OrangeRoses's WunderBlog

Sat 091909

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 11:32 PM GMT on September 19, 2009

And they crawled out of the darkness...the skies were a beautiful blue this afternoon with sunshine not seen in over a week ( 'round these parts ). Daytime High about 80° F. Also, 'round here, the normal flooding that comes with heavy & frequent downpours did not happen.

The rain fell slow
Down on all the roofs of uncertainty
I thought of you
And the years and all the sadness
Fell away from me
And did you know...

*Update Nine days later*

Rain stopped finally over a week ago and it has taken 3-4 days for the humidity — of wetness evaporating — to lower into comfortable levels. 28% RH now. And sunny days too! Yesterday very hot( 90's F.); today barely 80° F. The trees show the results of slow & gentle rainfall over a 10 day period earlier this month with even more abundant greenery and fat green pecans bowing the branches.

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Updated: 8:31 PM GMT on September 28, 2009

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F 091109

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 9:31 PM GMT on September 11, 2009

Flash Flood Watch in effect from 1 am CDT Saturday through Sunday evening.

No rain here at this time, although the radar and short term data reveal "several hundredths of an inch possible".

This Watch is special because:

1. Normally some rain would have fallen over a period of time before a Flash Flood appears(sometimes never even if it is flooding !)
2. The NWS is ahead of the event before it happens— Quite interesting that we know this weekend will really rain hard( +2 inches | +5 centimeters ), clean the roads, saturate the water table below the surface, and generally keep it quieter.

We have had a very wet year.

Saturday Update
Still waiting for the flood flashers. It did rain 0.81 inches | 20 millimeters since the FFW was issued, but the forecast warning applies to most of the 4 State Area, not here. We have a different set of rules must be. There may be some hard rain tonight; yet the early morning discussion stated the storms would move NW out of Central Texas; but any thunderstorms on the SRX Radar Station shows Eastward T Storm movement from Arkansas, approximately 120 miles North of SE Oklahoma!

Tuesday Update 9 1 5

1.26in | 42.0mm Rain since the last update. This time I think the NWS in Shreveport looked North and West a little closer in their Flash Flood predictions. There are none issued here. If the expert forecasters ever wandered outside their dry offices to find some local data from anyone in this quirky weather area where I live, most local people would take the NWS more seriously. Generally, anyone can predict when it will rain but to do this hours in advance and be right more than 50% of the time means discarding your Rules of Weather, realizing that in certain places phenomena exist that you can't measure!

At 5:22 PM CDT the NWS reinstated a Flash Flood Watch for the entire County until Wednesday Evening 9 1 6. I am hoping they are wrong again. Enough rain has fallen in the past 4 days.

10:47 AM CDT on September 16, 2009 Another Extension of the FFW until Thursday morning 9 1 7. Maybe we will get a Flash Flood Warning too if it rains hard enough.

Notice the counter-clockwise movement around the Low Pressure system ? This is our rain maker.

2.4 in |61 mm rain today from the storm system above, starting around 5:30 AM with 14 hours of measurable precipitation.

Sept 17th Thur. Update

Guess what? The NWS extended the FFW again! This time until 4PM. I think they are now using a wait and see method, which is like most people do who do not have million dollar satellites and hundreds of newly updated Doppler Radar Stations scattered across the country at their fingertips. It is good the "Weathermen" went outside and realized it was still raining.

Starting before dawn today 0.71in | 18.0mm of rain blessed the land once again.

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Updated: 5:13 PM GMT on September 17, 2009

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Tu 090809

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 7:06 PM GMT on September 08, 2009

Seven Day Forecast

NWS Zone Forecast
OKZ077-090345-
MCCURTAIN-
319 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2009

TODAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

TONIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

$$

We do not see any 50 Percents above.

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Sat 090509

Posted by: OrangeRoses, 4:35 PM GMT on September 05, 2009

The NWS Forecast today shows a 50% chance of thunderstorms. Doesn't 50% mean it may have thunderstoms or may not have thunderstorms? And this can also mean "maybe" it will thunderstorm; maybe it will not. This is not good forecasting in my opinion, so I will make a major shift in the forecast by not saying maybe... ooops I said it!

There will be a 59% chance of thunderstorms all day today and throughout the evening hours and a 41% chance of no thunderstorms.

How about predicting it will rain (without thunderstorms)?? Nobody thought about that, so excited to get the job done by saying the Odds are 50-50. Either way is OK, apparently, unless I did not read the scientific discussion and the bare minumum WU forecast grid correctly.

Sunday 090709
Reporting one day later: There was a small baby thunderstorm coming from ESE late yesterday afternoon, which I first noticed inside as the outdoor light seemed to dim. No thunder, no lightning, just this dark grey cloud that seemed to be much longer than it was higher. WunderMap showed this event as a hail storm, direction heading due S, with 60% chance of hail, too! I like this when forecasters go out a limb and avoid the maybe of 50%. Even though the direction of baby α (alpha) was coming from the north, to the casual observer it seemed to roll in from the SE. Reason? It was actually slightly east of here, appearing SE from your POV; at the same moment the sun was shining brilliantly from the west in the clear blue sky with soft cotton cumulus puffs. I expected a rainbow! Any precipitation from this hail storm was nil and 30 minutes later I noticed the only storm all day and evening I had predicted (see above) was gone.