Hurricane Arthur

By: NEwxguy , 1:41 PM GMT on June 30, 2014

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June 30th

So July may come in with our first tropical system. Shouldn't be a danger as far as wind damage,but could generate some heavy rains,first along the North and South Carolina coast.Then may move northeast making a fairly close pass to SE Mass. bringing some heavy rains. It all depends on the front that will be slowly making its way through Southern New England by the end of the week,still a lot of possibilities and it may very well pass well out to sea and not effect us at all.Lets hope so with all the holiday plans this weekend.

July 1st

Very warm and very humid next couple of days then the active weather moves in.Potential for some very wet weather may ruin 4th of July activities,will still have to watch the track of future TS Arthur.Now predicting that it will become a weak Cat 1 hurricane has it moves past North Carolina and makes its closest pass by SE Mass. Not much wind effect for us up here,but a lot moisture coupled with the slow moving cold front could bring a lot of heavy downpours into southern New England. In situations like this, very hard to predict where the heaviest precip will line up.

Northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to
gradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the
cyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact,
latest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus
outflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during
the past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could
already be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm
sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady
strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus ivcn through 36 hours, and then
slightly higher after that.

July 2nd

Not much has changed from yesterday,Arthur has strengthened a little and the track still seems to be the same. Coastal sections of the Carolinas getting the brunt of Arthur,but for us it could ruin the 4th of July concert and fireworks in Boston as the moisture from Arthur and the slow moving cold front occur on Friday into Friday night. Officials weighing the idea of postponing it until Saturday night.Its still highly uncertain how much of an effect the TS will have,but a good bet a lot moisture will get drawn up into our area.We'll just have to wait and see. Tonight should give us a better picture.

July 3rd
As expected Arthur is now a hurricane,and during tonight will pass over the outer banks of North Carolina and then head northeast out to sea. Still in question how close it makes a pass to SE mass and Cape Cod,but it is likely they will see minimal tropical storm winds.The real story will be the heavy rains most of southern new england will experience. Today in the warm soupy air more thunderstorms and heavy downpours will form,the greatest risk is western New England,but storms and showers could popup any where at anytime. Then predecessor rains will start moving in late tonight and tomorrow morning, and then rains from Arthur will hit us tomorrow afternoon and evening. Expecting anywhere from 2 to as much as 5 inches in some areas.It's still a question mark where the heaviest rains will hit,but the greatest risk is eastern areas and down along Cape Cod.

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28. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:58 PM GMT on July 08, 2014
NEwxguy has created a new entry.
27. NEwxguy
6:24 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-027-040200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0391.140703T1815Z-140704T0200Z/

MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN
HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX
WORCESTER
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
26. sheslookingUP
4:57 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
It's like trying to breathe underwater here in Cambridge, the humidity is so intense. We had been going to go to the Cambridge side of the Charles for our usual picnic while listening to the concert and then seeing the fireworks, but not this year! Depending on the weather and fireworks schedule around 10 pm we might walk over to the river to get a better look at them--but no picnic, no sitting alongside the river for hours the way we usually do. And tomorrow we have tickets for the Constitution turnaround cruise in Boston Harbor. I doubt that will happen! Well, we'll just secure stuff on the deck and hunker down for whatever comes. Rain would be great if it's not hours of torrential. My daughter has friends who just set out for a week of camping--in North Carolina. whoops!
Member Since: March 28, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 238
25. NEwxguy
4:09 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL A THREAT.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
24. NEwxguy
1:25 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
Already seeing showers starting to popup southwest of here
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
23. NEwxguy
1:24 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
Yep,going to be a soggy couple of days.Will be interesting to see if they get their fireworks done in Boston.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
22. tlawson48
1:20 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
Crappy no matter which way you slice it. Either it's ridiculously hot and humid, or pouring crazy buckets with blinding lightning. The whole mess doesn't clear out until sometime Saturday. For most of the year, this would be a fine weekend, but because the Fourth of July has to happen on the 4th, I suspect a lot of folks will be rather angry with the weather.
Member Since: February 10, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1145
21. NEwxguy
1:17 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL A THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS RI AND SE MA CLOSEST TO
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
20. NEwxguy
1:16 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
Due to the expected heavy rains tomorrow our annual 4th of July celebration has been moved to tonight,but there are still risks with storms and possible severe weather,so it will be touch and go for tonight's events.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
19. NEwxguy
7:52 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
Western and northern areas getting hit hard right now. very big line heading ene across new england,will have to wait and see if this holds together by the time it reaches me.As the sun starts to set it may weaken,but with the moisture and and heat,and no wind off the colder waters,it may wind down slowly.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
18. NEwxguy
5:49 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
Quoting 17. sheslookingUP:

Just reporting that the results of my very unpleasant lung biopsy were all negative--no cancer, no treatment needed. I am endlessly grateful and am now ready to enjoy the summer! It is fiercely hot and humid here in Cambridge and I could do with a swimming pool. Not looking too great for the 4th--we have tickets to go into the harbor to watch the Constitution turnaround but not sure how that will be. Could sure use the rain, though.


Looking,I am so happy to hear that. You must be so relieved,now you can enjoy the holiday and the summer.
Yeh, the 4th looks in jeopardy,still unsure whats going to happen with Arthur,but the cold front is igniting some real bad storms,I see we are now in a severe thunderstorm watch.Originally we weren't suppose to get in on the action today,but they underestimated the hot and humid weather and the instability.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
17. sheslookingUP
5:46 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
Just reporting that the results of my very unpleasant lung biopsy were all negative--no cancer, no treatment needed. I am endlessly grateful and am now ready to enjoy the summer! It is fiercely hot and humid here in Cambridge and I could do with a swimming pool. Not looking too great for the 4th--we have tickets to go into the harbor to watch the Constitution turnaround but not sure how that will be. Could sure use the rain, though.
Member Since: March 28, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 238
16. NEwxguy
5:41 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MAC009-011-013-015-017-027-030100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0386.140702T1725Z-140703T0100Z/

MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
15. NEwxguy
5:10 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
We finally reached 90 degrees for the first time this year and our heat index is now 101 degrees.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
14. NEwxguy
5:07 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

SUNSHINE AND A VERY WARM HUMID AIRMASS MAY GENERATE SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD THEN MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MAY HAVE SMALL
HAIL. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF OCCURRENCE WOULD BE BETWEEN
2 PM AND 9 PM. THE MOST LIKELY AFFECTED PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WOULD BE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEY...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD SLIP EAST OF THAT AREA INTO THE
CENTRAL HILLS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THAT WEAKENING.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
13. NEwxguy
5:04 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LYCOMING COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 101 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR HUGHESVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUNCY...HUGHESVILLE...LAIRDSVILLE...BIGGERTOWN AND PICTURE ROCKS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 180 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 14.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
12. NEwxguy
4:55 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT.

* AT 1238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
HURLEYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WOODBOURNE...WOODRIDGE AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF NEVERSINK BY 1250 PM
EDT...
6 MILES SOUTH OF GRAHAMSVILLE BY 100 PM EDT...
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
11. NEwxguy
4:31 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
Heat index of 98 degrees.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
10. NEwxguy
4:22 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
Things are really starting to fire up early out in Penn. and NY and down the mid-atlantic,this looks to be a very active day.
Everyone should keep their eyes to the sky.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
9. NEwxguy
2:30 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
Looking at radar and satellite images and Arthur continues to wrap up nicely. precip is wrapping completely around the center and cloud images are really exploding around the center.So may have a hurricane by the end of the day.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
8. NEwxguy
12:52 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL WITH THESE STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE THROUGH MANCHESTER NEW HAMPSHIRE...WORCESTER
MASSACHUSETTS... PUTNAM CONNECTICUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
7. NEwxguy
8:06 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Storms really starting to pop in NY and Penn,things could get bad out there quick
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
6. NEwxguy
3:55 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
tropical storm watch up for central coast of Florida and Tropical storm warnings for the coast waters.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
5. NEwxguy
3:04 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
Looking at satellite images, it appears the storms and clouds are trying to build over the center now and it appears to have started its drift n and nw up the florida coast,but will have watch more satillite images as the day goes on.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
4. NEwxguy
1:20 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A
SECONDARY CONCERN FOR LARGE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD
BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE THROUGH MANCHESTER NEW
HAMPSHIRE...WORCESTER MASSACHUSETTS...PUTNAM CONNECTICUT.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
3. NEwxguy
7:01 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Its upper 80's,but it looks like we'll fall short of reaching 90 degrees.So the entire month of June we never hit 90 degrees. This has only happened about 3 or 4 times.We will probably hit 90 tomorrow and Wednesday. Dew point still isn't too bad,but will really jump later tonight.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
2. NEwxguy
3:37 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Storms are starting to fire up out in western Nebraska into Iowa,could be a very bad day out there.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
1. NEwxguy
1:42 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965

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