NHC Conference ..NOLA

By: Patrap , 8:36 PM GMT on April 01, 2007

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52007 National Hurricane Conference, New Orleans April 2-6
Conference Site Link

4 .
Friday, April 6, 2007

8:30 a.m. to 12:00 Noon
Closing General Session



12:00 Noon
Conference Adjourns

Purpose of the Conference NHC conference Link

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific.In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes: Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes
* State of the art programs worthy of emulation
* New ideas being tested or considered
* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs
* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.

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206. bigtrucker
2:39 PM GMT on April 07, 2007
hi Pat
wishing you and your Family a very happy easter
Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 80 Comments: 6119
205. Patrap
9:06 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
WWUS84 KLIX 062052
SPSLIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2007

GMZ530-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-070400-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS-
LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-
POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-
ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-WALTHALL-
WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
351 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2007

...ONE LAST BRUSH WITH WINTER THIS WEEKEND...

A LARGE DOME OF ARCTIC COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE GULF SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTH WINDS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
AIR INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY..AND PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SLEET BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12
CORRIDOR. IN THESE AREAS...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...AND SHOULD NOT PROVIDE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS



OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING LEVEL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
DANGER TO ANY TENDER VEGETATION THAT HAS ALREADY BLOOMED DUE TO THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS. IF YOU HAVE TENDER
PLANTS THAT NEED PROTECTED...PLAN TO DO SO THIS WEEKEND.

THIS WEEKEND'S TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN APRIL ARE EXCEEDINGLY RARE IN OUR AREA.
THE LATEST FREEZES ON RECORD AT NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
ARE APRIL 8TH 1971...AND APRIL 13TH 1940 IN BATON ROUGE.

A MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY...BUT UNTIL THEN...BE
PREPARED FOR UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS COLD SPELL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
204. Patrap
8:35 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
<
091
fxus64 klix 062039
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
339 PM CDT Friday Apr 6 2007


Short term...
secondary shot of colder air now approaching the area...as
signaled by cold air stratocumulus clouds...an increase in the
winds and lower dewpoints. Dewpoints as low as the lower teens
already in southwest Missouri. Going to be a chilly short term
forecast package.


We should see plenty of clouds through the weekend. Cloud cover
tonight should hold temperatures just above freezing in all areas
by a few degrees. Shortwave moving out of Texas will approach the
area Saturday afternoon and evening. Isentropic charts at 290k
show enough lift to trigger precipitation...although it will be
falling into a dry lower layer. This will set up Saturday nights
forecast problem.


While most precipitation should be off the coast...still expect
light precipitation to fall across most of the area. NAM soundings
have been consistent in showing the precipitation to be frozen
along and north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor toward sunrise
Sunday morning. Question will be the surface temperatures.
Freezing temperatures are an exceedingly rare event in our County Warning Area in
April. Mav guidance shows subfreezing temperatures at mcb...btr
and gpt Sunday morning...which would be below or near all time
record lows for the month of April. Met guidance has similar
numbers. Will go somewhat conservative...and mention some
potential for sleet along and north of the Interstate 10/12
corridor...and hold lows close to freezing.


Sunday will be a raw...damp day...especially early. We should see
enough warming for all precipitation to be liquid in all areas.
Will go close to MOS guidance on high temperatures...but would not
be shocked if these need to be lowered in later forecasts.


Plan on issuing Special Weather Statement with zone package highlighting unseasonably
cold weather for the Easter weekend.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
203. thunder1
6:14 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
whats up guys?
200. EmmyRose
4:24 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
http://www.donspage.com/funny/pictures/e_bunny.jpg
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
199. cajunkid
4:18 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
fun
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1281
198. Patrap
4:17 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
Me..Im dabbling in the supple fine art of changing a 1994 Saturn SL-1 lower motor mount. Fascinating.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
197. Patrap
4:16 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
Getting a Haircut is like getting a tire round here.Get in line or take a number..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
196. cajunkid
4:12 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
Patrap, When is there not 20 people in Algie's Barber shop on Metairie Rd? I stopped by there twice this week get my ears lowered.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1281
195. Patrap
4:10 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
NHC Conference in Nawlins, Friday, April 6, 2007

8:30 a.m. to 12:00 Noon CST
Closing General Session



12:00 Noon CST
Conference Adjourns: Thanks for Coming and sharing.. 6
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
193. Patrap
3:58 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
Elevation
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
192. Patrap
3:57 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
Thats a great View mobal..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
191. mobal
2:38 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
Hey Pat, I waved at you yesterday. Did you see me? LOL.....
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 482 Comments: 5333
190. Patrap
12:42 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
In da Garden with My Peeps!..4
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
189. Raysfan70
12:39 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
Good Morning {{Pat}}.

Looks like you better enjoy the Weather that you have right now.
Easter looks to be a rough one for you.

Love to the Family.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
188. Patrap
12:36 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
GFSx showing our lil Easter storm blowing thru tommorrow..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
186. Raysfan70
11:07 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
{{Pat}}

COOL MySpace Comments
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
185. AllyBama
4:07 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
myspace layouts, myspace codes, glitter graphics
Pat..may God bless you and your family on this Good Friday..
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20639
184. RedStickWatcher
2:23 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Who is the angel eating ice cream?
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 312
183. Patrap
2:19 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
5
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
182. CATAWIFE1
2:18 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket" width="215" height="320" alt="s" />
Member Since: September 13, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1739
181. Patrap
2:16 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
More From The Times-Picayune | Subscribe To The Times-Picayune
Storm forecasters lack tools, official says
Key satellite is living on borrowed time

Thursday, April 05, 2007
By Mark Schleifstein

Federal money for hurricane research is at least $700,000 below what it should be, and that could delay improvements in the tools used by hurricane forecasters to warn the public about the size and location of major storms, National Hurricane Center Director Bill Proenza warned Wednesday.

Speaking at the annual National Hurricane Conference, Proenza also warned that if a research satellite that's already two years past its expected life span fails, which he said could happen at any time, 48-hour forecasts of hurricane landfalls could be off by 10 percent and 72-hour forecasts could be off by 16 percent.

That could make it more difficult to evacuate coastal areas because the Hurricane Center would widen the geographic area along coastlines that receive advance warning of hurricanes, he said.






A replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite would take at least four years to shoot into space, if the $375 million to $400 million cost of the orb and its launch vehicle were available. But the money's not there, Proenza said.

The satellite provides surface wind speeds and directions used in computer models that predict hurricane storm paths for the National Hurricane Center. But the information also is used year-round by local National Weather Service meteorologists in writing marine forecasts, he said.

Active season expected

Proenza said a National Weather Service seasonal forecast of hurricane activity, which will be released in May, is likely to indicate a greater-than-normal number of hurricanes, similar to the prediction made Tuesday by Colorado State University climatologists Philip Klotzbach and Bill Gray.

"We know that El Nio (a warm water condition in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of the Americas) suppressed activity last year," Proenza said.

The warm water in the Pacific is believed to cause upper level westerly winds that create wind shear that blows the tops off of hurricane-forming clouds.

But this year, El Nio has disappeared and looks like it will be replaced by its opposite, cool-water condition, known as La Nia. The cooler water is believed to cause more easterly winds in upper levels of the atmosphere over areas of the Atlantic, which creates more favorable conditions for the formation of hurricanes. There still are some wild cards that could reduce hurricane activity this year, though, Klotzbach said in an interview Wednesday. The biggest one, he said is the potential that dusty, dry air blowing off the Sahara Desert in Africa will reduce the chance of storm formation in the far Atlantic. Just such a condition helped limit storm formation in 2006.

But information about the potential for the dust to be a factor won't be known for a few more weeks, Klotzbach said. That information will be included in his late May update of hurricane activity.

The estimate released by Klotzbach and Gray on Tuesday called for 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. Klotzbach said there's a 49 percent chance of a major hurricane -- a Category 3 or stronger storm -- hitting the Gulf Coast this year, well above the historical average of 30 percent.






Gray retirement

Gray also announced this year that Klotzbach, a graduate student, has replaced him as the lead author on their predictions. Klotzbach said he hopes to continue the forecasts after this year, depending on where he ends up working after completing work on his doctorate degree in meteorology.

Gray said Wednesday that his retirement is allowing him to take the lesser role in the forecasting process, and that he's financing his own work from his retirement benefits. The research is also underwritten by grants from the National Science Foundation and Lexington Insurance Co.

Attending this week's conference is a mixture of government, business and media meteorologists and a wide variety of emergency management officials.

The conference also addressed rebuilding and flood protection efforts after Katrina. Federal Gulf Coast rebuilding czar Donald Powell told the attendees that recovery efforts in Louisiana and Mississippi are a lot more successful than much of the nation understands.

He pointed to the progress the Army Corps of Engineers has made to rebuild breached sections of the levee system to greater strength than before Katrina as an example of how the area's safety has been improved.

"Is there more work to do?" he said. "Absolutely. This is a most complex engineering task, difficult, time consuming, complex. But this president is committed to making sure the levee system is stronger than it has ever been." Powell also hinted at a new program aimed at jump-starting the slow process of rebuilding homes and businesses in the area.


"One of the interesting pieces of data we discovered about New Orleans is that 57 percent of the people in the parish were renters before Katrina," he said. "Now, homeownership is one of the cornerstones of being an American. It's critically important we rebuild the city's rental stock to help the community come back, but in the long term, it's better for people to become homeowners."







So his office is negotiating with capital investment businesses about underwriting the construction of new homes that residents could first rent and then have their rental payments applied to the purchase price.

The initial proposal would represent a $100 million investment, he said.

Powell warned conference- goers, who are from all across the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii, that a major lesson to be learned from Katrina is that communities with the best chance of surviving a catastrophic event are those that are healthy before the event.

"I remember coming down here and looking into the eyes of people along the Gulf Coast and thinking about two words: one was hope and the other was trust," he said. "And the hope for a brighter tomorrow was not there.

"I remember taking that message back to Washington that we need to build hope down here," he said.

"You need to put yourself beyond defeat," Powell said. "Be sure that the condition of your community and all the vital quality-of-life issues are strong now.

"For as strong as a community is, if it is hit by a catastrophic event, the quicker it recovers," he said.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
180. RedStickWatcher
2:12 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
No, I'm wrong, the power was still on then.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 312
179. RedStickWatcher
2:11 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
I'm glad the power was out. I'm not sure I would have wanted to see what was taking aim on us.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 312
178. Patrap
2:09 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Super Enlarged MODIS Image of Hurricane Katrina...August 28th 2005. Click to enlarge . Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
177. Patrap
2:07 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Nice to see you redstickwatcher.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
176. RedStickWatcher
2:04 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Hey Patrap!

Good to see you! We talked a lot post Katrina and last year! I'll be checking your site out this season. We have disaster training in Baton Rouge on the 23rd. I think I've had more hurricane emergency training than anything else! Let's hope we won't need it this year. However, if anything happens, I'll be at the Convention Center putting bracelets on people and scanning them on evacuation transportation.

Later,
Melody
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 312
175. Frozencanuck
1:54 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Courtesy of SparkleTags.com
Courtesy of SparkleTags.com
Member Since: December 8, 2006 Posts: 42 Comments: 4738
174. Patrap
1:35 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
The new models sound interesting.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
173. Patrap
1:33 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Intensity very important as we found out good and bad sandcrab. How was yas Thursday?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
172. sandcrab39565
1:27 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
New products from NHC are intensity graphics and 2 new models that are going to be used.
Member Since: June 25, 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
170. Patrap
1:15 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
310 PM CDT Thursday Apr 5 2007


Short term...


A ridge of surface high pressure will build into the Southern
Plains/lower Mississippi Valley over the next few days with
northwest flow continuing aloft. Strong winds will continue over
the coastal waters through tomorrow morning.


Long term...


The main concern will be the precipitation this weekend. Saturday morning
a shortwave will be moving eastward from northern Mexico as a
trough moves south across the plains states/Mississippi
Valley...wrapping around the upper low over the northeastern
states. Precipitation should be developing across the Southern Plains.
Then by Saturday night the shortwave over Texas will be moving
eastward...just ahead of the trough over the Central Plains/mid-
Mississippi Valley. Precipitation will be spreading into Louisiana and
the adjacent coastal waters. Late Saturday night/early Sunday
morning could be interesting in our area. Surface temperatures could
fall to near or below freezing Sunday morning. Model soundings
have much of the atmosphere below freezing at 06z and 12z...with
a slight rise above freezing between 750-825hpa and again below
about 950hpa toward southwest Mississippi. This would lead to a
chance for sleet in the area. However...confidence is not high yet
that the atmospheric column will cool that far..
.surface temperatures
will fall below freezing...and there will be ample moisture to
precipitate that far north of the surface low/trough over the
Gulf. For now the forecast is light rain with temperatures falling to
just above freezing across southwest/south-central Mississippi
and east-central Louisiana. Winds should also be strong with this
system...leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions again Friday
night through early Monday
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
169. Patrap
1:04 AM GMT on April 06, 2007
Have good evening mermaidlaw.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
168. mermaidlaw
11:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
{{{PAT AND FAMILY}}} I hope you have a wonderful night!

If you have time, please throw me a tune on my blog. i love to listen, before I have to leave for the night, to take care of hubby!! Thanks buddy, for all that you do!!!
Member Since: July 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 8822
167. hurricane23
10:32 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
Posted By: Patrap at 1:54 PM EDT on April 05, 2007.

Dr.Avila Lixion of the NHC gave a great interview with a Local Met here at Noon. He talked about the Tropical Models as a whole and how each one has its own pros and cons.He also talked about the superensemble and how the UKmet and the Europeans are coming along with their research too. Hes a lead forecaster for the NHC. A master of the models if you will.


A master of the models if you will indeed avila is one of my favorite forcasters at the NHC and ive actually had the pleasure of meeting him on several occasions here in miami at the NHC.His experience goes back to his days in cuba when it all started for him.He's great and loves doing what he does with great pleasure.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13843
166. Patrap
9:56 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
Dan Baum "New Orleans Journal" newyorker.com April 5, 2007
DB

On Dauphine Street, a block down from our house, is the Bargain Center, a kind of coperative of seven junk dealers and one of Bywaters most beloved institutions. On a typical day, I found this: Bakelite radios, multicolored clay figurines from Mexico, empty Nehi bottles, thousands of orphaned drinking glasses, broken and unbroken furniture of no particular distinction, a rubber stamp that said SILBERNAGEL, one water ski, a cookie jar shaped like the Liberty Bell, rotary telephones, an electric sign from the House of DeCor, Inc. (Home of Maison de Cor greeting cards), of 526 Bourbon Street, a nineteen-sixties-vintage beauty-shop hair dryer that looked as if it had been made by Pratt & Whitney, a bowl of dismembered-ceramic-doll parts, and rack after rack of gaudy used clothing suitable for the many costume occasions on the Bywater calendar.


I needed a money clip. Carrying my leather wallet in a climate of crime seemed unwise, and I wanted to pare down to a drivers license, one credit card, a slip telling the morgue attendant how to reach Margaret, and just enough cash to satisfy a mugger. One of the Bargain Centers dealers, a slender man with elegant manners and waist-length dreads, who asked to be identified only as Wesley, waved me toward a punchbowl filled with junk and told me to try my luck. I rooted through broken brooches, busted bracelets, battered buttonsBywater bling-blingand, at the bottom, found exactly what I was looking for. It was made of brass, or brass-coated tin, and had the weightlessness of the truly worthless. Something was etched on its face. I scraped away some grime with my thumbnail and held it to the light: DB.


I carried it up to Wesley. Two dollars, he said.


But it has my initials on it, I said. A million to one! (Six hundred and seventy-six to one, actually.)


O.K., he said. Three dollars. Its personalized.


But its also karmic, I said. He considered that a moment. Youre right, he said. One dollar.


For days, I told this story to every stranger within earshot whenever I had occasion to take the clip from my pocket. Heres another reason I love New Orleans: not a single one of those strangers said, Who cares? or failed to be delighted by my story. This city has always had a warm relationship with the spooky. And these days everybody loves a good omen
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
164. Patrap
8:53 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
The Saints are Coming..a redux
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
163. Patrap
8:22 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
Nice Choice rand..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
162. Patrap
8:21 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
sandcrab,..Jackson Square April 2nd 20076
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
159. Patrap
8:15 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
aquak9 Standing in Jackson Square Dec 2nd 06. WUBA powa..3
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158. Patrap
8:04 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
5
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
157. Patrap
8:03 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
A Special Thanks to the Wunderground for all they did then..and continue to do for the Gulf Coast Region.5
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130818
156. MisterPerfect
8:01 PM GMT on April 05, 2007
And drink a hurricane while you're there!
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20140

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Personal Weather Stations

Uptown
New Orleans, LA
Elevation: 20 ft
Temperature: 35.3 °F
Dew Point: 26.6 °F
Humidity: 69%
Wind: 9.8 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 14.8 mph
Updated: 8:22 AM CST on March 06, 2015

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