OrangeRoses's WunderBlog

Th 042811

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 1:07 PM GMT on April 28, 2011

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
350 am CDT Thursday Apr 28 2011

a day without convective watches...warnings...or even lake wind
advisories feels a little unusual...as does temperatures this
morning in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Needless to say...beautiful
weather will dominate the area for the next couple days to help
with cleanup efforts after a tough two days of storm damage.

07z [2 AM Thursday] surface analysis shows strong ridging from The Rockies into north
central Texas and this will continue to build into the region
during the day. The ridge quickly shifts east of the region
tonight with a south wind returning tonight across our western
zones. Cyclogenesis in the Lee of The Rockies deepens very
rapidly on Friday and given the strong ridging to our east...
you guessed it...another windy day across the region...mainly
across our western zones where lake wind advisories may be
needed. Temperatures should rebound quickly as well given the
strong southerly flow. Low level moisture return should not
commence until Friday night with a good cumulus field likely moving
back to the north across central into eastern Texas by sunrise
Saturday morning.

Very windy areawide for Saturday as a strong cold front begins
to push into the Southern Plains. Vigorous southwest flow aloft
and energy diving into The Rockies as late as Saturday night
should allow the front to stall northwest of the region through
Saturday night. Will need to watch for elevated convection across
our northwest zones Saturday night as 850mb thetae ridging in this
vicinity along with steep middle level lapse rates could result in a
few elevated hail producing thunderstorms.

At this time...Sunday/Sunday night appears like the period where we will
be under the influence of strong to severe thunderstorms across
the entire four state region. There is still timing discrepancies
with the medium range forecasts with the ejection of the next upper
level trough into the plains but quantitative precipitation forecast output suggests quite an
active period will develop Sunday through Sunday night. Have
followed the CMC/GFS closely for the weekend into early next week
with a slower trough ejection and rain chances into early next
week.

I think this is a good forecast and general enough for most people to understand.. Enjoy the next few days into the weekend.

Saturday - Monday Update April 30 through May 2 2011
Now the weekend is here with much more rain expected tonight through Monday evening: 4-6 inches!

Track the storms' movement on these two frontal radar maps.
The lower map with blue triangles is the cold front weathermaker for SE Oklahoma. The stationary front(red & blue) will stall over SE Oklahoma on Sunday and rain, rain, rain.

Blue fronts are cold fronts, red fronts are warm fronts, alternating red and blue fronts are stationary fronts, and purple fronts are occluded fronts. Front positions are updated every 3 hours.

THE CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAINS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF AN EL DORADO ARKANSAS AND LINDEN to PITTSBURG TEXAS LINE.

Source

Hazardous Weather

The View Map link below will show a map of the locations named above where the rain will be heavy.

View Map from Bing Get Directions View Bird's Eye

Just Added Sat. Last Day of April (30th) 8:20 PM

• Tornado Watch until 2 AM Sunday

• Flash Flood Watch from now until Monday Morning May 2nd

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 3 PM Sunday

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Updated: 6:17 PM GMT on May 12, 2011

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W 042711

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 9:00 PM GMT on April 27, 2011

Today was much cooler than yesterday — 5-10° — yet the cloud coverage was only slightly less because the (rare lately)sun showed for 20 minutes or so. I walked outside for awhile and thought it was going to pour, but just a tiny bit of condensation drops from the fast wind, for 3 minutes, greeted me. I like it when Nature is Gentle with me, and I'm still dry. Tonight colder.
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F 042211

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 1:45 PM GMT on April 22, 2011

11 days without an update, I know. The dry spring ended with significant rainfall and severe thunderstorm hailstones as well. It was a long long time ago when 3-5" hail pounded the region of extreme SE Oklahoma. All reports were generally official, although one from local media(meaning a person called a local radio station) could be under scrutiny.

Daily Rainfall Amounts

Tue 4/19 0.56
Wed 4/20 0.51
Thu 4/21 0.82
Fri 4/22 0.10

Total 1.99 in.

Monday April 25 Rain Update

4 inches of rain fell from 9PM on 4/24 until 5:30 PM today 4/25

We have flash flooding & water ponding now, had a Tornado Warning Siren this afternoon, and intense nonstop lightning after midnight all night long until 6 AM

Source Mesonet.Org

Updated: 11:51 PM GMT on April 26, 2011

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M 041111

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 2:16 PM GMT on April 11, 2011

A few thunderstorms covered the area in the middle of the night bringing needed rain with little runoff / flooding.

The rain began at 3:30 AM. Within 30 minutes 0.5 inches had accumulated, along with the thunder and lightning. After 4 AM the rate of precipitation lessened but remained steady for the next 2¼ hours(6:15 AM) with another 0.2 inches. Then next, a short harder rain(0.16 inches) for the next 45 minutes until 7 AM, at which time rainfall ended.
Rain Total: 0.86 inches | 2.1844 centimeters
Source Mesonet.org

The only other reliable data source for this area is the McCurtain County Airport, with a rain total of 0.6 inches(approx). The airport is about 1 mile northwest of Idabel and the mesonet site is about 5 miles southwest of Idabel, more likely in the center of the thunderstorms.

It was almost like the thunderstorm came and went like a thief in the night, leaving before the first morning sun rays obscured by clouds began.

Updated: 2:17 PM GMT on April 11, 2011

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Tue 040511

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 1:36 PM GMT on April 05, 2011

We had some more rain early Monday morning yesterday. There were Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Watches but nothing materialized here. However, those powerful storms bypassed us 20+ miles Southeast in Arkansas where there was some large hail and wind damage, EF2 tornadoes there and much farther south in Louisiana also.

0.37 inches of rain total from 2:52AM - 8:10 AM April 4, 2011

The number at the far right of the data table is inches of rain in 20 minute intervals.

04 08:32 NW 18 G 30 10.00 Thunderstorm BKN009 OVC031 59 54 82% 29.64 NA 0.01
04 08:12 N 10 7.00 Thunderstorm SCT009 SCT029 OVC110 63 61 94% 29.53 NA 0.01
04 07:52 N 10 5.00 Thunderstorm SCT038 SCT055 OVC100 64 63 94% 29.57 NA 0.12
04 07:32 S 5 3.00 Thunderstorm in Vicinity SCT024 BKN038 OVC046 68 66 94% 29.62 NA 0.10
04 07:12 W 7 3.00 Thunderstorm SCT015 BKN026 OVC050 70 66 88% 29.65 NA 0.06
04 06:52 W 8 4.00 Overcast SCT029 SCT070 OVC110 70 66 88% 29.67 NA 0.11
04 06:32 SW 13 5.00 Overcast SCT030 SCT050 OVC120 70 66 88% 29.63 NA 0.10
04 06:12 SW 8 G 25 5.00 Thunderstorm BKN030 BKN040 OVC110 70 64 83% 29.60 NA 0.09
04 05:52 SW 20 7.00 Thunderstorm BKN032 BKN040 OVC050 73 64 74% 29.59 NA
04 05:32 SW 21 G 24 7.00 Overcast and Breezy BKN030 BKN040 OVC055 73 64 74% 29.60 NA
04 05:12 SW 14 G 18 7.00 Overcast OVC030 73 64 74% 29.61 NA
04 04:52 SW 14 7.00 Overcast OVC032 73 64 74% 29.59 NA
04 04:32 S 15 G 24 7.00 Overcast BKN032 OVC037 73 63 69% 29.57 NA
04 04:12 SW 14 G 22 7.00 Overcast BKN030 OVC035 73 64 74% 29.58 NA
04 03:52 S 18 G 24 7.00 Overcast OVC031 72 64 78% 29.58 NA 0.01
04 03:32 SW 15 7.00 Overcast BKN033 OVC038 72 64 78% 29.60 NA 0.01
04 03:12 S 16 G 25 7.00 Thunderstorm in Vicinity BKN033 OVC040 73 63 69% 29.58 NA

source: McCurtain County Airport Past 72 hours Weather History NOAA.GOV

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Updated: 1:57 PM GMT on April 05, 2011

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