Middle Atlantic Dec 14-15 Snow Threat

By: Pcroton , 9:15 PM GMT on December 10, 2013

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Well, I lied, I had to look, and oh boy do we have a headache on our hands for the Saturday-Sunday time frame.

I also wanted to give people a glimpse of it instead of holding off until Thursday - which is when I will re-visit everything.

The forecasting failures due to model interpretatin were detailed at the end of the previous blog if you are interested in my thoughts on what had trasnpired.

On to the next....

So here we go with some early maps:

HPC Analysis at 5 Days shows the complex system.



GFS Analysis at 114 and 120 hours: College of DuPage



GFS Temps at 114 and 120 hours: This looks bad. A forecasting nightmare is unfolding.



GFS accumulated precipitation:



GFS snowfall as per the Earl Barker models:



GFS snowfall DEPTH as per TwisterData - only out to 114 hours at the time I checked.




===

Here is Mount Holly's latest comments on it. I will be tracking the ups and downs of forecasting through the event. Not so much to try to go after them but to just highlight how forecasts can wildly swing with each new model data. We can discuss why that is a problem at a later time, as now is the time to just start getting aware of the incoming strong storm.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

ON SATURDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W OR SW AND PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP DURG THE DAY. WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY AT THE ONSET
ESPECIALLY N AND W, WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM THE S
AND E. MVFR AND IFR IS LIKELY AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THESE,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP ATTM.

SATURDAY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND
SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN
A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.


SUNDAY
PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.

============

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195. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:24 AM GMT on December 15, 2013
Pcroton has created a new entry.
194. originalLT
5:05 AM GMT on December 15, 2013
"P", it looks like that coastal low over N.C. never was able to throw much precip. this way, or pull down the colder air back into our area. That surge of warmth was just too much for us in SW CT. Most of Westchester and NE NJ to overcome. Did get about 6" here in Stamford. Temp. at midnight up to 28F, Baro. down to 29.85", winds still N to NE 8-13mph. Now very light sleet and freezing rain. Was a fun day though.
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193. originalLT
1:42 AM GMT on December 15, 2013
Wow, that's a let down Philly.
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192. PhillySnow
1:31 AM GMT on December 15, 2013
Quoting 183. PhillySnow:
Steven DiMartino just posted over 6" for Philadelphia! He sees the NC low bringing cold air back into the region. What I'm curious about, though, is how long the precip is going to last. Radar seems to indicate that it's moving north of us, but I guess more is going to form?
Ok; now he's saying that was an error. It's raining. We got only about an inch, low end of forecast range.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1210
191. originalLT
12:58 AM GMT on December 15, 2013
Temp. slowly creeping up here, now 19.6F wind still N to NE at times 5-10mph., Barometer down to 30.19" , Mod. snow . A solid 4 " on the ground.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7075
190. originalLT
12:55 AM GMT on December 15, 2013
Cool site to get straight line or driving distances between to cities is: distancefromto.net. I just checked the straight line distance from Stamford CT. where I am , to Long Branch NJ., the approx. location of the rain/snow line according to Accuweather radar, and it measured 57 miles. Fun to play around with.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7075
189. goofyrider
12:38 AM GMT on December 15, 2013
DAUGH NO 2 text from Rumson that they have tons of snow there looks like 3-4 in.

latest surface pressure : http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/vie wsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source= 1#

no sign of upper air levels responding
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188. originalLT
12:33 AM GMT on December 15, 2013
Tornado watch in extreme easter N.C.--a lot of energy down there.
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187. originalLT
12:26 AM GMT on December 15, 2013
If the low forms and follows the direction or vector of that trough, it would be pretty good, looks to be going or pointing towards the "bench mark" area.
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186. beell
12:21 AM GMT on December 15, 2013
Surface trough extending offshore. Trying to make a low.


23Z RAP 2 hr press change
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185. beell
12:14 AM GMT on December 15, 2013
Appears some CAD is working in your favor, P. WAA is waging a struggle against the cold high pressure to the north. Wouldn't you know, YOU would be right on the battle line, lol.

Best WAA coninues to be over SW PA. As the broad 850 mb system (currently over OH) gains a bit more latitude perhaps we will see some sort of a center jump offshre and WAA will begin to win out in a more widespread and consistent fashion.

Current RAP. 950 mb may illustrate better than words from me.


(click for full image)

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15353
184. TheRasberryPatch
11:56 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Heavy snow with big flakes coming down. I would guess 5" at least.

26F

the radar is showing dry echoes towards Maryland panhandle heading my way.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6234
183. PhillySnow
11:37 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Steven DiMartino just posted over 6" for Philadelphia! He sees the NC low bringing cold air back into the region. What I'm curious about, though, is how long the precip is going to last. Radar seems to indicate that it's moving north of us, but I guess more is going to form?
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1210
182. Pcroton
11:35 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
30F still. Heavy snow and sleet mix now. Air "smells warm/marine" so I think it's coming.

5" here. Last I shoveled was 3.5" and I just cleared a second time in case the change did come and it was 1.5".

Now we see if the coastal low takes a nice track and goes and taps that ice cold air just sitting to my north and west.

All about the wind direction for me here.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 30 Comments: 5191
181. johnbluedog69
11:33 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Steady cold rain all afternoon here.Temp steady at 40 after a high of 45 today.Pressure 30.01 and falling after a high of 30.35 today.Hope you enjoy your snow "P"!!!
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180. aquak9
11:31 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
hey P
hey everyone else

it rained here- YAWN- they raised one eyebrow about severe, but it was a no-go

BORING rain and temps in the fifties

grumble mumble OH my aching bones
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25510
179. PhillySnow
11:22 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Dropped a degree to 30F; sleet or freezing rain mixing in with snow. Roads covered. Waiting to see what happens with phase 2.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1210
178. Pcroton
11:14 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
People along the coasts are warm and wet but those a bit further inland with mix or wet have hope if/when the coastal low winds up because this time there is PLENTY of air to tap. PLENTY!!! I cannot stress that enough. If the low winds up and the wind shifts more northerly again you will go back over.

Temps are still FALLING inland.



This is not a question of temps as it is a question of wind direction.

As coastal low takes over winds shift from east to northeast to north.

This could play out favorably.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 30 Comments: 5191
177. Pcroton
11:10 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
If it does it won't be for hours unfortunately. I'm thinking 2-4 hours to develop to a point where we can say we think we know what it will do next. Then another 2-4 hours to actually cause the temps to swing.

Temps holding inland, warm in coastal plain.



I am still at 30F. Not far from that 31F reading.

I see 36-40 to my SE and that's a common setup in these scenarios. Whether or not that surges in here (seems inevitable) and when (always quite the delay) who can say.

Then after..we wait to see if it flips around.

I can say at this point no matter what it does we overperformed greatly here. It was always a possibility but seemed remote with the very early morning guidance. Then the arctic front decided it wanted to keep coming south.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 30 Comments: 5191
176. Jasspjesta
11:02 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Steady cold rain down rt 70 from Marlton to Southampton NJ - Northwest Burlington county - hope has faded. C'mon NC low give us a spark.
Member Since: December 8, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
175. Pcroton
10:59 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Spring Lake is about a 15 minute drive to the SE.

Whether or not the warmth floods up into the hills here we don't know. Certainly possible.

If it does it's happening a whole lot later than anyone thought.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 30 Comments: 5191
174. Pcroton
10:58 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
We still have heavy snow here. It is not big flaked though..medium and small flakes..and still blowing around like dust. We have small drifts forming. People reporting snow right at the coasts is good too.

We have our low developing nicely in eastern NC so there is a chance that as this winds up cold air could return back into zones it changed over in as the night goes on. Truthfully there is no telling.

I'm probably around 5" now. I know the streamlines show east but the snow is falling down from the NNE to NE...so I don't know what to make of that.





If the storm really developed then the 850mb black line gets pulled down into it I would think and as the low hits the waters and deepens the process speeds up.

SO there's still hope. At this point as I said it looks like the border zones (Myself, 1" forecast, now at 5") are now included in the good hit, while the nothing zones became border zones with a good taste.

Well, after a whole day of track, we're really just waiting for the low to develop and see what that brings. Probably going to take the evening to do that.

I will chime back in in detail if something of real interest pops up. Otherwise might see me texting here or there.

Fun day watching all this unfold against what we thought would occur.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 30 Comments: 5191
173. wxgeek723
10:55 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Time is not on your side either P

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
519 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-014-016>020-026-027-142330-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
519 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

.NOW...
THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND RAIN IS PUSHING STEADILYNORTHWARD FROM THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. AT 515 PM...IT EXTENDED FROM NEAR WILMINGTON DELAWARE TO NEAR PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO NEAR MOUNT LAUREL AND MOUNT HOLLY IN BURLINGTON COUNTY TO NEAR SPRING LAKE IN SOUTHEASTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY.

THE TRANSITION TO SLEET RAIN IS DRIFTING STEADILY NORTH.

Wayside near Route 18 reporting 3.5" per Mt. Holly PNS
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172. TheRasberryPatch
10:51 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
I see the snow has changed to rain in the Army/Navy game

Go Navy beat Army

Still all snow here in the LSV with slow falling temps. now at 26.3F

Looking at the radar the echoes are drying out to my SW. I wonder with the energy transfer will the precipitation fill in for the LSV
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171. wxgeek723
10:44 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Changed over. :(
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3323
170. Pcroton
10:14 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
NOW
THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE DELMARVA
AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. AT 445 PM...IT EXTENDED FROM
ABOUT BETTERTON ON THE KENT...CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND BORDER TO NEAR
SAINT GEORGES IN CENTRAL NEW CASTLE COUNTY OF NORTHERN DELAWARE TO
NEAR MARLTON LAKES IN BURLINGTON COUNTY TO JACKSON AND LAKEWOOD OF
NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY TO NEAR SEA GIRT IN SOUTHEASTERN MONMOUTH
COUNTY.
THE TRANSITION TO RAIN IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AT ABOUT 5 TO 10
MILES AN HOUR.
ITS PROJECTED TO PASS THROUGH WILMINGTON DELAWARE...MOUNT HOLLY
AND FREEWOOD LAKES NEW JERSEY AROUND 615 PM.


====
422 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING
* LOCATIONS...THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST MARYLAND
THROUGH WILMINGTON TO PHILADELPHIA.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES.


330 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING

TONIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING...THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.



=========

Wake up, Mount Holly, it's been snowing all day and I have 4". Your update is way late and still undercut.

It's in SW NJ and DE and moving at 5-10mph? It would take all night to get here at that rate.

Something's off...
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 30 Comments: 5191
169. originalLT
10:09 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
"P" just looked at the Accuweather regional radar, and it shows your area right on the rain/snow border, with that warm "tongue" lifting north fairly rapidly. I hope its wrong.
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168. Pcroton
10:08 PM GMT on December 14, 2013


Looking down the street. Visibility is low. Heavy snow. 30F. 4". TF, NJ.



Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 30 Comments: 5191
167. Pcroton
10:05 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Quoting 164. wxgeek723:
Bellmawr, NJ 6 miles SSE of center city Philly.
33F, down from 35 earlier
Do I happen to be in the right place at the right time? Steady snow has been falling all afternoon, just now finally starting to accumulate. Most of South Jersey reporting rain, not even 10 miles south of me it is raining. Thinking my luck will run out soon.


It is a tough call at this point. If the second low ramps up it has ample cold air to pull in with fresh northerly winds and a change back to snow would be quick.

On the other hand if it takes its time and the inland low hangs on and the whole thing progresses north then the east winds have ample coastal heat to push inland. I would eventually go over to mix then rain as well.

At this point we were all supposed to be rain and 39 or so and washed away. I have nearly 4" and heavy snow.

The temps dropped all day and continue to drop all the way in DE even (except at the immediate coasts where east wind has pushed up a bit).

Storm is forming a whole lot further south than expected which shifts its overall track further south and east.

And in a fragile "10 miles means everything" system this is great news for border zones like myself which now appear to have a chance to be within the heavy snow accumulations... and areas expecting a coating then rain..are now in that border zone to see some action.

Well...dinner time.

A few hours this evening and we'll start to know.

Keep on eye on eastern NC, pressure falls, and winds.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 30 Comments: 5191
166. Pcroton
9:32 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Okay, self explanatory, 2PM to 4PM temps, and remember this has been an all day trend except for very early morning when ocean/atlantic/capemay counties in NJ and delaware were warming. Everyone else was cooling.

Now it's all cooling except immediate coastline in response to easterly wind but for how long does that continue.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE:



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165. Pcroton
9:18 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Again does this mean that you can just paint all of NJ and CT and LI in 12"+? That we won't get a warm surge of sleet and rain as this thing winds up?

Of course not. But we're getting a whole lot more than anticipated and really this thing doesnt have to evolve much more before everyone's getting hit...anyway.

This certainly isn't the 39F and rain with snow already gone I was tagged to have by now.

It's 29F, moderate snow, 3.5"


There are a lot of hints that the border zones are going to get smashed and the real border zones will be a whole lot further south than expected.
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164. wxgeek723
9:14 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Bellmawr, NJ 6 miles SSE of center city Philly.
33F, down from 35 earlier
Do I happen to be in the right place at the right time? Steady snow has been falling all afternoon, just now finally starting to accumulate. Most of South Jersey reporting rain, not even 10 miles south of me it is raining. Thinking my luck will run out soon.
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163. Pcroton
9:14 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
4PM Temps:




3PM Temps:



Dropping...dropping...dropping...even at coasts in some spots...especially just inland over DE and NJ.

A couple spots right near the immediate coastline are up a degree but it's insignificant to the larger picture here - which is temps crashing all way down in Delaware even.

Temps dropping throughout the state of NJ.

Sun setting... storm forming further south.. etc.

I dunno. Looks good to me.


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162. Pcroton
9:12 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Steve D points out that there is a developing 850mb low as well in NC.

Also note the freezing point at 850mb.




Also folks the sun is setting fast now.

Back to 29F here. Windy. Dry powdery windswept snow here. We are over 3".

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 30 Comments: 5191
161. originalLT
9:11 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
I hope your analysis is right "P". I'd love to see it be right, and the "big boys" be wrong and miss this. It would be cool later to see them "come around" and have to adjust their forecasts.
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160. Pcroton
9:08 PM GMT on December 14, 2013


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159. Pcroton
9:04 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Cold air damming in full enhanced effect. This thing is running away it would seem. Cold air feeding to back side of developing secondary low - which is occurring well south of original thought - and it's doing it quickly and strongly.

Temps crashing in southern NJ and delaware. Temps were falling all day in central NJ and points north.

I mean...at some point it's gotta go past the tipping point and we go from the 38F slushy inch to rain... to.. ya know what...I think this thing is bombing us.




Just enjoy what you've been seeing occur today.

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158. originalLT
8:57 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
"P", just looked at the last of the Vis. satellite, and that inland low , over Ohio looks very strong as it plows NE, I don't see much in the way of development over the N.C. coastal area, you sure something is forming there? Maybe it's not transferring it's energy that fast and is holding on to it?
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157. Pcroton
8:43 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 1m

The concern here is this process was supposed to develop around DE not NC.




And...there it is.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 30 Comments: 5191
156. Pcroton
8:35 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
3PM Temps. Northern Monmouth county and central monmouth county either stable or continuing to drop.



Southern most monmouth came up a tad again and Ocean county is varied.



Statewide to the south temps have dropped in various locations especially removed from the coastline even in southern most NJ now or remained generally steady. Just a couple spots right at the coast went up a degree but they were spots that went down a degree as well - so steady is the way.


3PM TEMPS:





We're getting close to sundown soon so it's going to be pure marine influence driven and that requires the wind to shift around.

You can compare to the 12PM/2PM TEMPS: Look at the southern most NJ - inland temps from the coast - 30s (above, 3pm map) now where there were 40s. (at 2pm) That is very good.


2PM:





If southern most NJ is dropping temps...where's the warm air? Look at Delaware on the 2pm to the 3pm. DROPPING TEMPS!!!


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155. originalLT
8:32 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
With that being said, my post #150, my temp. is down to 18.2F. "P", you've caught up to, and past me on the snow depth "chart"! I'm stuck at about 2-2.5", only very light snow has been falling the past 2-3 hours. Winds are picking up , out of more of a NE direction, occasionally N at 5-10mph, gusts to 13-14mph.
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154. Pcroton
8:25 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Thanks F1 and thanks for dropping by.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 30 Comments: 5191
153. Pcroton
8:24 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Quoting 149. originalLT:
"P", how can they be so "ignorant " of the current situation. I mean don't they "look out the window"! Or at least see what's doing with the temps? Very frustrating. I know Blizz does not like to "get on" them, But….-- P.S. down to 18.5F at my house Still light snow, the heavier bands still to my SW. ,trying to move NE. Baro. now 30.40F slowly.


Yep, and like I have said from the start I knew Mt Holly would be in for difficulty here but at some point you have to see that and maybe change the nature of your snowfall contour lines.

We frequently have storms that make rain into the southern mile of the county but the freezing line takes a hard right out to sea.

So far today that has happened.

Will warm air and mix or rain come? More than likely there is just too much warmth to ignore.

But whatever change comes is already overdue.

3" and counting in the face of "Less than an inch" foreasting.

*shrug*

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152. TheF1Man
8:24 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Quoting 150. originalLT:
"P", I must say, that on Accuweather regional radar, it shows the rain/snow line advancing steadily northward in NJ, now well North and NW of Atlantic city. If it keeps moving at that speed, it will be by you in a couple of hours.


P you've done a great job tracking this system from beginning to end and I for one enjoy the stream of maps that you post.

LT it may be advancing slightly in NJ, but out over the water below LI the line has not moved much at all. Perhaps the high is holding steady?
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151. Pcroton
8:22 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Maybe so. Even if it does we've well exceeded expecations. We will have to see what it does when it reaches northern ocean county NJ - and if it's actually properly presented on radar as you can't always trust what is actually falling is what the radar enhancement shows.

Well folks all I can say is at this point whatever changeover comes has been delayed. I now have 3" snow.



I was forecast for 1", rising temps all day, and was supposed to be rain or rain/snow mix and 37F now according to guidance and forecasting.

I sit at 30F in a light snow. Was at 29F during the more moderate burst. Common temp motion versus intensity.

And now, we focus towards coastal low development. And guess what.... pressure falls off of NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE.



Got an arctic front about 30 miles south of where it was supposed to be and temps 5-10F colder than expected and snow amounts well exceeding forecast in the border zone.

And now...pressure falls..offshore instead of inland MD/VA they are off NC coastline.

I dunno what this all means but it sounds good LOL.

For a system that is "10 miles in track" sensistive between wet grass and 6 inches of snow in some cases... all this sounds awfully good for the border zones.
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150. originalLT
8:15 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
"P", I must say, that on Accuweather regional radar, it shows the rain/snow line advancing steadily northward in NJ, now well North and NW of Atlantic city. If it keeps moving at that speed, it will be by you in a couple of hours.
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149. originalLT
7:49 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
"P", how can they be so "ignorant " of the current situation. I mean don't they "look out the window"! Or at least see what's doing with the temps? Very frustrating. I know Blizz does not like to "get on" them, But….-- P.S. down to 18.5F at my house Still light snow, the heavier bands still to my SW. ,trying to move NE. Baro. now 30.40F slowly.
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148. Pcroton
7:44 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
OK, time to start going in on them.

"Updated snow maps from mt Holly"

They...lowered my total to the 1" line while I exceed 2".

They....upped my forecast to upper 30s and rain...while I drop to 29F with snow.


Yeah, whatever.


I am near the circled 1-2" dot but am on the 1" line.



THIS AFTERNOON
SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN
INCH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.





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147. Pcroton
7:39 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Non-stop banding development over my area Philly.

Probably temperature gradient/frontogenesis related development.




Taken about 20 minutes ago. Steady snow since.

Still fine powdery snow, 29F, blowing winds and snow blowing around. Close to 3" in some drifts. Around 1" in some windswept exposed spots. Roads covered. I'm calling it 2" now.

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146. Pcroton
7:36 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
Pretty telling. Last one for now.



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145. PhillySnow
7:22 PM GMT on December 14, 2013
OMG the birds are singing. Snow all around us, temps dropping and it all looks good, except....there's no precipitation! Weird nonstorm so far.
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