Wednesday SEVERE Ice/Sleet/Snow MidAtl to NE

By: Pcroton , 11:04 AM GMT on February 04, 2014

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Good Morning.



Advisories as of 6AM Tuesday

Looks like we have a dangerous winter weather event on our hands for Wednesday for the region.

Let's start by looking at what the models are doing. We appear to have an inland low that will transfer it's energy to the coastline. As we know the earlier this occurs the colder the solution.






Now let's choose a model run. Monday's snow pack was important and it's best to see what model is handling the new thermal environment the best.

So let's take a look back at yesterday's 12Z Low Temperatures for this morning from the NAM:





And now the GFS:




And let's look at the present surface Analysis:




Blue=32F Line. Isotherms are 2F scale.


I'm sold on the GFS here. It is handling the thermal environment properly. Yes, that same GFS that was a disaster for yesterday's storm and that same GFS that once had today's storm in the western Ohio Valley heading into Canada, which those who follow my blog, knew I was steadfastly against that and the forecasted warm rain scenarios that were born of it.


==================================

Now let's take a look at how the models are behaving. With a colder environment I expect a further East storm track which would lead to an earlier transfer of energy towards the coastline.

Our Canadian model nailed Monday's storm so let's take a look at that first.

CAN 30HR:




CAN 39HR:




Notice how the parent low is far inland and maintaining intensity. This is in error as the low must transfer to the coast. I would discount this model. It als seems to be too warm in regards to our sleet and freezing rain threats.

Let's check the NAM out:





Like the Canadian model the NAM also hangs on to the parent low too long. I don't hate this model run but it's just too late with the energy transfer.


Now let's check the GFS.






The GFS has the evolution of the storm and it's transfer to the coast properly here. I would go GFS with track.

The GFS is too warm here too early however we know the GFS tends to have a warm bias as it has all winter long so I like the track but I think you can knock a good 2-4 degrees off of this map you see here and that spells trouble. While the GFS had the initial environment correct it is kicking out the cold air far too early. With such a good snow pack in place combined with very cold overnight temperatures that cold air will take hours longer to evict than the GFS is showing. This is why you lean low here.


Let's take a look at the upper levels this morning.

850MB LEVEL




925MB LEVEL




Notice how the 850MB level is warmer than the 925MB level and surface. This screams sleet and freezing rain. The 850MB level will feature liquid which will fall through the 925MB level and refreeze and hit us with sleet. In areas where both levels are above freezing the liquid will reach the ground and flash freeze on surfaces.

Prior to this we will have snowfall and areas north of Interstate 80 will have a long duration snowfall event before some sleet creeps in halting accumulations. Don't use these maps to illustrate rain/snow lines. Where you see lower snow totals there's going to be sleet not rain. Just as dangerous if not more so. Too much emphasis
is always put on accumulation totals and not actual threat.







The GFS has this correct. I am unsure, given the cold temperature profiles, why the GFS snowfall output is colder while the NAM is warmer. Quirk in the system? Those snow maps are no stranger to fault.


Now given the upper level environment which we will have to NOWCast early in the event, I would discount colder surface temps as a reason to expect more snow south. If we get more snow south it will be about that 850MB level dragging it's heels in the south....and not about our surface temps staying cold. Surface temps staying cold will prolong our sleet and ice event.

All about the 850mb level if you want to stay SNOW in this one. So watch that evolve and see how it marches northward. Sleet is all about the 925 staying cold.

I dislike the GFS's handling of temperatures during the storm however here is it's 850MB levels at 30hrs and then 36hrs.






Now here is the colder NAM, whose temperatures I like except their exact contours are iffy due to the primary low still holding on too long in it's solution. Since the GFS is too warm this will suffice for a theory on our storm outcome.

850MB at 30hrs:




NAM at 42hrs:




Here is the NAM at 30 and 42 hours. Notice where it sets up the 925MB (sleet) level and doesn't budge it. North of this freezing (white) line you do not go over to rain. You are sleet and north of the 850mb freezing line you're snow.







I would go GFS track/evolution, NAM temps, GFS Snow Map.


====

Lastly, your HPC products.

Freezing Rain > 0.10"




Freezing Rain > 0.50" (damage)




Snowfall > 2"





Snowfall max worst case (I would go with it.)





I will address finer point details and more maps/model runs in the section below. I will answer some late questions from the last blog and also touch on yesterday's failures in the south.

As always thank's for participating. This is an open blog. We don't keep score here. We analyze and discuss what storms may or may not do. All thoughts are welcome.

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396. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:14 PM GMT on February 06, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
395. LansdaleTim
1:04 PM GMT on February 06, 2014
Hey all, finally back to the land of technology. Lost power in Coatesville at 6AM yesterday, came back on sometime overnight. Heavy icing, lots of trees down, power lines down. My parent's house in Downingtown had 3 big pine trees come down, roots and all. Glad to see that everyone seemed to survive the storm. now we get to see what the weekend brings.
Member Since: February 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 57
394. TheRasberryPatch
12:10 PM GMT on February 06, 2014
So glad that the temperature increased to 35F early yesterday evening. I think a lot of the ice melted off the trees and when the winds and cold temperatures moved in it didn't cause a problem. That was a blessing.

Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6254
393. Matlack
2:38 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
P- thanks for staying on top of this, long day at work for me. We lucked out as the ice was just a few miles NW of us.
Member Since: January 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 358
392. Pcroton
2:21 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
Welcome Sandtuinnj

It looks like someone started typing a though and got interrupted and left too many words in there.

"A Chance of Snow"
"Potential for snow"

Either was the idea I think.

As to evening NWS writeups you can see across the board they backed a little off of this mornings "no storm" idea which was a vast change from talking up the chances for a big one.

We have the models to thank for that.


====

LT, it shall bear your namesake for eternity. It will soon rival the Kocin-Ucceline pattern in the weather texts of the future.

====

Yep it looks like that snow band really died off. Lost it's lift and support. There went that idea in a hurry. NWS had new advisories out from Upton for it, too. Someone will get a small pocket of 1" or so snows. Won't be us.


====

Well, this isn't good... Ice weighted trees, and now wind.




We will pick things up in the morning.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
391. originalLT
1:02 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
Also looks like that band of snow pivoting around whats left of that upper level low, is petering out for our area. Think it will only affect the Mid Hudson Valley, Northern CT., and Mass.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7447
390. originalLT
1:00 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
Hey "P" thanks for the "naming" of that upper level Feature, the LT . Yeah, it did impress me. It was one tough son of a gun!---- I remember that storm last year. I got 12-14" Max got 21" and Bridgeport/Hamden/Milford got 35-40". I was as usual in the Stamford "snow hole"! LOL.--Never got the intense banding. Also the talk of data or the lack of it for the models reminds me of the old "computer" saying, "Garbage in, garbage out"!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7447
389. sandtuinnj
12:43 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
First I've enjoyed this blog - I'm way way below all you in knowledge but it is very interesting to read and I'm learning alot.

I'm learning enough to do a face palm when I see this kind of headline from Upton. What exactly is the difference between a 'chance of snow" and 'potential for a chance'. Sounds a little bit defensive to me.

POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND...

ALTHOUGH FORECAST MODELS SHOW A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS
WEEKEND...THEY DO NOT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE COASTAL STORM
THAT WOULD BRING HIGH IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FORECASTING A ...CHANCE... OF SNOW
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
Member Since: February 6, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
388. TheRasberryPatch
12:41 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
Quoting 387. Pcroton:
364, 368, 374

You might find your answer in posts 364, 368, 374.

I don't know if it makes it that far south and west, I even question how much of an impact it has in central NJ here. Much higher chances NYC area northward. Looks like SW edge like I thought might peter out.







Looking at the radar loop, the precipitation seems to be shrinking and drying up.

I was just wondering with the temperatures in the mid 30's and then a cold front with cold air hitting this warm moist air, would it squeeze out any precip. But like I said it appears the moisture is shrinking and drying
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6254
387. Pcroton
12:26 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
364, 368, 374
Quoting 385. TheRasberryPatch:
Pcroton - I wonder when the cold air comes into the area this evening will it bring a brief snow shower/squall?
Right now my temperature has increased to 35F after hanging around 33F most of the day

I am forecast for a low of 15F tonight


You might find your answer in posts 364, 368, 374.

I don't know if it makes it that far south and west, I even question how much of an impact it has in central NJ here. Much higher chances NYC area northward. Looks like SW edge like I thought might peter out.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
386. Pcroton
12:23 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
For a good closing post tonight, since the models and our reactions to them seemed to be a theme this afternoon, here's what they've done today in regards to the weekend disturbance. My feelings on them still stand.

Posting for interest. Also will be interesting, if I remember, to do this tomorrow and see what they do.








=================



=================




=========================================
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
385. TheRasberryPatch
12:18 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
Pcroton - I wonder when the cold air comes into the area this evening will it bring a brief snow shower/squall?
Right now my temperature has increased to 35F after hanging around 33F most of the day

I am forecast for a low of 15F tonight
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6254
384. Pcroton
12:06 AM GMT on February 06, 2014
Terrible to hear wxgeek. We were so lucky to find ourselves outside the major ice storm.


Thanks for the post GTO - already seeing the "ok wait a minute" responses to this morning's thoughts ripple through all NWS WFOs. It is interesting to see a quick reversion in thinking.


My thinking continues. Maybe tomorrow's modeling starts to give a few hints, such as tonight 18GFS posed a more impactful scenario. I don't like off model guidance but I will use it to illustrate an idea...and it fit the bill.

I still think we're about 36 hours away from a real good answer.

One of the big things that should set some modeling straight is the flood gates opening in the west.



When those lows are inland out west I think the sampling of them improves dramatically.

Then the models will improve greatly. Also by then the polar environment will have played ahead and we might be within a window to see good sampling of what's going on up there as well and find out if, and how strong, of a polar disturbance we have to play with here.

Until the players are on the field I don't think we should call the game.

Yeah, poor cliche, but it fits.

The way I see that is this. We need the disturbances in a set location to put forward a good forecast for them. At this point we still have to guess where those disturbances will be first, and then we're trying to forecast off of those guessed positions.

Wouldn't it be prudent to eliminate the guess work, and then we're just down to forecasting something that exists in front of us?

I feel the same way about the models. Guessing on the first 48 hours (because they have no data sampling), then guessing on the next 48 hours based off of a guess.

Terrible. Once we fast forward a little we'll have the disturbances well sampled, and it's no longer guessing, it's forecasting.


Well, I don't want to get too redundant about the models. We just have to let things play out a little before we can gain some confidence in them is all.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
383. wxgeek723
11:30 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Montgomery County has been declared a disaster area
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3482
382. noreasterrrrr
11:15 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Great explanation P. Makes sense what you say. The bottom line is they dont know. They know they have millions of people watching their live forecasts so the want to act sure of themselves and be like Gods as is they know everything. In the grand scheme of things it is false advertising. Sure you can take a lucky guess and maybe be right but that credit surely cant be owed to the meteorologist. They better off humbling up, keep it simple and say ladies and gentlemen lets just take it day by day and as we get closer we will know more.
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
381. GTOSnow
11:15 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Just an update here in Mass, local towns not far from me have been reporting 12.5" or so and that was as of around 3pm. it never changed over here, stayed all snow and is still snowing now, although not showing on radar. Waiting for that last band in NY to pivot south east now! Also, looks like Taunton NWS is echoing P's thoughts - See below

Later in the weekend...there is still a lot of uncertainty. The operational runs of the GFS /12z/ and European model (ecmwf) /00z/ are in decent agreement with each other but are fairly different from yesterdays forecast as well as their respective ensembles. Both the gefs and the European model (ecmwf) ensembles have a significant amount of spread both in the 500mb pattern as well as the development and track of the surface reflection. Given this seasons tendency for the models to go gung Ho 5-7 days out and then weaken storms considerably if not make them disappear completely in days 3-5 and then bring the storms back as the responsible shortwaves move into more data rich regions upstream...am not ready to completely dismiss the potential for a storm late in the weekend.
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 223
380. Gaara
11:14 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
6.5" plus a weird top inch of snow and ice. We have a 150 foot driveway with a double turnaround which I've had to clear solo with a little gravely tractor and a shovel. Not fun after all of the transporting lumber upstairs from fuel spill Sunday and Monday.

We got 38" from last year's blizzard in milford, CT. It was nice because it was the weekend and there was just a general sense of "well, we can just fuck around for friday and Saturday because there's nowhere to put the snow until they plow." tomorrow will be my first actual day of work this week. I'm really looking forward to it.
Member Since: December 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 369
379. Pcroton
11:07 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 377. noreasterrrrr:
Nothing for nothing but mrG. On channel 11 just showed the gfs peek for sunday and it showed the gulf low go out to sea and he said thats why we miss the big storm. I dont get it. Why wouldn't he bother to show the Euro model that has that coming up the coast.


I think the media works off of very early data. Evening news, unless a blockbuster is imminent, I liken to a morning newspapers printed forecast. It's already old data.

We can see with the NWS offices commentary at their 3PM updates that they backtracked a little and re-opened the door for a storm....whereas they too this morning were on the no-storm out to sea idea.

There's going to be varying ideas until we see better modeling tomorrow - but anyone who says "out to sea" while showing one operational GFS model run from earlier today.... is being lazy. It reminds me of Henry M telling us to trust the 12Z GFS from Wednesday 1/29 for the next 10 days of weather.

Had we done that it's 45 and sunny on Monday and it was 50 and raining today.

Why do folks keep doing the same thing over and over with model watching I have no idea... shame on "professionals" who do it. It's one thing for us hobbyists to say "Hey did you see the latest run?". That's cool. It's what we do and it's fun.

But the pros doing it? Head scratcher.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
378. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:02 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 375. Pcroton:


I remember that. NAM model put out "insane" snow totals... and was dismissed. Twice last year in fact.

Only for us to see it verify both times. Incredible.

I know one of the storms dumped 40" totals in a narrow band in CT and 35" down into central LI.

I think we got 10" from it when the late polar disturbance phased rapidly eastward in the evening.

Hamden, CT got 40"... big jackpot
Milford, CT 35"

Yeah, I remember NAM doing 40" even 50" which is insane.
Although NAM was not so bad, even though it began talking about these crazy snowfalls long before it was not all that off.

5-8" snowfall rates? in Long Island?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
377. noreasterrrrr
11:02 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Nothing for nothing but mrG. On channel 11 just showed the gfs peek for sunday and it showed the gulf low go out to sea and he said thats why we miss the big storm. I dont get it. Why wouldn't he bother to show the Euro model that has that coming up the coast.
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
376. Hurricane614
11:01 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 364. Pcroton:
We're not done...




Precip shield is pivoting back south and east from western NY. It may clip central NJ northward this evening with up to an inch of snow and/or some light freezing rain.



Really, it's moving SE?
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 498
375. Pcroton
11:00 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 373. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
It's going to be the anniversary of the major blizzard of 2013 this weekend... could we have something out there to make us remember it?

I got 21" out of that one... crazy storm it was


I remember that. NAM model put out "insane" snow totals... and was dismissed. Twice last year in fact.

Only for us to see it verify both times. Incredible.

I know one of the storms dumped 40" totals in a narrow band in CT and 35" down into central LI.

I think we got 10" from it when the late polar disturbance phased rapidly eastward in the evening.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
374. Pcroton
10:58 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
With the 850, 925, and surface levels all dropping below freezing and moving south and east this evening, whatever that remaining precip shield brings when it pivots through I would expect snow from it.

The chances for any snow begin around central NJ. Chances increase greatly starting around NYC/NE NJ/LI and points northward. By the time it gets here there is question if the portion sweeping for central NJ would have much kick to it. Won't know until it gets here.









While up to an inch might not sound important - remember it's falling on wet roads and will be a dangerous addition for travel as both the water and the added snow slush would freeze.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
373. trHUrrIXC5MMX
10:56 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
It's going to be the anniversary of the major blizzard of 2013 this weekend... could we have something out there to make us remember it?

I got 21" out of that one... crazy storm it was
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
372. Pcroton
10:53 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
In fact, see where the 18Z GFS has that storm on Friday?

The last Friday 12Z GFS had Monday's NY Snow Storm in that same place...


Soooo...this is what we deal with. Let's not make repeated mistakes trusting the models when we JUST went through this.

Does that mean I think Friday is a storm now? Of course not...I am just saying do not take these things so literaly. We've seen what a bad idea that is with just the past two storms being awfully modeled any more than 48 hours in advance.

I'd stick to that time frame. Seems to be the only stable thing going this winter.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
371. Pcroton
10:51 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 370. noreasterrrrr:
Maybe an inch out of that?


I think that's a good number to choose.


Since MAweatherboy brought it up I want to show the 18Z GFS to show the volitility (steve d word) in the modeling. Remember, models try to resolve energy, they aren't really problem solvers, they're robots, cold and calculated.

Notice how we have a far southern bit (that SW US disturbance I posted earlier that the 12Z GFS is mishandling). This is also the disturbance Blacksburg VA thinks comes north, Upton thinks comes south - but mentioned they have come more north over time, etc. So this bears a little watching for sure.





Now look how random northern stream energy enters the picture with no real rhyme or reason.




Now look at Monday with a storm.




....what does this mean? Does this mean we get a storm Friday and a storm Monday? Impossible to get that from this.

What I see from this run is there's a lot of energy coming and the models just don't yet have the proper data in order to properly resolve the situation.

What this volitility run to run and model to model means there is no revelation about "no storm" this weekend. It means the models are struggling mightily. Given how wild they have become? This to mean screams lack of data or data error (same thing really)

So stay TUNED.

Tomorrow afternoon should give us some answers...because some of these players will be better sampled by then. Better data for models yields better data. Friday some results.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
370. noreasterrrrr
10:45 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Maybe an inch out of that?
Member Since: February 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
369. Pcroton
10:41 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
You can even see the process. Notice the SW kink in the 850mb winds out from the SW of the center in NY there - then picture the lobe on radar pivoting SE towards us all. That's what we got there an 850mb extension/trough that's being swung counter clockwise around the feature - as the feature pulls east.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
368. Pcroton
10:40 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 366. TheF1Man:
P the radar might not show it but we've had freezing rain to start the afternoon which turned into moderate snow for portions of the afternoon. It was easy to watch it accumulate on cars that had already been cleaned.

Anyways, that shield looks pretty decent. See if it holds.


I'm actually surprised how far north the freezing rain threat got. That inland low held on for dear life.

After dismissing the NAM/CMC solutions showing that yesterday... it turns out they had it right.

We did see earlier coastal genesis as the GFS showed - but in the end the energy did not transfer until very late and that kept that warmer layer shooting farther north.

Now the whole system has reached it's northern most point at 850mb and it is pivoting and circling back down and around and out to the south and east - pulling that western lobe of radar echoes in NY back in our direction.

Does the lift continue through the evening or does it break up? Well, that 850mb feature is so intense you'd probably do good leaning towards holding together.




We're just gunna call this scneario the "LT" since he was the one most fascinated with the 850mb portion of the storm when it was in the central US yesterday afternoon.

Huge influence on the whole storm. Definitely wasn't discussed enough.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
367. Pcroton
10:36 PM GMT on February 05, 2014





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366. TheF1Man
10:32 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
P the radar might not show it but we've had freezing rain to start the afternoon which turned into moderate snow for portions of the afternoon. It was easy to watch it accumulate on cars that had already been cleaned.

Anyways, that shield looks pretty decent. See if it holds.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
365. Pcroton
10:32 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 363. MAweatherboy1:
Hey P, it looks like the 18z GFS lends some support to your idea of a larger weekend/early next week storm not being out of the question yet. No monster that run by any means, but much of New England gets hit with several inches, up to a foot in parts of Maine. More than shown earlier.

Btw, about 8.5" here today, though I expect light snow for the past couple hours has pushed that towards 9" now.


How ya been. Good storm for New England today.

Yeah see the thing there is the models just crunch data. Depending on the data they get causes variations in solutions.

Sometimes a light difference in some important data, such as the sampling of the strength of a polar disturbance, can lead to a widely varying result on the other end.

In this if you take a simple calculator and multiple 2x2x2 and so on.. After a few clicks you get to 64.

Now multiple 2x2.1x2.1x2.1 and so on 5 times. You end up with 81

So what just seemed like a TINY difference in 0.1... ends up with a LARGE difference on the other end.

Consider that 0.1 the slight data differences in sampling of a disturbance, consider it as an error... and then see what happens?

These models make billions of calculations per run. If you got one number just a tad incorrect in sampling? One disturbance a few tenths of a MB off? The whole run goes to crap after about 36 hours.

This is the big problem here.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
364. Pcroton
10:14 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
We're not done...




Precip shield is pivoting back south and east from western NY. It may clip central NJ northward this evening with up to an inch of snow and/or some light freezing rain.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
363. MAweatherboy1
10:13 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Hey P, it looks like the 18z GFS lends some support to your idea of a larger weekend/early next week storm not being out of the question yet. No monster that run by any means, but much of New England gets hit with several inches, up to a foot in parts of Maine. More than shown earlier.

Btw, about 8.5" here today, though I expect light snow for the past couple hours has pushed that towards 9" now.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7637
362. Pcroton
10:10 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Upton ICE:

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
FORT LEE 0.30

...ESSEX COUNTY...
MAPLEWOOD 0.10

...HUDSON COUNTY...
NORTH BERGEN 0.25

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
HAWTHORNE 0.34

NEW YORK

...NASSAU COUNTY...
UNIONDALE 0.20

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
CENTRAL PARK 0.25

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
CENTEREACH 0.25


=======

SNOWS:


CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
SHELTON 9.5

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
CLINTON 6.3

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
SOUTHBURY 9.5

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
VOLUNTOWN 5.0

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
TETERBORO 6.5

...ESSEX COUNTY...
CEDAR GROVE 5.1

...HUDSON COUNTY...
HARRISON 4.5

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
WEST MILFORD 6.5


NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
DODGEWOOD 6.5

...KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY...
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 2.0

...NASSAU COUNTY...
BAYVILLE 5.3

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
CENTRAL PARK 4.0

...ORANGE COUNTY...
NEWBURGH 12.5

...PUTNAM COUNTY...
KENT CLIFFS 9.5

...QUEENS COUNTY...
NYC/LA GUARDIA 3.3

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
HUGUENOT 3.6

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
TALLMAN 7.0

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
ORIENT 4.5

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
ARMONK 9.1
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
361. Pcroton
10:07 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Mount Holly Snows:


NEW JERSEY

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
TEWKSBURY TWP 3.5

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
CARTERET 2.5

...MORRIS COUNTY...
BUTLER 5.2

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
BRIDGEWATER TWP 2.7

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
MONTAGUE 11.4

...WARREN COUNTY...
BLAIRSTOWN 6.0


PENNSYLVANIA

...CARBON COUNTY...
LAKE HARMONY 10.0

...LEHIGH COUNTY...
SCHNECKSVILLE 3.1

...MONROE COUNTY...
TOBYHANNA 9.0

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
FORKS TWP 7.0
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
360. Pcroton
10:05 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Some local NWS Mt Holly reports...

ICE:

MARYLAND

...CECIL COUNTY...
RISING SUN 0.25

NEW JERSEY

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
FLORENCE 0.40

...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
WASHINGTON TWP 0.25


...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
TEWKSBURY TWP 0.50

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
METUCHEN 0.50

...MORRIS COUNTY...
ROCKAWAY 0.40

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
BRIDGEWATER TWP 0.30


PENNSYLVANIA

...BERKS COUNTY...
MERTZTOWN 0.50

...BUCKS COUNTY...
FURLONG 0.25

...CHESTER COUNTY...
WEST CHESTER 0.50

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
WAYNE 0.50

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
ROYERSFORD 0.40

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
BUSHKILL TWP 0.31

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
NORTHEAST PHILADELPH 0.33
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
359. Pcroton
10:00 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Remember folks, can't say it enough. Friday's GFS had Monday's snow storm passing out to sea off the Georgia coastline.

Wed/Thur GFS had today's storm pushing into Canada and dragging a widespread 50s rainstorm from Chicago to Maine.


So why oh why would we trust today's GFS that isn't doing much with the weekend?

It's one thing to say let's be cautions about that blockbuster idea ... something else to say "latest GFS shows ____. No storm."

Let's just say I'm not inclined to get out my beach chair just yet.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
358. Pcroton
9:58 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
That's a great way to put it Rod. It's true we have all that energy coming and it will lead to numerous chances. Along the way we'll get some hopes dashed, some ideas go up in smoke, and some surprises along the way.


Just to continue the theme to focus on models and why I'd be hesitent to trust them for Sunday yet...is what I touched on with the 12Z GFS mishandling the basic init data for the SW disturbance. Here's that same run now 9 hours later...




That's significant enough to know that what the model wants to do with that disturbance will likely continue to not just be incorrect but the errors will be compounded as we move forward in time.

I just don't like these things and right this evening we can see forecasters back tracking a little on this mornings "storm off for the weekend" theories.

We all dislike waiting but it is what we got to do. Does anyone really trust anything beyond a 48hr window? For me...Thoughts, sure. Confidence, no.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
357. rod2635
9:38 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 351. Pcroton:
Plenty of chances coming... Precip and Temps, 6-10Day Anomaly.






A lot of energy out there....



You've put on a great modeling/storm clinic. These graphics put it well. Moisture and temperature in general. Raw ingredients favorable. Specifics to be determined. A floating log in the Mississippi 100 miles upstream will eventually pass your dock. Exactly when and just how many feet away is almost impossible to predict until it gets a lot closer.
Member Since: January 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
356. Pcroton
9:35 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Blacksburg VA puts the Late Friday disturbance northward towards us... while Upton puts it south towards them. Pretty funny.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...FAR NORTHWEST OF THIS WEEKEND`S
COASTAL DEVELOPMENT...MAY SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.



===

Upton to Blacksburg "You can have it."
Blackburg to Upton "Nope, you can have it."



If we can't agree on a minor disturbance nobody knew about until 3 hours ago...then...do we really know what's coming for the weekend and beyond?



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
355. Pcroton
9:31 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Steve's video is interesting. Sounds like he's leaning towards moderate early sunday, and significant wednesday now.

A lot of energy is coming so what does the atmosphere do with it out east?

I still think that's a question best posed later tomorrow at the earliest but it does sound like a weekend blockbuster is less likely until you start to read a few late afternoon comments that sound like a bit of waffling backwards on calling off the dogs entirely.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
354. Pcroton
9:20 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Has anyone seen what just happened?

From the chance of a big weekend storm... to "Not going to happen"... to sudden uncertainty again and the addition of another Wednesday threat?

All within 24 hours mind you.


I think the next 24 hours will give no answer to the Sat-Wed multi-threat time frame. Friday morning would be a wise moment to take this all in.


It just amazes me that we have seen a large confidence in a storm go to large confidence into a bust right into waffling into "well we dont really know, uncertainty due to models"... in such a short period of time.

They could have saved us the reading.

"WE DONT KNOW. PLEASE CHECK BACK TOMORROW."

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
353. Pcroton
9:17 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
340 pm est wed feb 5 2014

another winter weather system
is possible saturday night into sunday as an area of low pressure
develops off the southeast coast and moves to our east.

(snip)

the last couple of runs have sped up the system over the weekend.
High pressure across the area friday night will retreat northward as
the next weather system approaches. All available model guidance
indicates two available sources of moisture and potential
precipitation. However, there is disagreement with their
placements, strengths, and amounts. First is a low pressure system
developing off the southeast coast that will move to our east
saturday night into sunday morning. The ecmwf and canadian are the
strongest with the coastal low and furthest north, while the gfs
and nam are weaker and slightly further south and east. With the
uncertainty at this point in time, we will keep a chance of
precipitation for the potential with this system. The second piece
of energy and moisture is forecast to swing across the area
saturday night into sunday. Again, the available guidance all
indicate the potential for this period of precipitation, so we
will keep the highest probabilities during this time period. The
question with this period will be what p-type will occur if
precipitation occurs. The gfs is now showing mostly snow at the
beginning with the potential for a period of freezing rain to rain
for some of the area, while the ecmwf keeps the precipitation
mostly snow or rain/snow mix. For now, we will keep the forecast
as snow or rain/snow mix until we get a more firm agreement of
freezing rain/sleet potential.

After this system, another brief respite is expected monday into
tuesday as high pressure tries to nose its way in again from the
west. Brief troughing aloft will develop across the area, which
should keep the temperatures below normal into early next week. A
couple of short waves are forecast to move to our north embedded
withing the trough aloft, but are only expected to bring an increase
in cloud cover to the area.

Then there is the potential for another storm around mid-week next
week, but there are significant differences in the long range
models. The ecmwf brings precipitation in as early as tuesday
night/wednesday, while the gfs is far more suppressed and keeps
everything south of us through wednesday night. For now we will
keep slight chance/low chance of precipitation until we get more
confidence in the models.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
352. Pcroton
9:14 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Upton... see why you don't just jump on the bust solution this far in advance? Already waffling backwards...and it's just 3 hours later lol:

-----------------

In general...Expect dry conditions early saturday...Then there is a
chance...Low chance...That the area will get brushed with some light
snow as an area of low pressure develops well to the south and
passes south of the 40/70 benchmark.

Another shortwave moves quickly eastward saturday night and
sunday...And low pressure should develop well to the south...Again
passing southeast of the area later this weekend. Due to the
relatively flat flow...Do not foresee major deepening of the low off
the coast. However...Confidence in a weaker and further south
solution remains low due to the fact that a northwestward and
stronger shift in the guidance has occurred with recent storms. In
addition there are some ensemble members that do indeed maintain a
deeper low pressure system closer to the coast.


As such...Will maintain consistency in the forecast. Do expect to
get a clearer picture in subsequent model runs...Within 72 to 84
hours out.


=================

Here is that first little system they speak of on the CMC, this is prior to and unrelated to the bigger storm Sat-Sun ideas...

12Z CMC, 40 hours, 11pm Friday.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
351. Pcroton
9:08 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Plenty of chances coming... Precip and Temps, 6-10Day Anomaly.






A lot of energy out there....

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
350. Pcroton
9:05 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
If you scan the models but don't take them literally...what I take from them is anywhere from three to five disturbances pose a snowfall threat disturbance to the region from now through Feb 16.

3 if we have more consolidated solutions (Sunday, Wednesday, Saturday)... 5 if we have a few back to backs (Sat-Sun, Sun-Mon, Wed, Fri-Sat, Sat-Sun).

First thing is first. Let's narrow our window into the next one this weekend.

That begins no earlier than this time tomorrow. Good chance given how the models are perfomring right now it won't quite cut it though - so Friday morning.

Keep in mind, when you have models that flip a scenario wildly, and none of the models agree with how they flipped it, you have a data problem. You need some continuity and right now we have none - except that the Euro always showed a storm and still does and didn't change other than to have it moderate strength instead of severe. Not really a shift worthy of concern.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
349. Pcroton
8:55 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
From everyone's reports it sounds like CT through MA made out very nicely with a good snow storm 6-12"

Unfortunately PA and west central/northern NJ got hit with big ice.



Quoting 333. cooldogs13:
Hey p pr any1 willing to answer what are you thinking on p type for southern Monmouth \ northern ocean counties for this weekends 1 or 2 storms I don't want to get stuck with just a cold rain like we got this morning. I want snow only no sleet no frz rain??


Too early to determine rain/snow lines with the event as we don't quite know what the energy will be converted to. 2 moderate storms? 1 bigger storm?

Starting in about 24 hours but moreso by 36 hours we will be able to discuss such. As for another icing event I don't believe the environment would support any widespread freezing rain outside of the typical narrow ice/sleet boundary between snow and rain.


Quoting 341. goofyrider:
info:

http://www.spia-index.com/neIce.php



Very nice. Will use in the future, Thanks!


Quoting 334. air360:
Hey P - off topic question - Im just curious - what is your day job?

Saw you post "I already pushed my office day to Friday"

Just curious what job allows you to push around office days lol.

Thanks for the updates...btw...latest GFS looks like it could be interesting for NC mid to late next week...maybe. <-- (part of my denial and bargaining phases of grieving that winter is almost over) lol


I freelance. My work isn't very time sensitive. I also work from home frequently as I can either use remote desktop or I just get sent projects, put it together, and send it back.

Got to touch base every so often in person....but have the ability to move those days around when poor weather threatens the commute. Doing what I do there's no reason to waste time sitting on a broken down train or a train platform waiting endlessly.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
348. Str0ngst0rms247
8:53 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
"Until then. Anyone disappointed in this winter?"

(Hand goes up)

Hagerstown maryland.. We have been forecasted for so much but have gotten 2 prolli 5 times at least. And so 4 inches prolli once... Been a real bummer.. All around here I've seen totals 7-8 for some storms. Oh well looking ahead........
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
347. Pcroton
8:35 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
Quoting 345. rod2635:
just got power back here in the chestnut hill section of philly after it went out around 8am. hope it lasts. trees were and still are coated with snow from the prior storm and still have ice not yet melted. number of them down. winds calm. if winds pick up we could be back in trouble again.


Expect winds to push near 20mph later today as the storm moves out and cold air rushes in.

Expect everything to freeze solid. So if there's something you want to clean up go for it - just look overhead and make sure you're not putting yourself under any widow makers.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253
346. Pcroton
8:34 PM GMT on February 05, 2014
I read Henry's little piece, LT. He's showing a Miller B scenario there. These are tough for models to sniff out until we get close. Until we do they tend to create a weak northern-only storm. Then they get close and they "see" the chance to develop a secondary coastal system and off they go.

He is more than correct in not letting the models dictate what to expect in the weather from this distance out, referencing what I've referenced, and anyone who really stares at these things are thinking... that we seen "no storm" two days after a big storm was modeled, only to then see a big storm again as we get within 48 hours or less of the event.

It makes me curious why he was so emphatic about trusting the GFS last Thursday though - maybe he had a bad day? Maybe he's re-learned an age old lesson not to get caught up in a long term run.

=========================

I also read Steve's piece (will check the video later) and I tell ya, Steve is very well educated, but no one is without fault. What he says make sense and if one were to go against one of Steve's thinkings...they might want to really take a hard look at what he's suggesting before they find fault with it. That said - I did not read a confident conclusion from him. What he did was lay out two possibilities - and give us something we could watch over the next couple of days.

We also have to keep in mind that if we have it all figured out, such as if an ULL is in one specific place we never get a storm, we could have written iron clad rules on weather forecasting, and we'd never fault.

Since we know things are fluid we know this isn't always the case. There's more to the big picture than "I remember an instance where there was a low there and a high here and we got _____". That's why I'm not the biggest fan of analogs.


==============


What I do like here is that everyone is really putting effort into their thoughts for the next few storms. This shows there is a high potential of several events in a row to produce snowfall through the region. Maybe we get lucky and we get a big one out of it along the way.

I also like how everyone, Steve, Joe, Henry, Gary, NWS, WPC, HPC... have all laid out their ideas and given multiple plausible scenarios and what to look for if any one of them were to come together.

Lastly no one person/entity mentioned above is locked into any scenario with confidence. You can see where they may be leaning - and therefore leading you with their thoughts - but not one person has a steadfast opinion - nor large confidence in any one outcome.



Myself included in that. I see the threat potential. I'll stick to my opinion that in order to throw confidence behind that idea...I want to see Thursday unfold, and perhaps even early Friday.


We know our modeling has been very poor. We know our window of trust is UNDER 48 hours.

That hasn't suddenly changed. We are not at that time to trust guidance. We aren't even at that time to trust what we think we see on satellite imagery.


Patience seems to be a word I use a lot on my blog comments and I think it holds. Think of more than a few times we were at this same point with the models producing a poor solution that became in conflict with original storm thoughts --- only to see the models come back around. More often than not this winter.

Hang tight. Over the next 24-36 hours we will get a better answer. Maybe we get the big one, maybe we get two moderate ones in a row, irrelevant really to me.

When we see what direction this is heading we will shed all original ideas if they are in conflict with the new trustworthy solutions and focus on them and what they mean.


Until then. Anyone disappointed in this winter?

NYC over 40"
Philly over 40"
52" here in Tinton Falls NJ with those couple of nice bullseyes this year pushing us above the big cities.

1.5, 3.0, 5.5, 14, 16, 2, 2, 8.

Hard to complain if the weekend doesn't bring a big one....

Lastly, notice how everyone is now mentioning... next Wedesday as well?

Three storms in a row? (or two if the weekend consolidates in theory)....and if any one of these models blows one of these storms up for a couple runs in a row, and the idea seems plausible, ya know we're going to be posting it and discussing the possibilities.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 44 Comments: 7253

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.