Feb 5-15th, multiple hits?

By: Pcroton , 4:06 PM GMT on January 29, 2014

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It would appear there are signs that our coastal pipeline may be awakening. With an increase in sub-tropical jet stream energy and an endless supply of arctic disturbances and outbreaks the models are jumping on the idea of a major multi-storm winter event.


First, for the weekend, not much to talk about here. On again and off again rain/snow shower chances.




=====================================

Perhaps something a little more organized comes through later on Monday:




=====================================

If you recall February 6-10, 2010 you may be seeing a repeat if the models were to have their way.





42" in 3 days time here in central NJ.


====

European Model snowfall output through February 9th (I believe) From Joe Bastardi, WX Bell:



That is a 10:1 ratio mind you.

===========================================


1/29 0Z GFS showing 3 storms in the time frame: From Levi Cowan, Tropical Tidbits.







============================================

1/29 12Z GFS For Feb 9th:



============================================

Environment Canada Feb 6-13th Temp Anomalies (Blue - below, Purples - Average, Reds - above)






CPC 8-14Day Precip:



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121. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:30 PM GMT on January 31, 2014
Pcroton has created a new entry.
120. Hurricane614
11:33 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 503
119. originalLT
5:32 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
From what I'm hearing, starting to doubt Wed. snow possibility--looks mix to rain, in my area, SW CT. Also, Mondays threat seems to be pushed too far South for me .
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7634
118. goofyrider
3:19 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
if you missed it

Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2789
117. Thunderfan
2:06 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
Quoting aquak9:

Squiggly wavey neon cool-colored ocean current maps???

This is better than psychedelic pspaghetti!!!


You have a great way with words. :)
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 801
116. aquak9
1:08 AM GMT on January 31, 2014

Squiggly wavey neon cool-colored ocean current maps???

This is better than psychedelic pspaghetti!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
115. originalLT
1:04 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
Hi Climate175, Pcrotan and others say to stay away from the 06Z and 18Z gfs models, they don't sample well enough.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7634
114. Climate175
12:20 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
What did the 18z show for the possible snowstorm the 8th and 9th?
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4232
113. HeavySnow
12:16 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
Quoting 92. wxgeek723:
Gary is a good man.

Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 34m
My 'thanks' to the completely irresponsible people who were just trying to be 'helpful' by posting a graphic of huge snowstorm affecting the region 10 days out. So far, I've had to calm down two county EMs and one state EM who are being hit with questions about the 'big snowstorm' heading our way. Inducing public panic is NOT a public service. Knock it off.




Yesterday, The Capital Weathe Gang from the Washington Post put up something similar on facebook. The admonished anyone who was stoking the fires by putting up the map on social media. They had the map with a big red X through it and then commenced with the tongue lashing. Pretty funny. I hope it comes true.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
112. Pcroton
10:46 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
I like Gary S. He's a good guy. His twitter feed is great to read.

My guess is what's happened here is he has taken the Atlanta fiasco personally (government blaming NWS)...and he's touchy at the moment. So then he sees this map floating around creating some sort of panic that ends up in his lap and it's another threat to the weather forecasting community. I guess he's looking to stamp out any chance another weather forecasting backlash/nightmare is all.


Imagine now if somehow the map prevails. The fireworks would commence!

As to the map itself, we here know it's just a model run depicting what it thinks is a prime environment for the available disturbances to produce high results. We here know it's not a forecast.

Yet a lot of the unassuming public or hobbyists just starting out could take it at face value.

Sounds like someone used the map to issue a forecast (hobbyist or otherwise) and it set him off.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
111. goofyrider
10:21 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
I suspect Gary S.was reacting to the " the map" Guess this falls in line with a comment noting that the model run is based on a 10:1 ratio. One must make a judgement re the temperate levels the precip. meets as it develops.

Some folks copy the work without understanding the initial conditions and assumptions. This doesn't mean the map is wrong but might have been out of context.

Gary seems a bit defensive, but like Insp. Clouseau could have answered it is not my dog.

Ah it seems the OEM'S are a tad sensitive after the "Ice Follies" or it could be spending 20 hr days on a football game.
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2789
110. Pcroton
10:16 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Pacific Wind energy. 500mb and Surface:





Oh my... they added OCEAN CURRENTS to the wind map site.

LINK







Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
109. Pcroton
10:11 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
The Pacific is alive with a whole lot of energy. It will be sending plenty of it our way.





Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
108. Pcroton
10:01 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Taking a look further ahead into February with the CFS2. As you know a few CFS snowfall ensemble maps were posted on post #43.

====

Precipitation Anomalies over the next 4 weeks:












Temperature Anomalies over the next 25 days:












=======================


This morning's thoughts on Wednesday's potential storm begin on post #76.

Latest guidance runs for Monday/Wednesday in post #98 (euro/gfs) and post #106 (cmc-monday)

=======================


Looks like we may see a resolution for Monday either tomorrow or Saturday. When it looks clearer a new blog entry will be created to focus on the threat.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
107. Pcroton
9:26 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Here's the SPC analysis at 3PM:








Look at how the ice/snow in SC kept the surface temps below freezing.

I could see freezing rain or sleet for the coasts absolutely.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
106. Pcroton
9:18 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Hi NC Storm. You know I saw those light echoes along your coast and saw some pink on the intellicast radar composite. Wow.




===

Well, as posted the Euro and GFS solutions are further north for Monday and the CMC has the system affecting the middle atlantic.

Monday:



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
105. ncstorm
9:02 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
experiencing freezing rain again in Wilmington, NC..expecting light snow flurries later..hopefully I can see some snow before night falls..

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EST THU JAN 30 2014

..PATCHY AND VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15744
104. Pcroton
8:58 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
In post 95 I lamented that the NWS keeps switching my forecast wildly around with each new model run... and well, just an hour or so later... switched again. Why do this?


TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS
AROUND 40.

TUESDAY NIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY
RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
103. Pcroton
8:37 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 102. zotty:


I think he is talking about the Euro accumulations through Feb 9th map...


Sure it likely is the culprit, but it sounds like someone was parading it around and calling for it to come true - as if it were a final solution to be forecasted from.

Can't get upset at a map and people discussing it. Had to be more to it than that.


Well, we got plenty of waiting to do.

Monday could still be a surprise especially further south such as DC to Baltimore but it could make it up to DE/NJ.

Wednesday we know about - it's going to be about rain/snow lines and we just cant even discuss that until the end of the weekend at the earliest. At this time it looks like the best chances are I95 and north and west for the big hits. If we at the coasts are on the east side of the low we're going to get warm marine air and it's going to change over. At some point further inland it won't change and that's where you get clobbered on Wednesday. How close to the coasts is that line? Who knows. I95 is a common reference, we saw it in December, and we might see it with this midweek storm.

Then we have the chance at an immediate followup storm 3-4 days later. If it's there I think it would track further East than the midweek storm and give all of us a good chance at a significant snowfall.

By the time we get through all three storms (or perhaps 4 as Joe B points to)- someone in the region might not be laughing at that Euro total snowfall output map.

40" sounds like a lot but if you spread it between a moderate event and two significant events it's attainable.

There's probably going to be a small region that gets crushed by each storm that comes through here.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
102. zotty
8:17 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 94. Pcroton:
Ouch! Someone got on his nerves. Wish I knew the link he's talking about. Would like to see what it was.





I think he is talking about the Euro accumulations through Feb 9th map...
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 747
101. zotty
8:04 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
P et al, with the way that storm is shaping up I am getting Superstorm flashbacks. That one was well modeled almost a week out and followed the script perfectly. I hope bastardi and company are correct...
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 747
100. zotty
7:59 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 60. HeavySnow:
I've been sick for over a month now with some stomach bug and now the flu has joined in. My insides are having a battle royale : Pro-biotics vs. Anti-biotics. Who will take the crown?

Just wanted to join the walking wounded.

The models and all of your posts are making my snow glands salivate more than Homer Simpson thinking of anything edible and beer. Droooooooool.


Thanks P!


Yuk- I hope you feel better Heavy!
Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 747
99. Pcroton
7:58 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Joe B is excited.

===

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2m

ECMWF has what would be a near record US Snowcover by 240 hours. 4 storms in 10 days send snowcover to Austin to Atlanta line

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2m

For the 4th time this winter, a warmup would end with a snowstorm in the DC/PHL corridor early next week. How wild is that!

===

I don't know why people dislike Joe. What's wrong with passion? He does get caught up in the excitement some times and it has gotten the better of him but so what?


I think everyone should take note that some very well known private forecasters are calling for a winter storm while the corporate/governement outlets are saying warm and wet.

I'd lean towards the folks not bound by protocol, procedure, or politics to give the inside scoop on what might be coming.

The NWS is bound to approach conservatively. Especially in light of the Atlanta situation where they are taking heat the last thing they need to do is sound a blizzard alarm 6 days out and have the storm be a disorganized mess. This is why while a storm is unfolding they slowly stair step their forecasting up - rather than just jacking things to the maximum at the start - only to accidentally over do it. The NWS does NOT like to have to trend a forecast downward once they make it. They only like to go up as needed.


In some ways this coming event, while we discuss modeling, we are getting a glimpse of some of the individual problems behind the scenes (operational procedure, political implications) in regards to forecasting a storm event in advance.

Remember, the private forecasters had it right a couple of times this winter, with the media/government outlets playing catch up at the last moment.

I always think it pays to know what might be coming beforehand.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
98. Pcroton
7:50 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
12Z Guidance has shifted northward with Monday's system. This could still be a surprise player in the end for NJ/DE.





And since it's part of the discussion here...this is the 12Z guidance for Wednesday. Note how much these solutions continue to jump around by 100s of miles each new run. All this continues to tell me is that there is going to be a disturbance in the region, it's going to be strong with a lot of moisture, and that at this time due to a lack of data sampling of the energy involved, the models are struggling with how to actually solve the energy.



There is nothing else one can make of that at this time. Other than that above scenario is unreasonable given where we believe the polar vortex will be (Eastern Canada).

Can't have both - and as of right now the dominant feature we can see and can forecast, the polar vortex, will be under control of the territory the models are trying to ram a storm into...which isn't possible.

At some point what will happen is the models will get the data that was well sampled from the Wednesday disturbances and suddenly you'll see the models begin to lock in on a particular region more. As long as they are flipping around by 100s of miles like this and by 12-24 hours in timing each new run - you know you have no verifiable solution.

It is probably going to continue right into Sunday.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
97. Pcroton
7:41 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
GFS and NAM 84hr Totals looking across the northern areas.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
96. Pcroton
7:37 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
In the northern portions of our region there's a decent snowfall threat over the next 72 Hours (thru Sunday 7am)


HPC 4" plus probabilities.




HPC resonable maximum potential.





There's a nice feature moving through the Great Lakes



It will head up silently into Canada however.

Sunday is when the snows come for northern NY and northern New England.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
95. Pcroton
7:20 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Ugh. We don't want freezing rain. I don't even want to be talking about that but I guess we will be doing so.

If you poke around, Monday was first forecast to be highs in the 40s... and now...:

MONDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

MONDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

TUESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF
RAIN 30 PERCENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

==============


It's interesting that while there are people that dislike the models, model watching, and trying to figure an outcome off of models in the medium-long range - but this is EXACTLY what the NWS is doing at this point in time - and horribly at that - switching my forecast around every way imaginable over the past 36 hours.

Dry, Warm, Cold, Rain, Snow, Rain to Snow, Snow to Rain - has already been forecast for any one of Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday - all just in the past 36 hours. Each day has had any one of the above at one point in time.

Terrible...

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
94. Pcroton
7:14 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Ouch! Someone got on his nerves. Wish I knew the link he's talking about. Would like to see what it was.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
93. Dodabear
7:13 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Excerpt from NWS Sterling, VA, on the upcoming event. I do not like their take on the outcome.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING WINTER WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FAR OUT THERE IS OBVIOUSLY PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING...INTENSITY AND TRACK. THESE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. HAVE THE GENERIC RAIN/SNOW P-TYPE IN THE GRIDS...BUT MODELS HINT THAT A SURFACE WEDGE/CAD SCENARIO MAY BE IN PLACE WHILE WARMING ENSUES ALOFT AND THAT MEANS THAT FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY BE A LEGITIMATE -TYPE/CONCERN FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.
Member Since: July 28, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 2279
92. wxgeek723
6:51 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Gary is a good man.

Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 34m
My 'thanks' to the completely irresponsible people who were just trying to be 'helpful' by posting a graphic of huge snowstorm affecting the region 10 days out. So far, I've had to calm down two county EMs and one state EM who are being hit with questions about the 'big snowstorm' heading our way. Inducing public panic is NOT a public service. Knock it off.

Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3602
91. HeavySnow
6:42 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 83. Pcroton:


Hi Heavy. I had the flu. It's the bird flu from decades ago that was supposed to wipe out all of humanity.

It wasn't pleasant!

I am pulling for the CFS model ensemble member that place 50+" snow pack in central Virginia in 20 days. Yes, we'll just go with that one!





I agree the "big one" is coming in February. Do I end up with the big snows or does Pennsylvania/NY State? That's the ultimate unsolved question at this time. I am convinced somebody in the Middle Atlantic and North East is going to get creamed here in the 5-15 day range though. Probably twice at that.


===



CFS model ensemble it is then! Oh how I'd love that.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
90. doom22015
6:28 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
I am pulling for the CFS model ensemble member that place 50+" snow pack in central Virginia in 20 days. Yes, we'll just go with that one!




Yeah I'll go with that outcome.

But if we did get such an epic event, I just cringe to think about what stupid and embarrassing name TWC would use to talk about the storm.
Member Since: February 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
89. zotty
5:45 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
P- you da man. looking forward to non-18z runs
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88. NEwxguy
4:17 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
I agree with you,doesn't look like a total rainy situation,going to be more a rain/snow line question,and one or more of these storms is going to dump a lot of snow on someone.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 883 Comments: 15862
87. Pcroton
4:12 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Morning, NE. It sure looks a given to get our stormy period before winter releases it's grip. I would lean against the idea that it's going to be mild and rainy. At "worst" (warmest) I'd look for I95 mixing storms. At "best" (coldest) a repeat of the Feb 6-10 2010 period?

We'll certainly get an answer to that come Monday.



===

Gary S of Mount Holly with a nice twitter discussion about the Atlanta storm and governement failures.

It's worth the read. Gotta scroll down quite far (at this point it begins with the 14h comments) to get to the start of his chat last night.

https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski



=

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
86. NEwxguy
3:53 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
So it looks like we got our stormy pattern as we enter the month of Feb.,but I still can't make heads or tails out of how things are going to shake out,but whatever its going to be,it looks like some typical big Feb. storms.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 883 Comments: 15862
85. Pcroton
3:35 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
I knew I disliked the inland and also ill-shaped GFS modeling of this system but... I had no idea it was THIS bad.

====

Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 20m

GFS is physically impossible. Throw it out. ECMWF, CMC, or UKMET all more reasonable.

You can't drive a short wave trough into the Polar Vortex, that's what the GFS does. It's epic stupidity.

====



Tricky patterns like this..its great to have private forecasters such as Steve who aren't bound to parrot a specific model or pattern.

====
Question: (meaning euro model)

@nynjpaweather funny reading afds in mid erst thru considered the euto an outlier

Steve's Answer:

Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 23m
@cowboyfan42 There is my beef with the NWS sometimes. Yeah, it's an outlier but it's physically makes sense.
====


...so we wait. As thought the models (particularly the GFS it seems) just dont have the data needed to paint a logical picture here.

That will come when we near the event. Going to see the models flip around and then quickly lock in on a similar scenario.


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
84. Pcroton
2:09 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Here's the current model rendering of the storms ahead.

Notice the huge flips in ideas between these and the blog header posting. What does this mean? It just means the models see disturbances coming and depending on how they see the polar energy phasing (and when) yields these varying solutions. In that it just shows that the disturbances aren't properly sampled and thus you see widely ranging solutions with each new model run as a new set of incomplete and inaccurate sampling data are crunched by the software.

It would pay very little to "side" with any one solution.


HPC 7 Day:





Here's the current 0z GFS:


Monday: Far south as it can get with this solution.




Evolution of the mid week storm:





Notice how we get a coastal low development but then just like that it's gone. Notice how far inland the primary low is. These are errors in the model trying to resolve the energy but not knowing how to resolve it - this is due to a lack of data on the polar disturbance that will play in.



Look at how the primary low vanishes, the coastal low vanishes, and we end up with a compromise of energy consolidating near NYC. Again, the model sees all this energy, know it will come through the region, but cannot resolve it. Yesterday's 0Z model run did a better job.

Notice the errors showing up here - the odd shaped low center with the model trying to resolve energy with multiple troughs leading out in all directions (stretched isobars). This low center presentation isn't logical.




It all comes down to available data. Until we get the primary sampled on Sunday and the polar on Monday - the models will just try to resolve the energy they know is coming - and you get these wildly flipping solutions - and solutions that have no root in logic or physics.

So we wait...

==========================


Notice the followup storm, but on this run it shoots due east out to sea. That is impossible due to the Atlantic high which we KNOW will exist. This run is in error here:




But again, what we do know, and the models show consitently, is a supply of disturbances that will be threatening the region. That's what you can take from them at this time.

So we've established that the models stink, particularly with the inclusion of a pattern change.

So why do we bother to watch them? They still serve the purpose of showing energy, where it is generally heading, and the "what ifs" based off of the possible different energy interaction. We can dismiss several scenarios from the start when they are visibly not possible. Others are plausible solutions such as yesterday's runs.


Well, we've beaten this one to death for now. Have a good afternoon all.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
83. Pcroton
1:50 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 60. HeavySnow:
I've been sick for over a month now with some stomach bug and now the flu has joined in. My insides are having a battle royale : Pro-biotics vs. Anti-biotics. Who will take the crown?

Just wanted to join the walking wounded.

The models and all of your posts are making my snow glands salivate more than Homer Simpson thinking of anything edible and beer. Droooooooool.


Thanks P!


Hi Heavy. I had the flu. It's the bird flu from decades ago that was supposed to wipe out all of humanity.

It wasn't pleasant!

I am pulling for the CFS model ensemble member that place 50+" snow pack in central Virginia in 20 days. Yes, we'll just go with that one!



Quoting 70. PengSnow:
P, Great Continuous Switch up to the blog!!

I would say by Sunday we will have a very good idea, although the hype has already started-wait till friday morning we will be in SUPER HYPE MODE from all facets.

All, i can say"baby its cold out there".

To All be safe and do not venture out in horrendous weather.


Hi Peng. Thanks. Actually with the Super Bowl around, and the media hyping an end to winter and temps in the 40s all next week, and the models struggling with the pattern change - I don't forsee an early hype for this storm. I see a "caught off guard" mentality unfolding here.

Quoting 61. aquak9:
Haven't I been saying all winter so far, "this isn't your big one" over and over since before thanksgiving? Well now I'm not saying it any more. Your storm cometh. (Waves at HeavySnow) push the garlic.


You've had a nose for it. I agree the "big one" is coming in February. Do I end up with the big snows or does Pennsylvania/NY State? That's the ultimate unsolved question at this time. I am convinced somebody in the Middle Atlantic and North East is going to get creamed here in the 5-15 day range though. Probably twice at that.


===

And to anyone I missed thanks for the comments and participation.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
82. Pcroton
1:41 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 80. PhillySnow:
Thanks for the analysis, P. This waiting period is always hard and it helps to know what I'm looking for as the storms comes together.


Good morning!

It can be frustrating for those of little patience!

Unfortunately, I'm one of those hah!


As with every new pattern change we know the models, and thus the forecasting, is going to be highly variable and ever changing. This is going to be a case where come Wednesday every single possible forecast will have been typed up and released for us. Rain, Snow, Sleet, Mix, Ice, All, None...

The models simply don't do well when a pattern has changed and they are awful with the "first storm" of such a pattern. The models are best off of consistent patterns. We're now caught in an evolving pattern that has not yet taken shape fully.

It leads to a tiny window of success because until all the players are firmly on the field and well sampled the models are just going to be all over the place.

Sunday...our southern stream low should be well established and sampled. Monday is when the polar counterpart comes into view but I still suspect that it won't be well sampled until late Monday.

Could see wild shifts in rain/snow lines in model and forecast even on Tuesday with this particular event.

It's going to be a tough nut to crack.

It's all in good fun though. I enjoy watching the evolution as much as I enjoy the storms.


I will say this, the NWS and especially the media are too warm with the coming weeks. I've heard "winter is over." far too much the past day. They're wrong.

It's going to be seasonally warm over the weekend. Then on Monday things begin to change.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
81. Pcroton
1:34 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Just want to post the GEFS Spaghettis for MSLP 1008mb...for our storm.



As you can see the models are clueless at this time however they all bring a storm to the region.

A storm is coming....... we will be able to nail down the timing of the jet stream interaction and thus a potential track solution in 3 or 4 days.




Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
80. PhillySnow
1:32 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Thanks for the analysis, P. This waiting period is always hard and it helps to know what I'm looking for as the storms comes together.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1237
79. Pcroton
1:13 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Here is the HPC.NCEP take on the situation. Again, the storm IS coming, it's all a question of track, which is a question of jet stream interaction timing.

All outlets are telling you the same thing. WE DONT KNOW.

We know the storm is coming, we dont know the track. Notice at the end of this discussion they speak of the cold air dropping in behind the mid week storm. As discussed above if we do get a follow up system the track would be further East as a result.

Folks that miss out on the snows of the first event may find themselves redeemed with the second.




===================

Extended forecast discussion
Nws weather prediction center college park md
143 am est thu jan 30 2014

Valid 12z sun feb 02 2014 - 12z thu feb 06 2014

...Overview and preferences...

Individual model runs and ensembles show typical
Variability/spread but remain consistent in showing a mean pattern
Featuring wrn canada/nrn conus flow around a mean closed low
Over/near hudson bay along with a separate wrn conus mean trough.
Within this large scale background the dominant system of interest
Will be an ern pac feature that will track through the southwest
Early next week... And during tue-wed bring a broad area of winter
Weather into the ern half of the conus with hvy rnfl psbl in parts
Of the warm sector. The ensemble means have been most stable in
Their account for how nrn stream flow will interact with the ern
Pac/swrn conus system by the middle of next week. Therefore those
Solns are preferred during the latter half of the period with the
12z ecmwf/12z naefs/18z gefs means favored in that order of
Priority as gefs means have been a tad faster so far. A
Compromise among the 12z ecmwf/12z ukmet/18z gfs appears
Reasonable to resolve diffs that exist from day 3 sun into early
Day 5 tue.

(snip)


...Sensible weather highlights...

The initial ern pac system will likely bring only modest rnfl to
Areas along the ca coast sun-mon. As this system continues onward
Expect a broad pcpn shield to expand from the srn half of the
Rockies/plains across much of the ern half of the conus mon
Night-wed. Based on most likely evolution of this storm an area
From the cntrl or s-cntrl plains into new england should have the
Highest potential for significant snowfall. Some freezing/frozen
Pcpn... Either for an extended time or as part of a changeover to
Rain... Is likely just s of this area. Meanwhile the region from
The s-cntrl ms vly into the tn vly nwd to about the oh river
Currently has the highest potential for hvy rnfl. This system
Will help to pull another surge of cold air into the cntrl-ern
States tue-thu with a broad area of min/max temps 10-25f below
Normal... As well as low wind chill values in the breezy conds
Between the departing low and high pres settling into the plains.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
78. Pcroton
1:11 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
In regards to Monday we also are far from a solution at this time.

The models are struggling with the evolving pattern change out west and it looks like our window into the future is very short.


Here's Mount Holly's take on the evolution of next week and as you can tell they have no real idea what to expect.

======================

A wave of low
Pressure may develop on the front to the south on monday. High
Pressure will then build back into the region for monday night
Into early tuesday. Then, an area of low pressure will develop
Along the gulf of mexico coast and move northeastward toward the
Mid-atlantic states on wednesday.

(snip)

Then the mdls begin to diverge. The gfs, cmc and wpc guid all
Build in a large area of high pres and keep sun night and mon dry.
The ecmwf does develop a wave on the front and brings precip to
Mainly srn sections of the area sunday night into mon. The cmc
Despite its large high tries top bring precip up to the lwr
Delmarva. The other mdls are further s. Each mdl suite is sticking
To its guns. So until so trends develop, its hard to find a soln
To hang one`s hat on and confidence remains low.

(snip)

Then, an area of low pressure will develop over the glfmex cst.
It will track newd into the tn vly tue night and into the mid-atlc
On wed. All of the mdls are showing cstl development with this
Low after it passes our region. As of now, they are in remarkable
Agreement on track and strength but there are subtle diffs that
Could ultimately be important as the midweek time frame approaches.

Daytime high temps look to be warm enough for plain rain in most
Areas but night time lows will be below freezing. So this looks to
Be a snow to rain or mixed precip event in many areas. There
Could be icing as well (especially n and w) as the event
Transitions. For now, for the sake of simplicity, will just go
With rain and snow. The mdls will ultimately make changes to the
Track and strength of this low and all of these will impact the
Thermal structure of the atmosphere and hence precip type. As the
Event approaches, will be able to have a better handle on what
Falls where. Due to the gulf origins of this storm there will be
Decent moisture to work with, in whatever form it may be falling.


======================


Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
77. Pcroton
12:59 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 73. procharged:
Yeah the models just can't seem to get a good grasp on things. Hell if you would of said tha ca mountains would be getting 2 ft of snow this weekend from what the models were saying Then . you would of said are you crazy. But hence here it comes


Actually the GFS for some time had been trying to break down the western ridge and open up the NW Pacific for the storms to roll into the coast. It was something that led me to discuss how winter's return to the East coast was looking delayed well beyond the January 16th initial target date.

If I could find the posts (without sifting through every page on every entry) on it I'd repost them but about 12-15 days ago the GFS depicted this. All the images I post are re-hosted so they are static images taken from the time of the postings. I think the GFS solution was early by a few days but it did see the pattern change. At 384 hours it had painted the Sierra in 24"+ when at 300 hours they were barren. Subsequent runs did revert before eventually going back to the idea. We now see it unfolding out west and that is setting the pathway for our Wednesday storm to roll into the west coast.

Quoting 65. procharged:
The storm early next week will set the tone for the later storm tracks and I feel they will trend more west than off the coast with alot of close calls for snow south of newyork. But who knows cant trust any models or thinking anymore.


If we were to get a back to back I think the second storm would track further East of the first storm. I think the first storm would weaken the western edge of the Atlantic high and in it's wake a more solid hit of cold air would drop in from Canada. Those two results would push the storm track further East for the followup system.

If there were more time between systems then you see the air mass rebound after the initial cold hit behind the first storm and then the second storm would probably follow the first's track.



Quoting 74. Climate175:
Ice or snowstorm for the mid-atlantic ?


Way too early for that but the NOAA hazards map, in 1900hurricane's blog, did show an icing threat in the 3-7 day range for VA, MD, DE.

Quoting 72. Jasspjesta:


Good article wxgeek. Another blessing from this cold is it's just simply killing off all the allergens that have been around for the past 2 winters. This is the first time in the past 2 years I don't have a nagging cough and bronchial problems. Hopefully that holds true throughout the spring when it arrives!


I don't know if extreme cold would knock down Spring allergens... but I'm with wxgeek, we need some bugs to die. Too many have wintered over recently and we have a bumper crop of insects.


Quoting 75. aquak9:
Hi P et al
Bugg its good to see you n I hope you've stayed warm. Gonna be a cold Feb coming, I think.
P i get to go home to 77, heading east to beach, this has been more than a quadruple of the past two winters

Happy people here in Miami from all over the country.

Peace-


Hi Aqua!

February is always fickle. At this time I see a few days of moderate seasonal temps, a string of storms, a final quiet arctic hit after the pipeline is exhausted, one last storm to bring the pattern change about, and then spring.

I'm not so sure I buy the GFS/CFS massive arctic intrusions but I do believe it will be cold after the passage of our 10 day stormy period.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
76. Pcroton
12:38 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Good Morning. NWS presently leaning towards an inland track at this time for the bigger storm next week.



TUESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF
RAIN 30 PERCENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.



It doesn't pay to attempt to nail down any details this far in advance. Ice, Snow, Rain...too early for that. Hopefully by Sunday we get a decent idea but it will probably be more about Monday with such an intense disturbance that will be subject to fragile timing.

We know the disturbance is coming as we can both see it and see the steering pattern for it.

What we can't see is how strong the Atlantic high is going to be pushing into the East Coast and we cannot see the timing between the Alaskan disturbance, which becomes our southern stream storm, and the polar disturbance that will interact with it.

Early interaction and a strong Atlantic high yields an Appalachian track and thus SE and I95 is rain...while the interior gets bombed with heavy snows, something we haven't seen for some time. (Talking western PA, West/Central NY, WV, etc.)

Later interaction and a little weaker Atlantic high yields an I95 to Coastal event. Then we're talking details of Snow to Rain/Mix back to Snow for the immediate coasts and heavy snows for the I95 corridor.

Again the disturbances do exist and here's Wednesday's:




And here is what the path is that it WILL take:








It is from this point where we lose focus on an end result.

Now you can look back to post #59 which shows two examples of the polar disturbance timing and what your end result could be... and then this one is a third which is generally between yestedays 0Z and 12Z runs.

Here's the result of this particular model run's idea of what the 500mb interaction/timing will look like:




Trying to pin down the polar/sub-trop timing and interaction along with the strength of the Atlantic High pushing to the coast is a fruitless endeavor at this time. We can begin to do that Sunday and probably Monday.

In 2010 I believe 2 of the 4 storms looked to be busts until we were within 48 hours of the onset of the events. Then suddenly the models properly sampled the disturbances and locked in on a viable solution. 1 was well modeled 72 hours in advance. 1 was a no-go until 24 hours out!

The key here is to know the disturbances and know their potential tracks. The models simply show us the possibilities.

The primary disturbance is presently outside any dense data gathering networks and will remain that way for at least another 3 days. It's polar companion disturbance is an unforseen entity at this time that we won't get a good look at for 3 if not 4 days. Until then we just cannot in any way pin down the finer point details.

Make no mistake about it, this disturbance exists, and it IS coming.

What's it's end result? We will know in 72-96 hours.





Yes, it is that fragile of an event. It always is. Those two scenarios are born on phasing windows of about 4 hours in timing difference. To predict that any time beyond 48 hours is a fools errand or a lucky guess. As we know with the immediate coastlines in such events this can go down to the 12 hours and in time frame before we truly know the exact border zone details.

At least this time two of the three players, the primary storm system, and the Atlantic high pressure, are in existance and we can watch them evolve day to day. The polar disturbance is the unknown factor and we just won't know for several days what that will look like. Once we see it we can begin to muse about phasing timing and the surface tracks such timing leads to.

Then there is always the one big fly in the ointment: Do we get a coastal low redevelopment, and if so how fast does the primary inland low transfer the energy? The earlier the coastal low takes over the quicker the cold air will rush into the coasts and wrap into the storm. The later it waits, the longer the inland low holds on, the longer warm air floods inland into that low... and we know one thing, the ocean is very warm. Any early phasing storm and/or late coastal transfer spells warm air for the I95 corridor. Again this is a fine point detail which we have no ability to forsee this far in advance.



====================================

Now a storm we can't yet speak on is the potential followup because as of now it does not exist, whereas Wednesday's storm DOES exist, and the model pretty much develops it out of thin air from the GOM.



In this case we do not have a disturbance we could yet follow. There is no sampling of this disturbance as a result and thus the models are just flying by the seat of their pants here.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 55 Comments: 8632
75. aquak9
12:10 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Hi P et al
Bugg its good to see you n I hope you've stayed warm. Gonna be a cold Feb coming, I think.
P i get to go home to 77, heading east to beach, this has been more than a quadruple of the past two winters

Happy people here in Miami from all over the country.

Peace-
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
74. Climate175
3:31 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
Ice or snowstorm for the mid-atlantic ?
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4232
72. Jasspjesta
3:29 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 66. wxgeek723:
The upside to this crap

Biting cold could exterminate pesky invader in the Pinelands


Good article wxgeek. Another blessing from this cold is it's just simply killing off all the allergens that have been around for the past 2 winters. This is the first time in the past 2 years I don't have a nagging cough and bronchial problems. Hopefully that holds true throughout the spring when it arrives!
Member Since: December 8, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
71. absurfer
3:26 AM GMT on January 30, 2014
Quoting 63. procharged:
Been watching these blogs for a while and can't understand how even mentioning storms 7 and 14 days out make sense right now. Seems also you always pick the models that only show big storms over others. That is not weather forecasting but forecast wishing. All the storms have been now casts this year and will stay that way. Take them one at a time instead. My thinking is the storms in feb. will be taking more westward tracks and not off the coast bringing to much warm air in. But we shall see its useless to even talk about these storms this far out.
I like your blog procton keep up the good work hype or not don't give up I like weather not gw talk bring it nothings useless except drama on dr m blog
Member Since: January 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 138

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About Pcroton

Located in Monmouth County in central NJ. Watching the weather from North Carolina to Maine.