By The Numbers: 2010/09/22

By: Neapolitan , 12:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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  1. Today marks the one-month anniversary of the birth of Danielle. At the 11AM EDT TWO on August 22nd, the season TC count stood at 3-1-0, and ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) was an anemic 9.095. Since then, we've gone an astounding 9-5-5, and have gathered an additional 117.34 ACE units. That's an average of one named storm every 3.45 days, a major hurricane every 6.2 days, and 3.78 ACE units per day.

  2. With Lisa, we now have seen six September storms (and there's a likely-busy eight days left in the month). That means this year has seen more September action than any years since the current "active" period began in 1995 except for '98 and '00, which both birthed seven, and '02 and '07, which each saw eight. However, while it may not happen this year, it's interesting to note that of those four years that produced 30 named September storms among them, their attendant Octobers managed to only come up with six altogether. Even more interesting: the two years with eight-storm Septembers managed to only come up with one single paltry October storm between them. In other words, there seems to be--at least on the surface--an inverse relationship going: the more September storms a season has, the fewer October storms that follow. But again, with things as they are this year--particularly the as-yet untapped heat in the Caribbean--one senses that October probably won't be a similar bust this year.

  3. Today is the 31st day out of the last 32 with at least one active system (September 5th is the only exception). In that span, there have been 20 days with more than one storm going, and seven of those saw three active storms. In that same span have been six days with multiple hurricanes, including two with three hurricanes in action. We've also had, incredibly, multiple major hurricanes on two different days.

  4. Since our last update, both Julia and Igor have exited the stage. Here are their final numbers:

    IGOR
    ACE: 42.445 (33.7% of season total)
    HDP: 40.1925
    Highest Daily ACE: 6.51 ON 2010/09/13
    Initial TWO: 5PM EDT 2010/09/08
    Final Tropical TWO: 5PM EDT 2010/09/21
    TWOs as TS: 11 (66 HOURS / 2.75 days)
    TWOs as HU: 39 (234 HOURS / 9.75 days)
    TWOs as MH: 20 (120 HOURS / 5.0 days)
    Total TWOs: 50 (300 HOURS / 12.5 days)

    JULIA
    ACE: 14.1825 (11.5% of season total)
    HDP: 11.345
    Highest Daily ACE: 4.855 ON 2010/09/15
    Initial TWO: 11PM EDT 2010/09/12
    Final Tropical TWO: 5AM EDT 2010/09/20
    TWOs as TS: 15 (90 HOURS / 3.75 days)
    TWOs as HU: 15 (90 HOURS / 3.75 days)
    TWOs as MH: 4 (24 HOURS / 1.0 days)
    Total TWOs: 30 (180 HOURS / 7.5 days)

    Igor's ACE of 42.445 makes him the most energetic storm in the Atlantic since 2004's ACE-monster Hurricane Ivan. Igor's ACE surpassed both Hurricane Wilma--2005's most powerful storm--and 2007's Hurricane Dean. Igor ranks among the top 2% of all Atlantic storms for ACE. (For the record, the Atlantic ACE title still belongs to 1899's San Ciriaco Hurricane, which lasted 28 days and racked up a very impressive estimated ACE of 73.57.)

  5. Because of Igor and Julia's simultaneous stint as Category 4 storms, September 15th saw 11.22 ACE units amassed. That means that single day accounted for 11.5% of the year's total ACE up to that date. In fact, from September 13 through September 17, 45.6725 ACE units were gathered, or more than 39% of the year's total ACE in just that one five-day span.

  6. This season's ACE, which stands now at 126.435, is still almost 100 units shy of what was gathered in 1995 or 2004, and it's barely over half of what was accumulated in 2005. While it's not likely this season will catch any of those three years, it'll almost certainly meet or exceed most other years since 1995, including the "hyperactive" seasons of 1996, 1998, 1998, and 2003.


ACE by Year (1995-2010)

ACE Distribution by Day

ACE Seasonal Accumulation

Named Tropical Cyclones by Date

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--Jim Pettit (aka Neapolitan)

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2. nocaneindy
4:19 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Man more folks ought to find their way to your blog! Good stuff!
Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 515

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About Neapolitan

A solid but breezy look at tropical and other extreme weather from a mathematical point of view. People may lie, but the numbers never do!

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