OrangeRoses's WunderBlog

Sun 013011

By: OrangeRoses, 5:30 PM GMT on January 30, 2011

There is rain but it is south of here.

More interesting is the Tuesday afternoon ( Feb 1 ) probability of some snow and/or freezing rain, along with a rapid drop in temperatures at the same time.

For today and the next few days these weather maps should be enough to see what the oft' misunderstood weather discussions insinuate.









Tuesday Feb 1 Update




Wind Chill Advisory, Winter Weather Advisory, Freeze Warning, Lake Wind Advisory all in effect for today. We get it all or nothing, it seems lately.


Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening. Snow accumulations of one to two inches will be observed in the advisory areas generally north of I-30. (i.e. here)

Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to noon CST Wednesday Feb 2. Increased winds will also allow wind chill values to fall below 10 degrees. Also, the temperature fell from 55° at midnight to 28° now at 8:30 AM. The windchill went from 44 - 14° starting at 1 AM until now.

Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 am this morning to 6 am CST Wednesday. Sustained winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts approaching 40 mph.


Freeze warning in effect from 10 PM this evening Feb 1 to 9 am CST Wednesday Feb 2.

10:05 AM Feb 1 Update

The windchill dropped to 9° with 25 mph wind speeds.
The very cold rain ended and radar shows no new storms approaching. So...we can easily believe this NWS update:


Lows near 15
Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph
Gusts up to 35 mph decreasing to 25 mph after midnight
Wind chill readings 2 below to 8 above zero.



Φ

Updated: 2:55 PM GMT on February 02, 2011

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Th 012011

By: OrangeRoses, 1:45 AM GMT on January 21, 2011

The Winter Weather Advisory failed to materialize and was cancelled. The Lake Wind Advisory was also cancelled, although wind gusts of 25-30 mph occured often between 9 AM and 3 PM earlier today.








Φ

Updated: 5:30 PM GMT on January 30, 2011

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Sun 011611

By: OrangeRoses, 6:35 PM GMT on January 16, 2011

Looks like most of the rain avoided my little area of SE OK. In 6½ hours 0.3 inches of cool precip. The radar shows the heavier rain at least 100 miles South in Texas moving slowly from the SW to the NE.

Updated: 1:21 PM GMT on January 30, 2011

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011111 (January 11, 2011)

By: OrangeRoses, 9:28 PM GMT on January 11, 2011

Hard Freeze Warning Statement as of 12:11 PM CST on January 11, 2011




A hard freeze warning remains in effect from 9 PM this evening to
9 am CST Wednesday.

* An Arctic airmass centered across the central and Southern
Plains today will move south and east into the lower
Mississippi Valley tonight. Where a decent snow pack resides across McCurtain County in southeast Oklahoma temperatures will likely range from near 10 degrees into the lower teens overnight. A few locations could even see single digit temperatures.


 


Princess Glaciera


The temperature fell 10 degrees overnight and the warning listed above is very easy to believe since right now it's about 0° in Northern Kansas and that is the cold air listed above Princess Glaciera which will be moving here.

Next Day Quick Update

At 8:00 AM Jan 12, 2011 temp is 15° F and windchil 7°.

Updated: 2:11 PM GMT on January 12, 2011

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Sun 070911

By: OrangeRoses, 3:26 PM GMT on January 09, 2011

It is cold enough at ground level for some kind of snow but so far, at 9:15AM Sunday Jan 9th, no snow or rain or sleet or anything! The Wundermap shows all purple, meaning light, mixed precipitation(frozen and liquid).

Let's review the slight changes in the forecast over the past 24 hours:

Statement as of 3:25 PM CST on January 08, 2011(yesterday):

Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 am Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night
(relevant excerpt)
* Snow and sleet should begin across northeast Texas and southeast
Oklahoma early Sunday morning... and spread into southern
Arkansas by late morning or early Sunday afternoon. The winter
precipitation will begin to taper off from west to east Sunday
night.
* Four to eight inches of snow accumulation is expected across
southeast Oklahoma... northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas. In
some areas the snow may fall in combination with 1 to 2 inches
of sleet.
 
Shreveport Weather Discussion 347 am CST Sun Jan 9, 2011
If there has been a trend over the last 24 hours...it has been for
a slight transition north for the best snowfall accumulations
through this evening and less amounts along the I-20 corridor of
northeast Texas and northern Louisiana. This is depicted in the
models as well as hpc's internal snow graphics. Still looking like
we could see a 4-6" snow along a 30 mile wide area of the Interstate
30 corridor of northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas with lesser
amounts 2-4" along the I-20 corridor of NE Texas



Nowcast as of 8:56 am CST on January 9, 2011








Winter Storm Warning in effect until midnight tonight... areas of rain...mixed with sleet...is becoming more widespread across most of northern Louisiana...and portions of northeast Texas...north of Interstate 20. This precipitation will spread northward across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas...where most precipitation will occur in the form of freezing rain mixed with sleet. This precipitation will continue moving to the east at around 20 mph.



So When is it going to rain or snow or sleet or even frozen fog? The sky is completely overcast/dismal and once again the nonspecific forecast doubletalk only serves to prepare us for the likelihood of slippery road conditions(just as slippery as the forecast of a Winter Storm Warning, not a Watch). I ask once again, when? Do we wait all day and not go out or drive because of this imminent freeze threat? A timely update will be made whenever any of the above happens

10:08AM Fine frozen rain is falling now. So light you can barely hear or see it. I went outside to make sure. So, the forecast finally is correct. It may be due to a little bit of inflammatory rhetoric in this blog, not my lack of patience. The complexity of any natural geocentric process is affected by more than just scientific formulas and observations. Indeed, there are mysteries beyond our comprehension that exist in the here and now and in the Ultra Now!

1:08 PM
Just snowflakes now. They are tilted toward the East, showing a wind from the same direction. The ground is starting to get a painting of white, which shows subsurface cooling as well as the air temp.

4:42 PM
At least 4 inches of snow on the ground with light, fluffy, pretty snow falling steadily. Quiet too. What a blessing to not hear those motors, pipes & mufflers.

And so we shall have to wait, watch, see & make a slushy snowball!

Φ



It may be Princess Glaciera is back again

Princess Glaciera

Updated: 10:46 PM GMT on January 09, 2011

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F 010711

By: OrangeRoses, 3:03 PM GMT on January 07, 2011

SpecialWeatherStatement

Statement as of 5:06 AM CST on January 07, 2011



... Winter storm possible across the northern half of the four state
region this weekend...

A strong upper level storm system will approach the four state
region Saturday night into Sunday with winter precipitation
possible along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor of northeast
Texas and northern Louisiana... including southeast Oklahoma and
southern Arkansas. Precipitation will begin late Saturday afternoon
and evening as just rain in the west... but through evaporative
cooling... a mixture of rain... mixed with sleet and snow will be
possible late Saturday night. Sunday will be a cold and raw day
across the entire region. There should be enough cold air in place
for a sleet and snow mixture across southeast Oklahoma and
southern Arkansas... while further south near the Interstate 20
corridor of northeast Texas and northern Louisiana... a mixture of
rain... sleet and snow will all be possible. Precipitation should
turn into all snow across southern Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma
Sunday night while there will continue to be a mixture of sleet
and snow further south near Interstate 20 before the precipitation
tries to come to and end late Sunday night. Accumulating sleet and
snow will be possible with this winter storm this weekend...
especially across southeast Oklahoma and southern Arkansas. Snow
accumulations beginning late Saturday night... and continuing
through Sunday night... could total 2 to 4 inches with isolated
higher amounts across southeast Oklahoma and southern Arkansas.
Further south near the Interstate 20 corridor of northeast Texas
and northern Louisiana... slight accumulations of sleet and snow
will be possible through Sunday night.

Winter storm watches will likely be needed for at least the
northern portions of our region for late Saturday night through
Sunday night and this will likely be issued later this afternoon.

Uncertainty does exist as to just how far south winter precipitation
accumulation will be possible. Just a slight southward shift of this
storm system would result in higher sleet and snow accumulations...
further south along the Interstate 20 corridor. The progress of this
system will continue to be monitored over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Preparations for a winter storm... with accumulating sleet and or
snow... should be made for locations along and north of the Interstate
20 corridor by Saturday.

13








Winter Storm Watch

Statement as of 3:30 PM CST on January 07, 2011 Canceled



There are minor changes as of this morning Sat. Jan 8. 20111
1.

*Four to six inches of snow accumulation is expected across
southeast Oklahoma into southwest Arkansas. Further south into
northeast Texas and northern Louisiana... 2 to 4 inches of snow
will be possible... with isolated higher amounts possible north of
the Interstate 20 corridor of extreme northern Louisiana... and
this may fall after... or in combination with 1 to 2 inches of sleet.


 
2. Hazardous Weather Outlook (this explains how the Winter Storm will get here)

515 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011 

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS THE REGION.
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO CENTER TEXAS LINE...
WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN. FURTHER EAST...ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
A MIXTURE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET. FURTHER WEST
ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN...MIXED WITH SLEET.
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BEGIN AS SLEET...MIXED WITH SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE LATE TONIGHT THEREFORE...WHILE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION. PREPARATIONS FOR A WINTER STORM...WITH ACCUMULATING
SLEET AND OR SNOW...SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY
.


DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR
STATE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...THERE WILL
BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN...MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TRIES TO COME TO AN END LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SIGNIFICANT SLEET AND OR SNOW ACCUMULATION SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
(Some content edited/removed)


Statement as of 3:25 PM CST on January 08, 2011


... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 am Sunday to midnight
CST Sunday night...
The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect from 6 am
Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night. The Winter Storm Watch is no
longer in effect.

* Snow and sleet should begin across northeast Texas and southeast
Oklahoma early Sunday morning... and spread into southern
Arkansas by late morning or early Sunday afternoon. The winter
precipitation will begin to taper off from west to east Sunday
night.

* Four to eight inches of snow accumulation is expected across
southeast Oklahoma... northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas. In
some areas the snow may fall in combination with 1 to 2 inches
of sleet.

* Snow covered roadways will be possible across the watch
area... creating hazardous travel conditions Sunday through the
morning commute on Monday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight...
food... and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.






Curiously, today's short forecast is "Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s". And so we shall have to wait, watch, see & make a slushy snowball!

Φ

 

Updated: 11:46 PM GMT on January 08, 2011

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The sixth angel poured out her bowl on the great river Euphrates and its water was dried up to prepare the way for the Kings and Queens from the East

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