New York City Metro Weather

Light overrunning snow event possible to begin the weekend

By: NYCvort, 6:44 PM GMT on January 19, 2012



After some flurries moving across the area tonight, a more notable precipitation event will be upon us to start the weekend. This will be the very first shot at accumulating snowfall during the meteorological winter season. With a broad area of weak high pressure to our north, the stage will be set for an isentropic lift/overrunning event. Air will converge along a weak area of low pressure near the front to our south, and warm air will glide up a dome of colder air. This will lead to precipitation forming. This is also considered a stable air situation, so the line of frozen precipitation vs. rain will likely set up closer to the 546dm thickness line than the more usual 540dm line. As a result, I would expect most of the precipitation to fall in the form of snow, with the possibility of a brief changeover to sleet or freezing rain. In addition, these overrunning events are usually quicker to move than the models depict, and given the nature of gradual rising air in these types of situations, I do believe that less precipitation will actually fall than many of the models are currently showing. Given all of these factors, I would expect to see light snow begin to fall around midnight Saturday and continue through Saturday morning. A broad swath of 1 to 3 inches of snow could accumulate across the area by midday Saturday.

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About NYCvort

I am a meteorologist from New York who has been studying and forecasting the local weather for years. I especially enjoy tracking winter storms.