eastern trough.

Yeah...I'm gunna hold off on that thought.

===

Polar Vortex ‏@PolarVortex Feb 14

2:00pm on Valentine's Day and still no flowers from the @NWS. You guys know how cranky I get when my feelings are hurt.

===


And for the fifth time this season it shall be exerting it's will on the eastern US in under a week.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
316. wxgeek723
8:45 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 314. Pcroton:
Not only are the models looking at the middle of next week they are also looking at the 10 day - march 1st for another system.






We are going to be cold and stormy over the Feb 23-March 5 time frame.



Someone make it stop...
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
315. Pcroton
8:44 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
College of DuPage Models Page has upgraded their selections to include NAM4k and HRRR guidance.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
314. Pcroton
8:42 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Not only are the models looking at the middle of next week they are also looking at the 10 day - march 1st for another system.






We are going to be cold and stormy over the Feb 23-March 5 time frame.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
313. NEwxguy
8:41 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
briefly started off as snow and snowed hard for about 15 minutes,but now has transitioned to rain now for eastern Mass.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
312. Pcroton
8:32 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 308. PhillySnow:
I realized that if there is in fact a major storm, the airline will let me change my flight to the day before with no penalty fee. So it's wait and see.


Then you're in good shape there. I wouldn't worry much about it from now. Plenty of time to see things bounce around before settling into a solution. Hopefully later this weekend we get close.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
311. Pcroton
8:31 PM GMT on February 19, 2014






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
310. Pcroton
8:26 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
A significant freezing rain threat exists for Thursday and Friday across the Great Lakes, southern Canada, and North East states.




Thursday:


Friday:
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309. PhillySnow
8:26 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Oops - messed up somehow and ended up with duplicate post!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1273
308. PhillySnow
8:24 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 306. Pcroton:
brHonestly it's too early to even consider details. It would only track south or out to sea if it failed to phase properly and trying to figure that out anything more than 3 days in advance just isn't possible. I wouldn't be looking to change my plans based off a few model runs 7-8 days in advance of a system.

Thanks, P. There seems to be a good chance of this happening but...what actually happens we just have no clue. Flying blind at this stage.
I realized that if there is in fact a major storm, the airline will let me change my flight to the day before with no penalty fee. So it's wait and see.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1273
307. Pcroton
8:16 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
More record setting cold coming next week into the following week. Polar Vortex is dropping south again and pieces of it along with polar disturbances rotating around it's west side will give chances for coastal cyclogenesis.














February 27 - March 6th: Precip and Temps.






We might as well just accept that February 24-March 5 is going to be cold and stormy. I know everyone wants to know if it will feature big coastal snow storms. The threat is there, sure, and the pattern is there to support it but figuring out details is just not possible at this time frame. We should know better during the upcoming weekend what's really in store for us.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
306. Pcroton
8:01 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 303. tlawson48:
Used to love winter, now: Hate snowbanks over my head. Hate salt crud rusting my car. Hate ice dams on my roof. Hate 30 pound icicles falling from 5 stories up (where I work). Hate two hour commute in snow multiple days a week (over twice as long as normal). Hate blind intersection due to snow mountains that nearly result in a car wreck. I do love to complain about it though... :)


LOL!

Yeah it's a lot I'll admit. We recover quickly down here. We have all the huge snow banks but our streets and most rooftops are generally clear around here.



Quoting 305. PhillySnow:
I know it's too early, and..... Does this possible storm next week take a southern route? Can we tell if Tennessee may be involved? Can we tell timing? (Steve D. just wrote Tuesday into Wednesday.) I'm considering changing my flight just in case. I'd appreciate any insights anyone has on this. Thanks!


Honestly it's too early to even consider details. It would only track south or out to sea if it failed to phase properly and trying to figure that out anything more than 3 days in advance just isn't possible. I wouldn't be looking to change my plans based off a few model runs 7-8 days in advance of a system.

There seems to be a good chance of this happening but...what actually happens we just have no clue. Flying blind at this stage.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
305. PhillySnow
7:33 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
I know it's too early, and..... Does this possible storm next week take a southern route? Can we tell if Tennessee may be involved? Can we tell timing? (Steve D. just wrote Tuesday into Wednesday.) I'm considering changing my flight just in case. I'd appreciate any insights anyone has on this. Thanks!
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1273
304. PhillySnow
7:28 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
We had some surprise freezing rain here after all; just north of us. Lot of accidents, unfortunately.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1273
303. tlawson48
7:19 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Used to love winter, now: Hate snowbanks over my head. Hate salt crud rusting my car. Hate ice dams on my roof. Hate 30 pound icicles falling from 5 stories up (where I work). Hate two hour commute in snow multiple days a week (over twice as long as normal). Hate blind intersection due to snow mountains that nearly result in a car wreck. I do love to complain about it though... :)
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
302. Pcroton
7:15 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 300. StormTrackerScott:
Look at the Euro!

DAMM!! The Euro Bombs the eastern US next week. I can't believe I am seeing a storm this intense over the US on the Euro!!! Hows 986mb right over ncstorm and TA13 riding north toward Washington DC and rapidly intensifying with hurricane force winds. IF the Euro verifies it will put hurricane Irene to shame from 2011.


It's an interesting idea but I wouldn't get too deep into details at this stage. We've had a lot of model faulting this season up here beyond 72hrs, Scott.

It's not to be ignored but at this point I'd treat it as just the models showing the pattern is there and a disturbance has a chance to affect the region in the Tue-Wed time frame.

It's Wednesday...too early. Models will begin to waffle on it in the 3-5 day frame and then when we get within the 48-72 hour window we start to see things come together.


====================

Updates begin post #294

====================
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301. Pcroton
7:13 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Definitely odd:



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
300. StormTrackerScott
7:13 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Look at the Euro!

DAMM!! The Euro Bombs the eastern US next week. I can't believe I am seeing a storm this intense over the US on the Euro!!! Hows 986mb right over ncstorm and TA13 riding north toward Washington DC and rapidly intensifying with hurricane force winds. IF the Euro verifies it will put hurricane Irene to shame from 2011.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4768
299. Pcroton
7:11 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 295. GTOSnow:
We did get hit pretty good yesterday. I didn't really expect it to rotate in like it did. We had 6+ here at my work in Shrewsbury. It was a long day of plowing my office out, then heading home to do my driveway and clearing more ice dams on my roof. The repeated 4-5hr nights of sleep are starting to wear on me!! It is snowing here again now!!!!


Nice. That negtative tilt really did it's thing yesterday. Just shot that heavy blob of snow from eastern LI right up into your area.

NAM did well showing this early on.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
298. Pcroton
7:10 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Quoting 296. tlawson48:
Special Weather Statement for today for the evening commute:

ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW ALONG THE COAST AND 2-4 INCHES INLAND...THE SNOWFALL RATE AND
INTENSITY MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST MAY START OFF AS RAIN
AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW...WHICH WILL CUT ACCUMULATIONS DOWN A BIT.

Just like yesterday.


And then you got crushed.

This one isn't the same though. Should just move right on through. Yesterday's had a strong negative tilt and strong coastal development south of Long Island before being drawn up into your area.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
297. Pcroton
7:09 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Radar...convective bands forming south of Rhode Island. Been a common theme this February.


Snow Maps... Portland Maine doesn't have one out. Curious.














======================

Advisories for PA, Short Term:


.NOW...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING...SO ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS ON EXISTING SNOW
OR ICE COVER COULD CAUSE SOME MORE ICING. CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION IF
TRAVELING THIS AFTERNOON.

======================

NJ, HWO:

SOME DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IF A
FAST MOVING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES
THROUGH.


A FAST MOVING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER FRIDAY
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.


=======================

Taunton, MA: WWA

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT

* HAZARD TYPES...A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A COATING TO 3 INCHES
IN SPOTS...ALONG WITH A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.



=======================

Portland ME:


...FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL GENERATE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...

A VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE
WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO
MAINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW ALONG THE COAST AND 2-4 INCHES INLAND...THE SNOWFALL RATE AND
INTENSITY MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST MAY START OFF AS RAIN
AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW...WHICH WILL CUT ACCUMULATIONS DOWN A BIT.

==========

Caribou, ME

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...DOWN EAST MAINE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

=========

Southern CT: FR Rain Advisory



NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
128 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...VALLEYS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE COLDEST
VALLEYS.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 72 Comments: 12732
296. tlawson48
7:07 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
Special Weather Statement for today for the evening commute:

ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW ALONG THE COAST AND 2-4 INCHES INLAND...THE SNOWFALL RATE AND
INTENSITY MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST MAY START OFF AS RAIN
AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW...WHICH WILL CUT ACCUMULATIONS DOWN A BIT.

Just like yesterday.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
295. GTOSnow
7:04 PM GMT on February 19, 2014
We did get hit pretty good yesterday. I didn't really expect it to rotate in like it did. We had 6+ here at my work in Shrewsbury. It was a long day of plowing my office out, then heading home to do my driveway and clearing more ice dams on my roof. The repeated 4-5hr nights of sleep are starting to wear on me!! It is snowing here again now!!!!
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.