Sat 091011

By: OrangeRoses , 4:03 PM GMT on September 10, 2011

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NWS and WU Best Forecast Comparison Sat 9/10- Fri 9/16


National Weather Service Forecast

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. North wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. North wind around 5 mph.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. North wind around 5 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 94. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 63.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 94.
Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88.
Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84.


Weather Underground Best Forecast
Descriptive Forecast

Saturday
Partly cloudy. High of 91°F. Winds from the WNW at 5 mph.
Saturday Night
Clear. Low of 55°F. Winds from the North at 5 mph.

Sunday
Partly cloudy. High of 88°F. Winds from the NNW at 5 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 55°F. Winds from the North at 5 mph.

Monday
Clear in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 99°F. Winds from the SSW at 5 mph.
Monday Night
Clear. Low of 61°F. Winds from the SSE at 5 mph.

Tuesday
Clear. High of 104°F. Unseasonably warm. Winds from the South at 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 72°F. Winds from the SW at 5 mph.

Wednesday
Partly cloudy. High of 104°F. Unseasonably warm. Winds from the West at 5 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 70°F. Light winds mph.

Thursday
Partly cloudy. High of 91°F. Winds from the South at 5 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 63°F. Winds from the East at 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Friday
Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 88°F. Winds from the East at 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Friday Night Clear. Low of 57°F. Winds from the East at 10 mph.

I will try to do a nextday update for each day with the actual measured data from two local sources; and assign points for the closest forecast of Temps High&Low, Sky Conditions, Wind&Direction,and Rain variables. This should become a contest of sorts to see whose advanced forecast wins the most points for the Sat- Friday Week. (No points given if both forecasts are correct for a variable, or it does not apply.)

............Temp H.........L .............. Sky.......... Wind Speed/Direction------ Totals

9/10 Sat H:WU 90° L:NWS 61° sky:WU Wind speed/dir:NWS ... WU 2 - NWS 3
9/11 Sun H:NWS 95° L:WU 57° sky:NWS Wind dir:WU .............. WU 2 - NWS 2
9/12 Mon H:WU 99° L:NWS 65° sky:WU Wind speed/dir:N/A .... WU 2 - NWS 1

After 3 days we have a tie: WU 6 - NWS 6

9/13 Tue H:WU 104° L:WU 72° Rain:N/A ....................................... WU 2
9/14 Wed H:NWS 95° L:NWS 62° Rain:NWS 0.03 in. .............................. NWS 3
overnight low includes next day before sunrise

9/15 Thur H:NWS 72° L:NWS 59° Rain:NWS 0.02 in. .............................. NWS 3
Both forecasted rain. NWS forecasted day and night correctly. WU only in the evening.

9/15 Fri ... H:NWS 72° L:WU 57° sky:WU Rain:WU 0.03 in. ........ WU 3 - NWS 1


Accumulated Points for the past 7 Days

WU 11 NWS 13


National Weather Service is the winner in this fair comparison.
Both forecasts were much less accurate after 4 days.

NWS omits Wind Speed and Direction for the remainder of the forecast days, SOOOoooo...to be fair, Wind variables will not apply starting Tuesday, but Sky Conditions and Rain-both forecasts show rain chances- may balance everything.

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