Hurricane Sandy to impact the area Mon/Tue

By: NYCvort , 10:34 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

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SUN EVE UPDATE



Energy located near Tennessee and extending back into the midwest will phase with Sandy, causing the storm to hook back into the coast, likely making landfall somewhere over New Jersey late tomorrow.



This will put us in the front right quadrant, which contains strong damaging winds and life threatening storm surge near the coast.



Please take this storm seriously. If a mandatory evacuation has been ordered for your area, you need to do so now.







FRI NOON UPDATE
Hurricane Sandy expected to impact the area early next week

The GFS has jumped on board with the Euro, and Sandy is headed in our direction. The exact track of the storm is still uncertain; however, we will experience significant impacts regardless. We can see the current ensemble spread from the ECMWF and GFS models on the images below from Weather Online UK:



So there is reasonable agreement between the ensembles of both models of a track taking Sandy to a landfall somewhere between Delmarva and Long Island.

This will bring with it sustained winds of tropical storm force, upwards of 5 inches of rain, and the possibility of significant coastal flooding.

Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts and check back here for updates.

- NYCvort



ORIGINAL DISCUSSION
Potential future impacts of Tropical Storm Sandy

I haven’t posted in a really long time, but I think the potential that we have for a significant coastal storm next week is reason enough for me to return.

It all has to do with what happens to Tropical Storm Sandy, which just formed in the southwest Caribbean. Right now we have different model scenarios on the distant future of Sandy: the Canadian model absolutely hammers us as the storm phases perfectly with the jet stream, the GFS takes the storm comfortably far enough away from us, and the ECMWF is somewhere in between, but still with significant effects.

In my opinion, the GFS scenario is less likely. I do think we will be seeing effects from Sandy early next week. The reason why I don’t like the GFS solution is that I think the model is being too progressive with the trough that will be coming through the midwest this weekend. Even the GFS ensemble mean is stronger and slower with that trough than the operational. With the negative tilt, the ensemble mean does have an ominous look to it:


The reason why Sandy could potentially be a problem is that a well defined omega block will be developing over the Atlantic. This is being caused by strong blocking south of Greenland.


This means that Sandy will encounter difficulty in any attempt to move eastward. Even the best case GFS is showing this to some extent.

It’s definitely too early to tell for sure, but I would keep an eye on the models and check back here during the next few days.

- NYCvorttumblr page counter

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8. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:11 PM GMT on November 30, 2012
NYCvort has created a new entry.
7. NumberWise
11:49 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Hi, NYCvort. Thanks for this blog. Each of you bloggers here on WU approaches the information from a slightly different perspective, so I learn from all of you. Stay safe!
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1691
6. weathergeek5
11:38 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Good to see you back!! Nice write up.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
5. NYCvort
11:15 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Hey Blizz- Thanks! Yeah, this is pretty incredible.
Member Since: June 20, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 144
4. Zachary Labe
9:48 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Nice update! I still cannot believe this whole scenario is actually occurring...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 281 Comments: 15085
3. NYCvort
4:18 PM GMT on October 26, 2012
Hey Joan and LT--nice to see both of you back here. I've updated my latest thoughts above.
Member Since: June 20, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 144
2. jerseycityjoan
3:42 AM GMT on October 25, 2012
Hey, glad to see you back.

Any additional thoughts?

Member Since: September 29, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
1. originalLT
2:43 PM GMT on October 23, 2012
Hi Vort, great to see you blogging again. I kind of go with the GFS. I understand your reasoning, the negative tilt and all, but I feel the storm will slide out to the North East before it would get pulled N or NNW by that negatively tilted trough. We'll see though. Again, great to hear from you.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7410

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About NYCvort

I am a meteorologist from New York who has been studying and forecasting the local weather for years. I especially enjoy tracking winter storms.

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