Good Morning. First off we'd like to wish a fellow blogger well in health.
Quoting 49. originalLT:
5years ago this month I had quintuple by-pass open heart
surgery, Now I'm feeling some discomfort in my left side of my chest, gonna have it checked out. If I don't post for a while it's because I've been
admitted to the hospital to be checked out. Hope that does't happen, wish me luck, LT
Good Luck, LT. Hope things turn out minor.
Today in the Middle Atlantic and North East we have snow squalls on the way. I'm looking for 1-2" at the coasts and 2-4" inland. I realize this is more than the modeling shows but I think more of these heavy squalls will survive the mountains than advertised.
NAM Simulated Radar:
Looking ahead to the rest of the week we have bitter cold and an out to sea storm track. Further to our North West it appears significant Lake Effect Snows are setting up.
Newark, NJ Bufkit Data:
Washington, DC Bufkit Data:
144hr Regional Snowfall Totals: Today
For some time there it appeared that Eastern NC could see several inches of snow, and this is still a possibility, but latest model runs are further
out to sea with a string of less organized disturbances.
GFS off the coast:
GFS rendering Yesterday:
144hr Snowfall showing NC Potential: Yesterday
Further ahead it looks like we will finally see our Sub-Tropical Jet Stream come alive and give us a couple of disturbances in a row timed with, you guessed it, the outdoors Super Bowl event in the Meadowlands.
Shortly after on February 4th a secondary storm is forming in the South East headed for our region. At this time, and you can never pinpoint finer details, the systems are modeled to take a slightly inland track which would bring a whole array of nasty weather from snow, to sleet, to rain. It is entirely possible we see a few classic I-95 boundary events of which was the case earlier in the year.
Supportive of I95 boundary events is the very warm waters just off shore. If these are tapped by strong Easterly surface winds then yes we will see the classic setups of everyone starting as snow and then the usual Eastern and coastal areas changing to sleet and then rain.
At this time we merely see a pattern of increasing southern stream disturbances combining with arctic air from the north. Attempting to nail down timing, amounts, and rain/snow lines is a fools errand. I think the disturbances will be there to be had but in what nature is unforseen. They could be I95 mixes but it also wouldn't take much to make them widespread regional snowfalls, either. Stay tuned.
8-14 Day Temperature Outlooks, Feb 2-9. Placement of this anomaly would favor east coast storms but...inland tracking as far as the DC-NYC corridor is concerned. Coastal NJ, DE, MD, etc...could find themselves on the short end of the snow stick with this setup. We're still too early for that determination but going with what we have it does look like your classic snow-sleet-to rain setup for the I95 corridor and points south and east. Could this be the setup Pennsylvania and interior NY has been lacking for years? Could be.
Lastly, I have given up on the NAO. I had no opinion on what it may do as that is above my knowledge level, but many folks really had high hopes this would go strongly negative around Mid-January and play a crucial role in a blocking pattern that would give us a high risk of blockbuster snow events. It's been positive, remains positive, and will continue positive. We're starting to get late here with this.
As a final note we have been seeing the models in the long range continuously trying to revive winter going all the way back to January 16th. As we know we had five systems lined up, one for the 16th, one for the 18th, one for the 21st, the 27th, and the 30th. Only the third system panned out thus far. Given the high level of recent long range failures I would remain on the cautious side yet there are signs we will return to stormy weather one way or another in early February.
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