OrangeRoses's WunderBlog

W 032509

By: OrangeRoses, 4:30 PM GMT on March 25, 2009

We had rain yesterday

0.50in |12.7mm Local PWS Station
0.99in | 25.2mm Local Airport weather.gov

Sunny right now with thunderstorms forecasted this afternoon.

Thursday March 26,2009 Rainfall Update

Since the last posting above another 0.99in | 25.2mm Local Airport weather.gov bringing the 3 day total to ~ 2.0 in | 50 mm.

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Updated: 7:54 PM GMT on March 26, 2009

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Sun 032209

By: OrangeRoses, 4:20 PM GMT on March 22, 2009

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
300 PM CDT sun Mar 22 2009


Discussion...
strong thunderstorms possible on Tuesday followed by a wet week across the four state region.

Tonight through Monday night...southerly flow will continue
tonight with clouds on the increase. Low temperatures will drop to the upper 50s to near 60 areawide. On Monday winds will increase to near lake Wind Advisory criteria as the low level southerly jet Cranks up ahead of the next front. High temperatures in the upper 70s can be expected on Monday. Showers will increase in coverage on Monday night the front approaches the four state region.

Tuesday and Wednesday...GFS has been more aggressive in the latest 12z run in pushing the the front through the region early Tuesday evening as opposed to an overnight event. As for severity...at this time all forecasts are pointing toward a squall line event with possible bowing features. However...with marginal instability...a significant organized severe treat is not anticipated.


Local Satellite

Satellite Image updates with each visit to my blog.

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Updated: 9:49 PM GMT on March 22, 2009

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Sat 032109

By: OrangeRoses, 10:48 PM GMT on March 21, 2009

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
319 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2009

Discussion...
southerly flow will increase over the next several days ahead of the next frontal system prognosticated to bring strong storms across the region late Tuesday night.

Tonight...expect light southeast winds along with an increase in low level moisture across the four state region. A weak upper level disturbance downstream of the 500mb ridge will allow for light shower activity to move southward across southern Arkansas...mainly toward El Dorado and Prescott. Considering the atmosphere is still
relatively dry...not expecting much rainfall to reach the surface with this activity.

Sunday and Monday...the surface pressure gradient will increase..allowing for enhanced southerly winds each day. This will bring high temperatures to near 80 areawide. Clouds will also be on the increase as low level moisture returns.

Tuesday and Wednesday...GFS has been very consistent on bringing a front across the four state region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Expect light showers with isolated thunderstorms early Tuesday as instability increases. By sunset...the boundary is forecast to be entering East Texas with the main squall line moving across the region during the overnight hours. At this time...the day 4 Storm Prediction Center outlook is calling for a greater than 30% chance of severe weather associated with this line across most of the area.

Thursday and Friday...a series of disturbances are forecast to develop and slide across the northern Gulf Coast late in the week allowing for cloudy conditions along with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the forecast period.


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Updated: 10:51 PM GMT on March 21, 2009

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M 031609

By: OrangeRoses, 10:28 PM GMT on March 16, 2009

Mid morning the clouds were thinning, the sunlight was like a large lightbulb, and the temperature was much warmer, when finally right around Noon 17:00 GMT the sun began to shine unobscured for the first time in 2 weeks! A lovely day with light breezes and high temperature of 73.3 °F | 22.9 °C.

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Sat 031409

By: OrangeRoses, 4:14 PM GMT on March 14, 2009

The advanced scientific discussion updates depending on forecast changes and the older week long forecast vanishes, so I will post this one as a reference.

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Shreveport la
648 am CDT Sat Mar 14 2009


..a quick update to the forecast will be coming...


Discussion...
area radars show the precipitation /associated with the ejecting
shortwave trough/ continues to move toward the forecast area this
morning. Since the areal coverage of the precipitation was greater
than previously expected...I have updated the forecast to increase
rain probabilities /especially/ over my northwestern areas.


Isc grids have been sent and should be posted to the internet. An
updated suite of products will be issued prior to 7 am. /Butts/


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 317 am CDT Sat Mar 14 2009/


Short term /today through Monday night/...
after several days of dank weather conditions across the forecast
area...we might just have a change on the horizon.


Surface boundary stretches from Vermillion Bay into southwest
Alabama as of midnight. Broad southwesterly flow aloft...driven by
shortwave troughs to our west...has prohibited any significant
movement of this feature. The first shortwave trough will eject
today...finally pushing the front east into Alabama. That said...I
think we have probably seen the end to the widespread rainfall event
of the past several days.


Radars to our west continue to show scattered showers across North
Texas...probably associated with the first shortwave trough itself.
These showers should affect mainly northern parts of the forecast
area this morning as the upper trough ejects northeast. All that
said...I will keep some mention of rain in the forecast today based
upon last minute peeks of the radar. It looks like the greatest
odds of seeing any precipitation will be over northern and eastern
areas...with a shift toward my southeastern parishes this
afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts should average between a
tenth and quarter inch.


The first ejecting shortwave trough may bring enough drier air into
the boundary layer to keep Sunday dry across our corner of the
world. Moisture is forecast to start creeping northward by Sunday
afternoon as amplitude increases in the upper-level flow ahead of
the next shortwave trough. Borrowing a phrase from my esteemed
colleague...the second shortwave trough will finally grow legs and
start moving Sunday afternoon.


This will likely result in another shot of seeing precipitation from
Sunday afternoon through night. A warmup appears to be on tap
heading into Monday...as shortwave ridging replaces the troughiness
moving into Alabama.


Cloudiness will be a persistent forecast problem for this weekend.
While i'm not ruling out a few breaks in the clouds /especially
Sunday/...I have decided to keep at a great deal of cloud cover in
the forecast across the forecast area through just about the entire
weekend. Forecast high temperatures should remain on the cool
side...then begin to moderate Monday as the clouds start to break.


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
seems like the long term portion of the forecast will be relatively
quiet...especially in comparison with the last couple of days.


Dry and warm conditions should be experienced again Tuesday...as we
remain under the influence of shortwave ridging aloft and east to
southeast winds at the surface. The upper ridge axis is forecast to
shift east Wednesday...resulting in the return of a nearly zonal
flow upstairs and low-level Gulf moisture.


Another front should then inch its way toward our region late
Wednesday night...moving through the forecast area during the day
Thursday. There's not expected to be much in the way of upper-level
support to rapidly push the front through. As such...I expect the
front to gradually fall apart just south of our area...providing
only an isolated coverage of showers or storms at best.


Since there might be some lingering surface troughiness in place for
Friday...I plan to maintain a slight chance of showers with slightly
cooler temperatures. Right now...it looks like the best odds of
seeing precipitation will likely be across East Texas and central
Louisiana.

Stay connected Φ

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Tu 031009

By: OrangeRoses, 2:36 PM GMT on March 10, 2009



Map shows fronts, radar, High and Low pressure areas. The forecast includes rain, possible severe weather March 10th 0 - 6:00 UTC, with drastic temperature changes (-30° F.) behind the approaching cold front for the next several days. The map above updates as well at some time interval, but you must refresh this blog to view it.



Update 031109 Wednesday

Current Temp 39.5°F|4.2°C Falling overnight 11°F
24 hour Rain 0.62in | 1.58cm ( approx. Airport)
Local PWS: 0.31in | 7.9mm

Update 031209 Thursday
18 hour Rain total since last update 1.7 in. (airport)

Currently it is still raining.

Update 031309 Friday

Rain began again 4 hours ago. 0.32 in. so far.

Update 031409 Saturday:

0.41 More Rain since the last update 16 hours ago which brings us current as precipitation has ceased, finally!

4 Day Total Rain 2.43 in | 6.17 cm.




In the link below is a 3 day data table with hourly rain. add them up and you get the amount for the time period listed.

Go to the following link for all the data
Idabel Airport Observations Weather.gov

I will end these update entries unless significant amounts of rain continue throughout the day.

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Updated: 4:06 PM GMT on March 14, 2009

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Th 030509

By: OrangeRoses, 9:17 PM GMT on March 05, 2009

Temps reached 80.5°F|26.9°C climbing from an overnight low of 57.8°F|14.3°C in 14 hours. Local Airport wind data shows

Wind Speed 10 mph|16 km/h
Max Wind Speed 21 mph|33 km/h
Max Gust Speed 30 mph|48 km/h

as of this posting. Φ

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About OrangeRoses

The sixth angel poured out her bowl on the great river Euphrates and its water was dried up to prepare the way for the Kings and Queens from the East

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Haworth, OK
Elevation: 472 ft
Temperature: 34.6 °F
Dew Point: 32.8 °F
Humidity: 93%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 1:54 AM CDT on April 16, 2014

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