Snowmageddon or Snow Showers?

By: Pcroton , 1:14 PM GMT on February 06, 2014

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As we've seen all winter long the models will pick up on and maintain a specific disturbance for several days in the long range, the media, the NWS, and us hobbyists will talk and discuss and post model runs and maps thinking storm.

Then we reach the medium range of 48-120hrs and the models start to waver, some losing the storm, some sending it far north, others far south, and some times splitting the energy preventing a signifcant event from unfolding. Most who were talking up a storm begin dropping the storm idea as a result.

Short term arrives and the models start to latch back onto an event, showing a more organized solution back in the region, and forecasters and hobbyists alike begin to revert their thinking back to a storm solution.

We saw this occur yesterday with the NWS backing entirely off a storm solution in the morning and then opening the door back up to the idea in the afternoon and evening.

This upcoming period of disturbances, 3 over the next 10 days, will be no different. They will come and go on the models in various forms and we will discuss them and waver along back and forth with the guidance until we see something we like and we will throw out our ideas with confidence with or without model support.

While thoughts of Snowmageddon have certainly waned for this weekend there will be a disturbance driving through the region around Sunday and the NWS is now supportive of this idea in zone forecast products after back tracking last night to open the door back up a little for the idea of a storm system.

Modeling has come back a little as well but it appears Sunday will be a light to moderate event as energy is shown as disorganized on the model runs with a piece just off shore and a piece just inland not quite being able to hook up for a more significant event. Being 72 hours out I am still a little uncomfortable trusting model guidance as I have noticed we have been generally held to 48 hours and in as far as confidence goes all winter long. We've seen these systems modeled weakly 72 hours out and the 36 hours out they start to look a whole lot better.

Just yesterday we had more well defined systems but well outside the region...but this morning less defined yet going right through the region. This I feel means the models are still not geting the necessary data to spit out a viable solution. We should see this improve with the 12Z runs today, more in tonights 0Z runs, but I think Friday's 12Z runs are where it's at in terms of "Ok, now we have a model solution we can trust and discuss and forecast from."

The GFS for Wednesday which I believe might be more interesting than we are being led on to definitely paints the picture of a large storm. We've seen these modeled south recently only to creep northward over time and end up as a major player. Stay tuned


Here is the CPC 6-10 day precip and temperature maps as of 2/6. Cold air and moisture spell high chances of stormy weather.







Model runs to follow in the comments section.

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291. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:02 PM GMT on February 09, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
290. cchamp6
12:58 PM GMT on February 09, 2014
Didnt go below zero this morning. Currently 6. Looks like a couple inches tonight maybe 3 or 4 if a little more moisture gets pulled in. Storm is moving too fast for that I think.

Thoughts on the NAO going negative right about the time most of us are ready for warmth? I have a feeling one good storm before March and then a pattern change.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
289. PhillySnow
12:36 PM GMT on February 09, 2014
24F here; expecting light snow this afternoon. Mt. Holly has us with a snow to rain scenario for Wednesday/Thursday, but their discussion says low confidence in forecast. They also mention the possibility of a period of ice.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1233
288. wxgeek723
7:16 AM GMT on February 09, 2014
Slightly off the topic of snow tomorrow and this week but did anybody else know about this link tucked away on the Mt. Holly page? Stumbled on it by accident, it's an all encompassing day to day almanac of weather events in the Mt. Holly CWA. Features just about everything you can think of - big events like hurricanes, snowstorms, and tornadoes as well as records both monthly and daily relating to precip, temperature, pressure, and tides (even blowout tides!). Some of them go as far back to colonial times with the 1775 Independence hurricane. The most recent entry appears to be from 2003, so it probably hasn't been touched in several years. Has a few issues with questionable accuracy, a few irrelevant entries, and few entries with a dearth of info where there maybe should be more, but overall very interesting.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3547
287. noreasterrrrr
1:06 AM GMT on February 09, 2014
Im so sad. We shoulda been talking about heavy snow bands tonight...mesobanding. ..2-3"+ snow rates per hour. Thunder snow....ahhhhhhhh. so close but so far. This is the winter to get that storm. Its in the DNA this winter season!! We've had spectacular overachieving storms left and right...its fitting for us to get the big one. Mother nature teased us this weekend with a near miss...but IT WILL COME IN THE COMING WEEKS..IT WILL BE OURS HERE WHERE IT BELONGS AND WE WILL BE HERE TO TRACK IT!
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
286. noreasterrrrr
12:51 AM GMT on February 09, 2014
As u said before lets wait til monday. I personally feel it will be a moderate snow around here with some mixing maybe. But I really have a hunch that we will have our biggest snow of the year in early march.
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
285. Pcroton
12:44 AM GMT on February 09, 2014
UPTON NY

Model consensus remains for low pres to develop over the sern conus
and track up the coast wed ngt thru fri. The ecmwf has remained the
fastest soln. With the gfs now trending faster...Have sided with the
faster soln. 12z ecmwf would be snow interior and snow to rain/mix
at the coasts. The exact track/timing still to be determined this
far out however as evidenced by the large spread in the
ensembles.


=================
Sterling VA

model spread is above average from wednesday and beyond leading to a
low confidence forecast. Similar to wpc...Have chance pops from
wednesday afternoon until friday. It is important to stress that it
will not be precipitating /i.E. Raining or snowing/ during this
entire time period...But that there is at least a chance of
something falling somewhere in that timeframe.

The models disagree on the timing of multiple shortwaves and
potential interaction of the northern and southern branches of the
jet stream mid-late week. The ecmwf and its ensembles through the
00z model cycle last night have consistently been more amplified
with the jet stream at 250 mb but quicker at 500 mb...While the gfs
and its ensembles are flatter with the jet stream at 250 mb but
slower at 500 mb. The result is that the ecmwf camp has quicker
cyclogenesis along the southeast coast with precipitation moving
over the area while cold air is still in place...While the gfs camp
does not have low pressure forming/precip developing until the cold
air is mostly eroded. Have stuck with wpc/a blend of the two
camps...Which results in a chance of rain and/or snow sometime late
wednesday through friday.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
284. Pcroton
12:41 AM GMT on February 09, 2014
Mount Holly on the mid week storm...


The 1200 utc ecmwf remains consistent with previous model runs in
bringing us a northeaster for late wednesday into thursday. The
gfs continues to fluctuate between different solutions from run to
run. The 1200 utc gfs affects our region with a coastal storm
around thursday night. We will continue to favor the ecmwf
solution. As a result, we will indicate an increasing chance for
snow on wednesday from south to north. We will carry a chance of
snow from wednesday night into thursday. The ecmwf continues to
suggest that the low may approach close enough to the the coast to
cause a mix to rain on the coastal plain for a time from late
wednesday night into thursday morning. It appears as though any
precipitation would taper to showers as the low moves away to our
northeast on thursday afternoon and thursday night.

There remains the potential for some significant snow in our
region from late wednesday into thursday. Of course, it is still
difficult to pin down any details 4 to 5 days in advance.

Once the coastal system moves toward and past atlantic canada
late in the week, we should experience a quiet period of weather
with temperatures possibly approaching normal. A cold front may
arrive on friday night or saturday but it does not appear as
though it will have a great deal of moisture associated with it.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
283. Pcroton
12:40 AM GMT on February 09, 2014
Obviously we have a lot to get through. We couldn't even pinpoint this weekend from 12 hours out at a time. So I'm not going to even think about the mid week until we get closer. If the storm is still on the models and threatening the area on Monday without any runs between now and then losing it or swinging it wide right or anything...then I think we'll have something to talk about.

Meanwhile the NWS backed way off for both Sunday and for the mid week system. Perhaps a more conservative forecaster did the zone product this evening. Hardly ominous.


SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
SNOW 70 PERCENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND
AN INCH. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...
BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW
90 PERCENT.


==========

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
282. TheF1Man
12:23 AM GMT on February 09, 2014
Hey P, thanks for the clarification back on post #270.

That band in southern NJ looks sad.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
281. noreasterrrrr
11:54 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
At least we get a few inches tomorrow..freshen up everything and add to the snowpack....itl then be cold early next week right up until the storm. The stage will be set.
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
280. noreasterrrrr
11:53 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Sounds like a plan
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
279. Pcroton
11:43 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Well, we can scratch tonight off the list.

There's the band of snow the models showed. About 10% of what they had in store for us.






Now it's all about Sunday evening.

Then on Monday we can start to really discuss the bigger storm.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
278. Pcroton
10:40 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
And for something different... WRF and NMM3 for Sunday Evening.

It's just an unfortunately dry system. 0.2-0.4" qpf range all models.






And here are your GFS/NAM snow maps. I had been hesitent to post them because the models were just all over the place up until now - so it served no purpose.






The above maps show why the HPC is a bit out to lunch with excluding southern half of NJ to the coasts from the higher probability snow totals on Sunday. I firmly believe they based their graphic off of the GFS thermals and therefore were expecting melting at the surface.

GFS has a known bias and corrects late which in recent posts we saw it do just that.

As discussed northern DE would be in on the action if the storm lined up as expected.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
277. Pcroton
10:10 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
How close?

Had the storm off the East Coast been in about Alabama - where it was last evening... with the polar disturbance where it is now - we get a huge coastal storm.

That's it. That's the entire difference why we're looking at snow showers today instead of 12" or more.

The 2-4" Sunday thing is not a part of this, it is a separate disturbance.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
276. Pcroton
10:08 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
So why no big storm today? That's easy to see now.

In the long range the models expected the two circled disturbances to interact and phase. Had they done so we would have had a big storm hit the region. That's it...nothing fancy. 7 days out they saw these two disturbances lined up. 3 days ago they no longer saw it. That's why we are where we are. Had these two aligned (missed by 24 hours) you get a big winter storm.








Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
275. Pcroton
10:02 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Quoting 261. jrzyshore:


The sky in Brick has the "look" of snow....you all know that "look" ? Maybe we squeeze a little dusting out of that !!!!


My area here in TF has the look in all directions except straight up.

Clear sky above surrounded by a ring of clouds horizon point up to 30 degrees. Pretty funny.

Today's hopeful band croaked entirely. Score one for last nights SREFs showing that. NAM faults today for trying to bring it north.

I thought it would continue north. Culprit appears to be dry airmass north of the Chesapeak due to last nights ice cold temps.


Nice nationwide boundary with multiple disturbances riding along it.

500MB:




700MB:




Radar: Our Sunday system near Nebraska?




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
274. Pcroton
9:53 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Annnnd just because it's of course on our minds... here is the 12Z models for the mid-late week storm.



Don't try to take much from this folks other than that the models have been pretty similiar in showing a large storm affecting the region.

Other than a few runs being wide right the majority of the runs have clustered right off the DE coastline there. If one wanted to draw a conclusion we are probably looking at a heavy snow to heavy ice to heavy rain event for a lot of folks. Maybe some lucky ones would hold on to the cold for all snow.

Either way, TOO EARLY, but I am not discouraging watching one bit. Enjoy and feel free to post any comments about it.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
273. Pcroton
9:48 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
18Z GFS once again unimpressed with Sunday. About all it's done is mirrored the proper cooler NAM temps for the event. I wouldn't worry so much about the HPC graphic showing southern NJ getting a lot less...it is just another tool to use is all. Seen the NWS ignore them plenty of times.








With less and less moisture who can even say what anyone gets anymore. Looking like 2-4" around the area but if someone busted with 1" it wouldn't surprise me (far southern NJ) and if someone ended up near 6" in northern NJ towards Boston I wouldn't exactly be surprised either - especially if a trough does form between the offshore and advancing lows - which the GEFS does show. Could provide a late lifting burst for the eastern half of New England (further south the better).

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
272. Pcroton
9:42 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Still feel like it's too early to discuss particulars on Wed-Thurs... but Steve seems confident - and he was one of the first to be confident in the non-sunday storm.

======

Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 21m

The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensembles is a snow to ice to some rain event. Don't underestimate low level cold air!!

For Wednesday to Thursday, the latest ECMWF strongly suggest a prolonged period of wet snow. Totals uncertain. Likely mixing with rain.

======

I still must say that Monday is the day models should tighten up more...and we'll see the players on the imagery as well.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
271. Pcroton
9:39 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Here are some SREF outputs for the Sunday evening system:









Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
270. Pcroton
9:32 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Hello F1. Depepnding on the model run you look at it's either a Wed-Thur event or in the case of the GFS a Thur-Fri event.

I wouldn't put much faith in the models at this point. Seems a lot of folks including the NWS trying to extract a forecast from some wide ranging overall guidance...with ensemble members that range anywhere from epic snow to entirely dry. So I don't trust it one bit especially since the models just showed us they're not doing too well at all - still trying to nail down Sunday's event even at this rate!


Speaking of the HPC the mid week storm has them exicted already. Look at the 0Z Tue - 0Z Wednesday snowfall potential. Keep in mind this is just the onset at this point and the storm duration lasts well into Thursday. This is just the period ending 0Z Wednesday (the latest the HPC looks ahead).







Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
269. TheF1Man
9:12 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
cerrano I'm in Massachusetts.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
268. cerrano14
8:30 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
hey FI man, which state is your sprinfield in? or is it the simpsons springfield?
Member Since: February 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
267. TheF1Man
8:24 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Hey everyone,

So for Springfield it looks like nothing tonight, but perhaps tomorrow night we could get something.

Now the mid-week storm we're talking about is the thurs/friday one? And there's potential for next weekend as well?
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
266. Pcroton
8:23 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
AH crap. In the snow hole.




#262 the HPC is following guidance that suggests the coastal plain will be above freezing and thus less snow will accumulate. It's a wait and see about that. If we were to use NAM temps then equal accumulations would fall down through Atlantic City. If we were to use GFS temps which maybe they are then it's an I95-I195 slushy accumulation through southern NJ. I'd lean colder. AC Expressway northward gets equal chance at accumulation.



NAM 18Z Graphics show snow falls from the sky everywhere but slusy accumulations fall in Cape Map county. Model run is more organized and a little heavier on the QPF overall by up to a tenth of an inch from the 12Z run with more widespread 0.3" to 0.4" totals. Going with 10:1 numbers that gives us 3 up to 4 inches.









Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
265. jrzyshore
7:58 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Quoting 263. cooldogs13:


Jrzyshore where are u in brick it is looking like snow here I live off herbertsville rd the boarder of Howell??????


I''m in the Lake Riviera section.( but NORTH Lake Riviera...we get WAY more snow than South Lake Riviera...lol)....for those of you unfamiliar with Brick, Lake Riv. is about 1 mile North to South.
Member Since: March 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 210
264. doom22015
7:40 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Been getting light flurries in Burke VA for the past hour. No accumulation, not even a dusting on the lawn, but nonetheless pleasant. Temp 32F, barometer 30.09 falling.
Member Since: February 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
263. cooldogs13
7:26 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Quoting 261. jrzyshore:


The sky in Brick has the "look" of snow....you all know that "look" ? Maybe we squeeze a little dusting out of that !!!!


Jrzyshore where are u in brick it is looking like snow here I live off herbertsville rd the boarder of Howell??????
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 318
262. cooldogs13
7:24 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
P I still don't understand why the hpc graphics are saying lower chances of lower amounts of snow through central coastal nj. All the models and guidance that you have given us are telling me the qpf amounts will be the same as northern nj or am I wrong? Is that having trouble with the temps being over freezing at the coast?
Member Since: November 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 318
261. jrzyshore
7:18 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Quoting 260. goofyrider:
Hey what's that green stuff on the radar north of Cape May


The sky in Brick has the "look" of snow....you all know that "look" ? Maybe we squeeze a little dusting out of that !!!!
Member Since: March 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 210
260. goofyrider
6:54 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Hey what's that green stuff on the radar north of Cape May
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259. Pcroton
5:08 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
New HPC graphics out:



Maximum Reasonable Potential: Not a forecast.






And for the southern areas it looks like the CMC/NAM are on to something with an additional disturbance Tuesday for this is where your snow chances increase a little:




Maximum Reasonable Potential: Not a forecast.



As always with these products if you meet the 40% level or above you usually meet the threshold. Why that is I don't know. Through experience nearly every time I am in 40% or greater probability for a certain amount I GET that amount. So that's why I keep mentioning this.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
258. Pcroton
5:00 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Radar in Non-Precip mode so it is hypersensitive and really picks up the band moving in.



Second composite flushes that out and shows true nature of the band.





Also of interest is the GEFS is back to showing a developing trough between the offshore low and the advancing inland disturbance. Might be interesting for Eastern New England with a final heavy burst of snow before the storm depart?






And just to illustrate how batty the models are for midweek and why I am cautioning the use of models for that storm prior to monday:

1012mb layer:





Here is a lower MB selection - so you can see the widely ranging coastal surface low and interior polar support.

1004mb layer:




Extracting a forecast from that would be nonsense at this time.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
257. Pcroton
4:48 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Just a quick post... QPF from HPC for select times. Good for California but bad for flooding in California. Mudslides await.






Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
256. ncstorm
4:17 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Quoting 254. Pcroton:


If there has been one constant in all the modeling thus far it does unfortunately feature a wide range of p-types.

We're getting later in the season and a storm of this strength could bring in warm air if it takes a certain track.

All possibilities are still open. Just too far away for it. Models are going to flip flop around all over. Each new run didn't figure out something new - so no one should take the latest model run as a new trend or anything. It's just another solution is all.



thanks P..I'll check back in later tonight for updates..

everyone, enjoy your saturday..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15088
255. Pcroton
4:11 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Here is the CMC. All three models still wandering around some between location and strength.

If the present runs are correct it is a lesser scenario of 2-4" just because of QPF. We will have to see as we near. If the system is a bit more organized than shown then it would draw in a bit more moisture. I don't expect any big surprises though. If someone gets 6" that'd be the suprise.

South of Philly don't expect much from it.


12Z CMC 33hr




38HR




====
That's it for now. Will check in later this evening to see how things are progressing.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
254. Pcroton
4:00 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Quoting 252. ncstorm:


Good Morning all

Yes, saw the 00z Euro moved east with higher snow amounts to the GFS thinking for Wednesday's storm..

Interesting..I just hope its all snow and not ice/sleet..


If there has been one constant in all the modeling thus far it does unfortunately feature a wide range of p-types.

We're getting later in the season and a storm of this strength could bring in warm air if it takes a certain track.

All possibilities are still open. Just too far away for it. Models are going to flip flop around all over. Each new run didn't figure out something new - so no one should take the latest model run as a new trend or anything. It's just another solution is all.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
253. Pcroton
3:58 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Here is the 12Z GFS which is a bit more disorganized with multiple centers spread out with a trough north to south.

The GFS temps came way down which I thought the 0Z was too high. GFS does that a lot. These temps are more reasonable.

Being more disorganized it too is a dry system.







Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
252. ncstorm
3:55 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Quoting 239. Pcroton:
Early look at zone forecast for me for the mid week system.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

...

With the cold nights we're going to be having Monday and Tuesdsay night as the arctic front will push south I think there's a chance that there is snow far down into the southern Middle Atlantic at the onset of the mid week system. Just so much cold air involved and we will have another cold air damming scenario unfolding.



For those who follow this blog from North Carolina you should be a little excited about this one's potential.

This also unfortunately plays right into Steve D's concerns that we won't just see a heavy snow go to heavy rain. There will be the potential for an icing event inbetween the pytpes.



Good Morning all

Yes, saw the 00z Euro moved east with higher snow amounts to the GFS thinking for Wednesday's storm..

Interesting..I just hope its all snow and not ice/sleet..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15088
251. Pcroton
3:51 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
I think we should generally let models lay until Monday in regards to the mid week storm. They're going to come up with different solutions run to run. No new run is going to give you a better solution at this time. So I'd discount them overall and just know a strong storm is coming.

In regards to totals tonight it looks like the latest 12Z NAM backed off of the more impressive signature and is going light. This looks like up to an inch maximum.

As to Sunday night it looks like DC is out of it. It's more Baltimore to Philly an inch or so max, Philly to NYC 2-6" south to north. These totals could change between philly and new york depending on how much moisture ends up available. NAM seems a bit dry compared to the last GFS and the NAM has struggled to produce an organized system - while the GFS/CMC have one. So maybe it's to be discarded aside from potential temperature profiles.

Here's the 12Z NAM:
















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250. air360
2:58 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Was just looking at the new NAM for the next week storm...and I have a dumb question.

the GFS was showing a West to East progression...and now looking at the NAM it also is showing a W-E progression.

When looking at the Euro it seems to show more of a E progression until NC at which point it rides up NE.

Normally I would say you could as easily dismiss the GFS as you could believe it...but now that i noticed the NAM is also doing nearly the exact same thing do you think is is more likely that the GFS and NAM are seeing this correctly riding straight W-E and that the Euro is missing it?

The only reason it is interesting to me is the fact that the Euro was so set on its track for this weekends system with consistent runs for days...whereas the GFS was all over the place....

...so who is to be believed lol
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249. noreasterrrrr
2:55 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Do you think it may snow here in yonkers ny tonight, ? And how much for here tomorrow night storm? Thanks.P
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248. DCsnowstorm
2:32 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Thanks for the updates P. How about a DC update for your expected totals this weekend and monday?
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247. GTOSnow
2:14 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Taunton has flipped so many times it is comical. Possible flurries now sunday, maybe snow showers sun night monday morning, coating to 4 inches they say! Then rain on Weds/Thurs followed by temps climbing into the 40's.
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246. absurfer
2:09 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Quoting 243. air360:


I've learned to hold my excitement until I see it falling...in eastern NC especially... as you get close to the coast...often it is just a hair to warm. Those in central NC (Raleigh, Greensboro, etc) should indeed start to become excited about this one because it looks like it could dump...but the farther east of I95...hmmm...I will hold off on the excitment. Going by past experiences it will be a cold rain and a little sleet on the coast and a fluffy powder dump about 50-100miles inland :)

...of course things could change
yes nws got us with chance of mix with lots of hmmmmmm
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245. Pcroton
1:56 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Remember how we were discussing that the SREF shouldnt be cutting off the precip sharply as it did at the Chesepeake last night.

Well, 6Z NAM HIRES... says the hunch may be correct and now gives us a light snow event tonight. This could be an inch or so for NJ. No more than two.




Will see what 12Z shows. 12Z NAM is running. Also curious to see if it tightens up the Sunday night storm.


If tonight gives us 1-2" and Sunday 3-6" through the general region, well, the 4-8" thoughts are still there for an event total.

Certainly not 12-20" that we saw days ago as a potential threat - but hey, it happens. I'd take 4-8" without hesitation....especially with the mid week system looming.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
244. Pcroton
1:48 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Of course. It seems no matter where you are when it comes to snow or rain... I-95 is a pretty good boundary to look at.


Well, the radar shows the displaced band of snow on the back side of the southern wave has reached the area where the SREF said it would but then dry out as it crossed it.

The ball of snow (by Iowa) in the western portion of this frame is not for us it will dissipate and head northward.






When some of that Pacific energy streams east a new area of snowfall will form in that same general area and then expand as it nears the coast later Sunday into Monday. Just shows how fast this pattern is moving. That is why we won't see another clipper surprise like we had in January.

This one's top surprise is 4-8"...

More than likely 2-4" Philly to central NJ and 3-6" northern NJ, NYC, southern New England.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693
243. air360
1:28 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
Quoting 239. Pcroton:
For those who follow this blog from North Carolina you should be a little excited about this one's potential.


I've learned to hold my excitement until I see it falling...in eastern NC especially... as you get close to the coast...often it is just a hair to warm. Those in central NC (Raleigh, Greensboro, etc) should indeed start to become excited about this one because it looks like it could dump...but the farther east of I95...hmmm...I will hold off on the excitment. Going by past experiences it will be a cold rain and a little sleet on the coast and a fluffy powder dump about 50-100miles inland :)

...of course things could change
Member Since: October 13, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
242. Pcroton
1:27 PM GMT on February 08, 2014
A freezing rain threat Monday into Tuesday:



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 48 Comments: 7693

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.