OrangeRoses's WunderBlog

Sat 112611

By: OrangeRoses, 7:09 PM GMT on November 26, 2011

This Real Time GOES 13 nice Color Satellite photo of the Eastern United States now changes every 30 minutes, according to NOAA

Download full size 1920 x 1200 pixels from noaa.gov (2.2 MB)

It's going to be cold Sunday night and even colder early Monday morning.








Overnight Sunday and Monday Morning Temperature & Wind Chill (apparent temperature) Report


10:30 PM 11/27 Wind Chill at or Below 32° all night
11:30 PM 11/27 Freezing 32°
4:30 AM 11/28 29°
7:00 AM 11/28 25° wind chill 20°
7:44 AM 11/28 28° wind chill 28°

Updated: 1:49 PM GMT on November 28, 2011

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F 112511

By: OrangeRoses, 12:58 AM GMT on November 26, 2011

Rain is forecast here tonight and on Saturday. The regional radar image shows where the rain is right now.



Probability of Precipitation


50% starting at 9 PM all night Friday Nov. 25
100% 9 AM - 6 PM all day Saturday Nov 26




animate | stop




It has already rained 0.3 inches in 30 minutes, from 6:30 AM - 7 AM Saturday.

Φ

Updated: 1:24 PM GMT on November 26, 2011

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W112311

By: OrangeRoses, 1:51 PM GMT on November 23, 2011

Wishing Everyone a Happy Thanksgiving





Be careful traveling today and throughout the weekend.

I often wonder how many people read this blog, hence the greeting above takes on significance in the knowing...

Thanksgiving

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Sat 111911

By: OrangeRoses, 3:57 PM GMT on November 19, 2011



The Front Maps above may change every 3 hours, which should line up with the text below.


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport, LA
311 am CST Sat Nov 19 2011

A lot of things happening the next several days as the pattern
will become a little more active across the central part of the
US. A strong surface ridge of high pressure will continue to shift
east out over the Atlantic meanwhile a leeside low developing
across Kansas by Saturday morning will aid in tightening the
pressure gradient across the region...especially in East Texas
where a lake Wind Advisory will be in effect today for winds 15 to
25 gusting near 30 at times. Along with the strong south
winds...moisture will be on the increase as will clouds already
noted on infrared satellite this am. Believe we may have seen the last of
the sun for a few days as moisture will continue to stream north
ahead of a developing upper trough which is forecast to remain
across the western states for a few days ejecting pieces of energy out
of the trough on Sunday and Monday before the main low kicks out
Monday night and Tuesday.


»During the day Sunday...model consensus is to sag a frontal
boundary down to about the i30 corridor. One piece of energy is
set to eject out of the main trough during the day Sunday and
trigger showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front.
Storm Prediction Center has placed northwestern areas basically along i30 in a slight
risk as models agree that both wind shear and instability will
support organized storms. In fact...GFS deep layer shear values
running 50-55 kts and surface based cape maxing out 1000-1500 j/kg
during the afternoon hours on Sunday would be more than enough to
support a severe threat. 0-1 km helicty values are high enough to
support an isolated tornado threat along with a damaging wind
threat primarily late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. Model
soundings indicate that areas south and east of i30 will primarily
remain capped at about 800 mb with cin values running -80 to -120
j/kg and not enough of a shortwave moving in to erode the cap.
Cant rule out an isolated storm due to an outflow boundary...but coverage
should be a lot less.


Expect storm coverage and intensity to increase during the day
Monday as the main shortwave trough approaches and the frontal
boundary remains stalled across the i30 corridor. Models generally
agree on the development of a surface low along the front across
North Texas and race it northeastward Monday evening. As a
result...low level shear values increase significantly along and
ahead of the low track...which when combined with moderate
instability will again produce the threat of organized severe
storms...especially near the stalled front. 0-1 km helicity values
are higher Monday afternoon and evening as compared to Sunday as
is deep layer shear...so

»expect a greater chance of severe storms
with more coverage on Monday including damaging winds and tornadoes. Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight risk across all of northeast Texas north of
i20...southwest Arkansas...and southeast OK for Monday and Monday
night. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) also indicate that rainfall totals
through Tuesday am could approach 4-6 inches in the i30 corridor near the front.
Exact placement of the heavier rain will be determined by the frontal location.


Rain may be ongoing along and just behind the front early on
Tuesday across the eastern half of the region as the main energy
lifts northeast. European model (ecmwf) and GFS are remarkably similar in timing of
the trough and surface front passing through the region early on
Tuesday. Clouds should linger on Tuesday and begin to clear out
overnight into Wednesday am.


Nice weather and cooler temperatures in store for the big travel
day Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day and another potentially big
weather maker moves in late on Friday into Saturday next weekend.







Rain Update Sunday - Monday Nov. 20-21

The forecasted rain did not occur. Thunderstorms with probability cones pointed directly at McCurtain county seemed like illusions, for it rained 1/100th of an inch from 6:30 PM last night to 5:30 PM this morning. Then, from 5:30 - 6:30 AM 0.16 inches - sixteen times as much as yesterday!

It finally did rain here Monday night, with powerful storms lasting hours. The rain total was 1.1 inches, falling from 8:40 PM until 1 AM Tuesday.

My internet connection shut down at 8:40 PM, just as the severe thunderstorm began. TV weatherman reported a 69 mph gust in Idabel and a local trained spotter measured 70 mph, plus multiple lightning strikes for 90 minutes which may have contributed to broken connectivity.

Updated: 9:27 PM GMT on November 22, 2011

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Tu 111511

By: OrangeRoses, 3:18 AM GMT on November 16, 2011

We had at least 1.54 inches of rain today in 8 hours, starting at 2:30 AM, lasting until 10:30 AM November 15, 2011. More rain occurred later which Mesonet did not measure for some reason.

9 PM Tuesday November 15 » NWS Just released a Flood Advisory for McCurtain County, so we did have more rain than listed above. Mesonet's rain gauge probably stopped and will lag until tomorrow morning.


WU Tri-Hourly BestForecast for Wednesday
For you Thanksgiving shoppers the link above also includes the next 7 days until next Wednesday November 23rd


Missing rain Updated totals/times
November 15 10:30 AM - Nov. 16 1:15 AM source Mesonet

0.75 inches 10:30 AM Nov 15 - 1:15 AM Nov 16

Total: 2.29 inches of rain in a 23 hour period

Current Monthly Rainfall Accumulation: 3.69 inches


Updated: 4:38 PM GMT on November 17, 2011

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Sun110611

By: OrangeRoses, 5:19 PM GMT on November 06, 2011

This Advanced Discussion of Weather Sunday-Tuesday contains terms not many understand unless she learns the vocabulary and gets used to meteorology. Still I thought it so well done, with precision, it is now posted in its entirety. A comprehensive National Weather Service Glossary is available should you want to lookup definitions. (opens in new window/tab)


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
435 am CST sun Nov 6 2011

Discussion...
low level moisture advection is underway this morning...with an
extensive cumulus field in place across much of the region...along a
θ Theta-E ridge that continues to spread NE towards the MS river. This
is beneath a SW flow aloft...beneath the initial ejecting shortwave
over the northern and Central Plains. Shallow isentropic lift is also
underway within the Theta-E ridge as well...with a few sprinkles noted
across the shv metropolitan area in the last few minutes per the upper air
shift driving in. Short term forecasts maintain the strongest insentropic
forcing along the 290-295k surfaces across East Texas/southeast OK/extreme SW
Arkansas...which may result in isolated -shra today...especially in vc of a
northward moving warm front...which was analyzed across south-southeast Texas...per the 09z
surface analysis. This front should lift into southern OK/western Arkansas this
afternoon...although ceilings should persist S of the front within the
Theta-E ridge...which should maintain temperatures from exceeding the middle
70s.


SW flow aloft will continue for the next couple of days...before the
next closed low over northern California this morning...begins to carve a deep
trough across the Great Basin tonight through Monday morning. The
short term forecasts agree that the trough will traverse The Four Corners
region Monday evening...before emerging east of The Rockies Tuesday
morning. The models begin to diverge with the initial shortwave
ejecting NE ahead of the trough Monday afternoon...and also the
primary NE trough ejection across the Southern Plains Tuesday. The 00z
NAM is the slowest solution...with the GFS more consistent with
earlier runs ejecting the primary trough across the Southern Plains Tuesday
afternoon/evening...along and ahead of the attendant cold front. The
00z European model (ecmwf) and Canadian runs favor a slightly less progressive solution
than the GFS...and have used this blend in the forecast.


Initial shortwave ejections across North Texas/eastern OK should begin later this
afternoon near/just north of the returning warm front...with widely scattered
convection increasing northwest of the I-30 corridor by late afternoon/early
evening. The short term forecasts agree on scattered/numerous convection
developing across North Texas/much of OK Monday...especially in vc of a
sharpening inverted surface trough that will develop from the Texas Panhandle
into western OK/scntrl Kansas ahead of a stronger shortwave ejecting NE ahead
of The Four Corners trough. Warm advection rain showers may increase across East
Texas Monday afternoon beneath the dirty SW flow aloft...especially as a
40-50kt srly low level jet develops ahead of a developing surface low along the
inverted surface trough/developing cold front. This will only enhance more
organized convection across OK/west-central Texas...which will begin to spread
east into southeast OK/extreme NE Texas Monday night and the primary trough begins
to eject NE into the Texas/OK panhandles. Precipitable water/S are expected to increase
to near/in excess of 1.5 inches...which would yield some impressive
rainfall totals as this convection spreads east across the region
Tuesday/Tuesday evening.


There still remains some uncertainty as to the extent of instability
that will exist Tuesday ahead of the trough. The short term forecasts
favor the better instability /sbcapes 1200-1500+ j/kg/ across ecntrl
Texas/central and southern la Tuesday...with the best overall forcing with the
trough farther north of the I-20 corridor. However...speed and directional
shear will be more than adequate in vc of the approaching cold front
to support a well-developed area of convection...which could yield the
potential for isolated severe thunderstorms...especially if this
convection can tap the higher instability. Regardless...the split
upper level jet will yield widespread beneficial rainfall across much
of the region...with preliminary quantitative precipitation forecast of 1-1.5 inches areawide.


The convection should diminish from west to east Tuesday night...with
cooler/drier air filtering southeast behind the front. The colder air will
deepen by Thursday as the next longwave trough progresses southeast across
the nation/S midsection. Northwest flow aloft will ensue through at least
week/S end...before it possibly flattens for the weekend...per the
GFS. For now...will maintain slight chance probability of precipitation for late next weekend
should the GFS solution of developing SW flow aloft once again
verify...sending a series of weak shortwaves east-northeast across the Southern
Plains.

Interactive 3-Day Short Range Forecasts from the NWS (opens in new window/tab)

Updated: 6:26 PM GMT on November 06, 2011

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