Major nor'easter Pounding eastern New England

By: Pcroton , 4:30 AM GMT on February 10, 2014

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Update 8PM 2/15

Major nor'easter still pounding Eastern New England.

UPDATES BEGIN post #1828








==========================================

Update 5AM 2/15


UPDATE BEGINS #1690

Significant Nor'Easter to affect the New England region - along with a moderate glancing blow for the upper middle atlantic states.






====================================

Update 5PM 2/14

Evening Updates begin on post 1636.

SE New England to get hit hard yet again. Moderate snowfall accumulations expected in the upper middle atlantic stretching westward.

HPC Maximum Reasonable Snowfall Potential (not a forecast).



===================================

Update 11AM 2/14

Seems with new 12Z Guidance that the storm threat is rising some for Friday into Saturday, particularly for SE New England.

12Z Model Updates being at post #1575
Previous storm snowfall reports post #1580



===========================================

Update 7AM 2/14

Updates Begin Post #1549

As one departs, Another looms. We have another system coming through later tonight into Saturday. While it appears to be forecasted as a light to moderate event a few well educated individuals were cautioning that models had been trending further north and it could end up a more significant event than thought. We will look into that as the day wears on.







New storm on the left in the center of the US.



974MB and dropping.



Reported totals thus far.



===============================================

Update 2PM 2/13

Afternoon update on Round 2, and a peek at Round 1 heading through New England begins on Post #1217.



Storm continues to wind up and pull away from the coast headed for New England.

A disturbance at 850MB is quickly intensifying over Virginia and will head towards NJ later this evening. Thunderstorms are firing within this area of disturbed weather.





A second potent burst of snow is likely late this evening through the upper Middle Atlantic. There is a threat of more significant accumulations in excess of 4" perhaps pushing 10" in the heavier bands and under convective cells with rates exceeding 2" per hour.


NAM Simulated Radar at 10PM:



Please refer to Post #1217 for more updates.
New WFO Snow Maps on Post #1224


==============================================

Update 5AM 2/13

Updates begin post #974.





Our storm is on track for a Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod course. Heavy snow has been falling but will transition over to a mix and then rain east of I95 as the morning progresses. Warm surface temps are along the coast and pushing inland. Aloft the freezing lines at 850 and 925mb have been lagging well behind so snow will be flying even as you go above freezing.

High winds along the coast as 50mph plus is already reported in Cape May. Dry air will be punching out the core of the storm this afternoon. A second round of snow comes later tonight with the development of a heavy deformation band.

================================================

Update 5AM 2/12

All model runs are posted in Comment #1.
Morning Update begins on Comment #570

Good Morning. Dire situation unfolding in the south this morning. SPC thermal layers support massive icing event.

Further north guidance has shifted East (sans Euro) for the upper middle atlantic coast. I still believe in the colder and further east solution....HOWEVER..Miller A storms are very unpredictable in that they do take an "S" track first bending west up the coast and then back East. Also of note is the polar disturbance will be phasing with the surface low today. Until that happens it is still very difficult to pinpoint a track. A later phase means a further East track. As of this morning that appears to be what is going to occur - and just as much the surface low is further south in the Gulf than guidance had suggested. We will be watching this unfold today and then we will have a good feel on the storm later in the afternoon.

I want to say thanks to all who contribute and follow along.

I also think it's prudent to suggest if you have a storm idea it is not yet time to shift that idea (be it west or east). Stick with your idea until we see the storm evolve into a single organized entity.



================================================= =

Update 6PM 2/11

Post #469 features latest WFO/HPC graphics.


While we have two model camps, one somewhat west and warmer, one somewhat east and colder, I continue to maintain my thoughts of the colder scenario playing out. At present the NWS has trended colder through New Jersey to the coastlines.

To be perfectly clear, while I believe in the colder scenario, it would be premature to put full confidence in that idea and discount the other model guidance and solutions. I think until the storm comes together tomorrow we don't really have a firm grasph on what track this storm will take. Even with a narrow guidance envelope any subtle change in the south can lead to a 20-30 mile difference up north very easily and thus dramatically shift the border zone forecasts, be it coastlines, or western edges of the precip shield.

To help us out in that department NOAA is launching Hurricane Hunter missions into the Gulf of Mexico tonight at 10PM and the Altantic Coastlines tomorrow. The data will feed into the models (not in time for 0Z tonight runs) and we will have much better guidance to follow for tomorrow's 12Z Runs.

One note about this: It shows just how serious this event is going to be and just how damaging the storm may be including high wind threats. They do not do this for your average gale. They only go for the big fish in winter. So it is an ominous sign they see something they haven't yet expressed to us and they feel the need to sample it.

==

000
NOUS42 KNHC 101620
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1120 AM EST MON 10 FEBRUARY 2014
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2014
WSPOD NUMBER.....13-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 71--
A. A66/ DROP 9(28.2N 93.8W)/ 12/0000Z
B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK66
C. 11/2000Z
D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/0200Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. A62/ DROP 7(34.0N 72.3W)/ 13/0000Z

===========================

Update 5AM 2/11

Good Morning. Our storm continues to develop and our disturbances have entered a denser sounding network. This means we will have much better data starting with today's 12Z Model runs.




We are looking at a severe icing event for the SE states and some of the totals make my stomach turn.

Further north we are dealing with heavy snows and the questions of changeovers, when, where, how much...are still left unanswered at this time.


Post #227 begins Today's updates.

Post #1 has a list of archived model runs.

=======================================

Update 4PM 2/10

Guidance continues to point towards a high impact wide reaching nor'easter.

The storm's main components are all coming together nicely.



All relevant model runs are in post #1 in the comments section.

Morning updates began on post #13



Evening updates being on post #136

==========================

Update 8AM, 2/10.

Threat for severe nor'easter has grown. A storm featuring very heavy wet snow, heavy sleet, and heavy freezing rain along with high winds and coastal flooding is a good possibility.

Please refer to Post #1 in the blog for latest model runs.

This mornings updates begin on Post #13

==========================

2/9 - 1130PM

The threat of a major winter storm bearing down on the region from late Wednesday through Thursday has risen significantly.

Future model runs and maps will be posted within the comments section as the system evolves. Refer to the latest comments for the most up to date information.

Remember, the models do not drive the weather, and our emotions do not decide which model run is the correct one. They are a tool, not a forecast, yet with them in decent agreement here they are tough to ignore now that we are within the 72 hour window.

At this point don't focus too much on exact track or intensity. The models will begin to tighten up once we enter the 48 hour window. Fine tuning of rain/snow lines in sensitive areas are best left to 24 hours and in. Monday will be a big day to answer questions on just how big of an impact this system will bring to the region. There is still a wide range of final solutions in play. I think our best bet to start getting confident will be some time late on Monday.

If you wish to read up on Sunday's discussion and get caught up on why Sunday's system did not turn into the major winter storm we once thought it would and how that plays into looking forward to this coming event please read Sunday's short blog entry.


Here are your model runs (all in comment #1), three suites where applicable, both 00Z and 12Z runs from 2/9 and the 00Z 2/10 runs. I felt it was important to include all 3 runs just to give everyone a look into how things have evolved. I was hoping to have the full suite of 2/10 00Z runs included but these things take time to become available and we can address them in the morning.

Remember, we're not quite there yet, but the NWS has raised some early warnings in the form of area HWO's calling for 6" or more of snow. The threat is real but is not confirmed at this time. This all comes down to timing the phasing of the polar and southern stream energy. We won't have a good handle on that for at least another 24 hours.

Keep checking in for updates as new information becomes available.

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1847. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:08 PM GMT on February 16, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
1846. goofyrider
1:51 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Dodger town well the old one. Nice to be back. Now if they can find the gate.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2887
1845. Matlack
1:40 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Quoting 1837. goofyrider:
Descending to 27, 000 ft clear as a bell to the west. Guess we are over Md. Near Susquehanna. River north of I 95


Where were you Goofy?
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
1844. noreasterrrrr
1:35 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Can get more snow here in nyc area too monday night the storm is?
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
1843. PengSnow
1:32 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
expect winter weather advisories from Indiana tomorrow early am, then moving eastward where you will see WSW by tomorrow late afternoon evening progressing eastward and by Philly early AM at the latest Monday morning.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 445
1842. rod2635
1:16 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Quoting 1840. Pcroton:
The reason this storm has such a perfect appearance is it is vertically stacked.


Surface:





850MB:






700MB:









================================
UPDATES BEGIN POST 1828

================================





beautiful images. nature is a work of art, showing her stuff here.
Member Since: January 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 375
1841. Pcroton
1:10 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Final hit... and I will see you all tomorrow. New blog entry looking at Monday night and the warmup.





Still lingering overhead. Still moderate snow.

Looks like we'll stretch to just about 3".

Puts us pretty high on the year.

1.5, 3.0, 5.5, 14, 16, 2, 2, 8, 3, 9, 3 = 67

==========================

.CLIMATE...
THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF FEBRUARY HAVE AVERAGED 3 (SOUTH) TO 6 (NORTH)
DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.

SEASONAL SNOW TOTALS AND RANKING AS OF 1 PM.

PHL 54.8 IS #5 OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1884

1. 78.7 2009-10
2. 65.5 1995-96
3. 55.4 1898-99
4. 54.9 1977-78
5. 54.8 2013-14

ABE 64.0 IS #5 OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1922 (INCL 1.1 1AM-1PM)

1. 75.4 1993-94
2. 71.4 1995-96
3. 67.2 1966-67
4. 65.2 1960-61
5. 64.0 2013-14


ILG 44.9 IS #6 OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1894

1. 72.8 2009-10
2. 49.5 1957-58
3. 48.8 1906-07 (MISSING DAYS)
4. 46.1 2002-03
5. 45.7 1977-78
6. 44.9 2013-14


ACY 26.5 RANKED 18. OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1874.


FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY THROUGH 1PM SATURDAY 2/15/14

PHL 17.7 RANKED 11TH AND SURE TO VAULT TOP 10...PROBABLY TUESDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY TOP 7.

ABE 33.9 RANKED #2 BEHIND THE 42.9 OF 2010.

ILG 15.5 RANKED #12




=========================================

Evening Updates begin on Post #1828

=========================================





.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1840. Pcroton
1:02 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
The reason this storm has such a perfect appearance is it is vertically stacked.


Surface:





850MB:






700MB:









================================
UPDATES BEGIN POST 1828

================================



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1839. originalLT
1:02 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Same for me Max, right about 1".--really underperformed here in Sw CT.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7914
1838. noreasterrrrr
1:01 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Looking like could be a nice storm monday night..maybe 4 inches...also the warm up thats on its way that has been so well advertised...we now know when it ends..right before february is over..thrn stormy first half march
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
1837. goofyrider
1:00 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Descending to 27, 000 ft clear as a bell to the west. Guess we are over Md. Near Susquehanna. River north of I 95
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2887
1836. Pcroton
12:53 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Quoting 1834. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
we didn't even got to one inch... wow.


Amazing, really.

Will be curious to see the snowfall swath tomorrow from NWS.


========================
Evening Updates post #1828
Eastern New England getting hammered
========================

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1835. Pcroton
12:52 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Quoting 1832. originalLT:
"P", even in the tail-end of the storm, your snow lasted longer than mine! I'm done and it's still snowing by you! Some guys have all the luck!


It's an interesting tradeoff where I live LT. Sometimes we get shafted by I95... and other times we just bullseye time and again.

Very dynamic location.
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1834. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:52 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
we didn't even got to one inch... wow.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
1833. Pcroton
12:51 AM GMT on February 16, 2014






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1832. originalLT
12:50 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
"P", even in the tail-end of the storm, your snow lasted longer than mine! I'm done and it's still snowing by you! Some guys have all the luck!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7914
1831. Pcroton
12:48 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Awesome totals on the models...





















Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1830. Pcroton
12:40 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
INCREDIBLE storm.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1829. Pcroton
12:37 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Quoting 1827. GTOSnow:
We are really left out up here, I know you said to wait until tonight, but it looks to be pulling out of here pretty quick. Down south is doing well though, 6.5" in Fall River, Ma and still solidly in it. Oh well it will be a quick clean up tomorrow thankfully. We have maybe 2" here.


Remember the storm is going to be turning northward and that is when maybe some of the bands to the south push back up into your region. You're certainly on the edge though.

SREFS:


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1828. Pcroton
12:34 AM GMT on February 16, 2014








Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1827. GTOSnow
12:32 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
We are really left out up here, I know you said to wait until tonight, but it looks to be pulling out of here pretty quick. Down south is doing well though, 6.5" in Fall River, Ma and still solidly in it. Oh well it will be a quick clean up tomorrow thankfully. We have maybe 2" here.
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
1826. Pcroton
12:30 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
As of 630 they were looking for another inch.
NWS going for 1-3" (light accumulation possible) for Monday night at this time.



NOW
THE SNOW WILL END GRADUALLY BETWEEN NOW AND 800 PM. AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. ALSO, THE VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT, USE EXTRA CARE AND BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.


NJZ013-160900-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREEHOLD
630 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014


MONDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY. SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.

TUESDAY
CLOUDY WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1825. Pcroton
12:28 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Bands still pulling through west to east. You can really see the structures now.




2.5" (3.5" on snow pack).

Probably has another hour in it.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1824. Pcroton
12:10 AM GMT on February 16, 2014


Love how it always ends in my county last....
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1823. Pcroton
12:09 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Quoting 1821. TheF1Man:


Delayed spring was probably the last thing I wanted to hear. I always wish for snow, but when we start get steady 40s, it's just an awkward temperature. We had a slow spring last year I think? Cold, cold rains. I could be thinking of another year though.


Yeah we had a warm feb and then March dragged on as March into mid April... then April dragged on until June 20th - cold and rain. Then 4 weeks of searing heat. Then the cold front and we had a very cool aug-sept. Warm first half of Oct - and been cold ever since.

Cold year overall.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1822. Pcroton
12:08 AM GMT on February 16, 2014


Death throws. 2" (3" on snow pack), moderate snow, 30F.


About half of what i thought the storm could do. Never underestimate daytime....and we tend to forget more often than not.



Good point, LT - nor the NE side of the low with all that intense convection!






===

Peng, we shall see. Starts getting borderline out East here now. Has to come in for night time and be perfect. Monday night looks like a good chance.



==

HI AQUA!!!
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1821. TheF1Man
12:06 AM GMT on February 16, 2014
Quoting 1818. PengSnow:
With the great lakes ice continue to grow, this is going to play a big part into weather---believe it or not, could delay a spring warm up and lead to some unusual instability. Additionally the shipping of supplies and other things could affect the economy.

Again and i have cautioned on this and we have yet to see it, we could have some very powerful weather in the next few weeks.

Monday-Tuesday confidence is HIGH for a decent swath of snow. The snow cover and cold nights could keep us most/all in the snow north of I68/route 50.


Delayed spring was probably the last thing I wanted to hear. I always wish for snow, but when we start get steady 40s, it's just an awkward temperature. We had a slow spring last year I think? Cold, cold rains. I could be thinking of another year though.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
1820. aquak9
11:32 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
a gorgeous evening in Jacksonville...to wait on a verdict.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
1819. PhillySnow
11:29 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
We're all done here. A sweet, little snow. Didn't stick enough to even measure it, but the trees have a covering.

I'm sorry about the snow hole near you, LT! We often have that where we're just too warm or we end up in the dry slot. Not sure why that is.

P - It seems to me we had a couple of daytime storms this year. There was that one in January where it started snowing in the morning and 20 minutes later the roads were so bad that cars were stuck all over the place. It was amazing. That was the first one being called "overperforming."
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1253
1818. PengSnow
11:21 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
With the great lakes ice continue to grow, this is going to play a big part into weather---believe it or not, could delay a spring warm up and lead to some unusual instability. Additionally the shipping of supplies and other things could affect the economy.

Again and i have cautioned on this and we have yet to see it, we could have some very powerful weather in the next few weeks.

Monday-Tuesday confidence is HIGH for a decent swath of snow. The snow cover and cold nights could keep us most/all in the snow north of I68/route 50.
Member Since: January 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 445
1817. originalLT
11:12 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Wouldn't like to be on a ship in that wind field about 300 miles or so South/Southwest of that low's center! I know there are cruise ships out there on their way back to the NYC area and Baltimore. tell you more later!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7914
1816. Pcroton
11:04 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Quoting 1813. originalLT:
I wish that dark area would move NNE, but it's not. :(


Yeah...tough sell.


Quoting 1814. GTOSnow:
I am within that pink bubble, the in laws are in the blue. It seems like the precip shield is colapsing towards the coast up here though and I might be out of it. They are saying a band should set up right over my area though based on the latest models. I guess I'll wait and see!


You probably won't know for many hours what to really expect on the back edge of this thing. It has a long way to go to get into your area for that. Once the low is SE or E of you then you can get a better idea. Going to happen over night.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1815. Pcroton
11:02 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Storm has an eye. Storm is very well stacked. 700MB low near NJ coast keeping lift for my region. Until that departs we're good for a while longer.


















Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1814. GTOSnow
11:02 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
I am within that pink bubble, the in laws are in the blue. It seems like the precip shield is colapsing towards the coast up here though and I might be out of it. They are saying a band should set up right over my area though based on the latest models. I guess I'll wait and see!
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
1813. originalLT
10:56 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
I wish that dark area would move NNE, but it's not. :(
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7914
1812. Pcroton
10:55 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
GFS did well with this storm past 24 hours. CMC had this second big one on it's maps just before we got hit with the first one. CMC has been very impressive this winter.



Mesoscale discussion 0107
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0204 pm cst sat feb 15 2014

areas affected...Portions of coastal new england...Interior srn new
england...Ern tip of long island

concerning...Heavy snow

valid 152004z - 160200z

summary...Heavy snow...With rates exceeding 1 inch per hour...Will
develop newd into the evening hours.

Discussion...Satellite imagery and sfc obs indicate intense
cyclogenesis commencing off the mid atlantic coast...As the gap
between a powerful shortwave trough progressing newd off the nc
coast and a coastal baroclinic zone narrows. Sfc low pressure
analyzed off the va coast will rapidly deepen through tonight as it
develops newd...While strong/deep frontogenetic circulations
penetrating inland combine with strong isentropic ascent over
sufficiently cold thermal profiles for heavy snow across much of the
discussion area. Moderate snow is ongoing across coastal srn new
england...And heavy snow will likely develop newd from the ern tip
of long island into srn new england around 21-23z. Heavy snow will
spread farther ne through the evening...Especially affecting areas
near and ne of portland maine around/after 01-03z. With the strong
ascent intercepting 50-100-mb-deep dendritic growth zones centered
around h6...Snowfall rates aoa 1 inch/hour will be common into the
evening.

Coastal ma and vicinity -- especially e of a line from boston to
providence including cape cod -- will likely be the focus for the
highest snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour...Which are expected
to occur around 23-03z. These areas will be in closest proximity to
the track of the sfc low and accompanying strongest ascent...And an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with the highest of these
rates. Rain may initially occur with the precipitation over cape cod
through late afternoon. However...Descending wet-bulb freezing
heights will give way to a heavy wet snow by early evening while
sub-freezing isothermal layers aob h7 promote efficient snow
aggregation. Also...Strong winds nw of the low track will yield
blowing/drifting snow and areas of blizzard conditions.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1811. originalLT
10:55 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Yeah, you are getting nice echoes , of course, me not so much!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7914
1810. Pcroton
10:53 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Snowing very heavily now. Easily over 1" per hour.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1809. cooldogs13
10:53 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
This is looking like only 1 inch for us in brick once it turned to snow it's been all light and very fine flakes not sticking to anything boooo
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 388
1808. Pcroton
10:51 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Yeah LT looks like the good old Stamford snow hole came into play again.

Looking more like you're done by 7PM. Today's sun just killed this event. All about timing this time of year and we just did not have it.






Looks like I'll be part of the tail end for the western zones for this storm. My guess is we get between 2-3" total on surfaces but no more.


Quoting 1806. noreasterrrrr:
Seems like around me back edge 're developing a bit and getting heavier


Yeah they build and wane but it's done for.

Quoting 1807. procharged:
Went to parlmerton pa this morning got there around 8:00 working on race car. Getting ready to go to valdosta georgia next week. it was snowing all morning. Left around 1:00 was still coming down. They got a tremendous amount of snow up there from thurs storm. There was 2 foot on top of roofs and some with even more. Snow was piled everywhere. They must not have any salt up there roads were horrible.


A lot of towns were certainly over using salt and sand earlier in the season...with that whole idea that you gotta use your supply to get renewed budget next year. Now they've run out.

That storm was certainly impressive. Imagine if that 2nd disturbance associated with the 850mb had been snow for us... we too would have been 20" or so by storm end.

As it is, and I am a bit confused by this since I measured 9" total, towns just barely north of me who reported identical conditions the whole tsorm, reported 3-4" more than. I don't know if I goofed on measuring properly during the event (the whole measure every 4 hours, wipe it clean, repeat)...or if they goofed being too aggressive with that. I've driven north. I saw no difference.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1806. noreasterrrrr
10:36 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Seems like around me back edge 're developing a bit and getting heavier
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
1805. originalLT
10:33 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Yeah"P" I see that on radar the heavier signals are over you and moving generally East, just South of me, but you are right, they pop up and die out quickly
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7914
1804. Pcroton
10:27 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Quoting 1801. originalLT:
Hi "P", no way we get 3-6" here in SW, CT.Have only about 1/2 to 3/4" , and only very light snows remain. I think 1-2" or so is more like it. All the heavy "stuff "is East of us. Could though see that 6-10" for extreme Eastern L.I. and CT. up thru Rhode Island. Boston area will get creamed though!


Probably got about 3 hours left in it for you LT. Looking like 2 and change for me. Depends on how the bands surge and wane.

We know at this point no surprises. The storm has begun it's steady movement.






Quoting 1802. procharged:
About a half inch here in swedesboro and it's just stopped. This again is a mass storm. Mon setup is just a nuisance system. And then all the snowpack will be gone by the end of the week. Temps will warm, at first it looked for about 5 days but it's looking longer than that probably 7 or 8 days. Then some cooling but only to normal temps. Winter looks like its going to be over for us but not by a long shot for north and west of newyork.


Getting a heavy hit here with a solid band. Got an inch and it's snowing at inch-per-hour rate at this moment - but who knows how long that lasts.



These things develop and then die and then redevelop.

=====

I agree it looks like Spring is here. Can't count out Monday's system just yet with varying ideas floating around from 1-3" and others with 4" or more. Let's let that one lie for now. Also it comes in at night (or so it seems at this point) and it will be cold so it will stick.

Unlike today which came in during the day and thus we all missed out on about 1-3" additional accumulation. That's where the "surprise" factor would have come from for us with this storm but as we have seen even with big storms in January if it comes in during the morning we never really start to see the snow pile up until evening. The significant 6" plus totals always was meant to be for eastern New England.

This storm reminded me of the March storms last year where it snowed all day but the higher sun angle and warm surface temps prevented any sticking.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1803. Pcroton
10:16 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Getting a good hit of snow now. Accumulating quickly. Have slipped to 30F.





Winds getting gusty we're hitting mid 20s here.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1801. originalLT
10:07 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Hi "P", no way we get 3-6" here in SW, CT.Have only about 1/2 to 3/4" , and only very light snows remain. I think 1-2" or so is more like it. All the heavy "stuff "is East of us. Could though see that 6-10" for extreme Eastern L.I. and CT. up thru Rhode Island. Boston area will get creamed though!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7914
1800. Pcroton
10:00 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Good point, Philly. I already scraped the first half inch and got the slush out of the road gutter. Don't want it locking up.

Presently there is a half inch fresh on the surfaces, and aroun 1.5" fresh on the cold snow pack in a well shaded area.

I think now that we see it, sans some late storm band reforming and sticking around an extra hour near the coast, what we see is what we get.

The 2-4" looks to verify from Philly through NJ and the 3-6" for NYC/W CT/LI.. and 6-10" eastern LI eastern CT.

Had wondered about a surprise a few times but every time I saw something that leaned towards the chance - a few hours later it was obvious it wasn't there to be had.

Still an amazing storm yet again.

And we got another coming Monday night into Tuesday.

Then we warm...at least for a while.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381
1799. PhillySnow
9:30 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Quoting 1790. originalLT:
Hey "P", and all, well even in the "snow hole" of Stamford CT. it is snowing, light to mod., small flakes, visibility went way down, maybe 1/3 to 1/2 mile. Temp. down to, now 32.0F even. Barometer, falling, 29.61" Wind mostly N at 7-12mph. The precipitation shield has filled in nicely, maybe we will get 3-5" or so, by midnight.
Good luck, LT! I'm glad it's coming your way.

After hours of very light snow, it's now snowing moderately here. 29.3F I think we have a couple of hours left, so hopefully a few inches!

We're going down to 19F tonight. People are going to be surprised to find the slush turned to solid ice.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1253
1798. goofyrider
9:17 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Snow started at 15:00. Not sticking yet. Last temps in upper levels. Borderline. Not much moisture ( 0.5-0.6. ). 700 mb low riding shore line see if this zone results in higher amounts if lower levels cool from -2 -4 to -7 to - 9. GS needs to be cooler.

Sunny clear skies temp low 70's. Hate to leave Treasure Coast. Still wearing flips if snow over the top= cold wet feet.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2887
1797. Pcroton
9:03 PM GMT on February 15, 2014
Not sure how far north the snow band gets, 614.



It has filled in now. Now we can begin to watch motion. It has expanded northward but that will stop at some point then it all pulls East. Might be at that point or near it right around now.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 66 Comments: 11381

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.