This blog is for anyone about anything,as long as you are respectful to others.Weather will be the theme,but topics of interest will show up.
By: NEwxguy , 1:41 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
So July may come in with our first tropical system. Shouldn't be a danger as far as wind damage,but could generate some heavy rains,first along the North and South Carolina coast.Then may move northeast making a fairly close pass to SE Mass. bringing some heavy rains. It all depends on the front that will be slowly making its way through Southern New England by the end of the week,still a lot of possibilities and it may very well pass well out to sea and not effect us at all.Lets hope so with all the holiday plans this weekend.
Very warm and very humid next couple of days then the active weather moves in.Potential for some very wet weather may ruin 4th of July activities,will still have to watch the track of future TS Arthur.Now predicting that it will become a weak Cat 1 hurricane has it moves past North Carolina and makes its closest pass by SE Mass. Not much wind effect for us up here,but a lot moisture coupled with the slow moving cold front could bring a lot of heavy downpours into southern New England. In situations like this, very hard to predict where the heaviest precip will line up.
Northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to
gradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the
cyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact,
latest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus
outflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during
the past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could
already be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm
sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady
strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus ivcn through 36 hours, and then
slightly higher after that.
Not much has changed from yesterday,Arthur has strengthened a little and the track still seems to be the same. Coastal sections of the Carolinas getting the brunt of Arthur,but for us it could ruin the 4th of July concert and fireworks in Boston as the moisture from Arthur and the slow moving cold front occur on Friday into Friday night. Officials weighing the idea of postponing it until Saturday night.Its still highly uncertain how much of an effect the TS will have,but a good bet a lot moisture will get drawn up into our area.We'll just have to wait and see. Tonight should give us a better picture.
As expected Arthur is now a hurricane,and during tonight will pass over the outer banks of North Carolina and then head northeast out to sea. Still in question how close it makes a pass to SE mass and Cape Cod,but it is likely they will see minimal tropical storm winds.The real story will be the heavy rains most of southern new england will experience. Today in the warm soupy air more thunderstorms and heavy downpours will form,the greatest risk is western New England,but storms and showers could popup any where at anytime. Then predecessor rains will start moving in late tonight and tomorrow morning, and then rains from Arthur will hit us tomorrow afternoon and evening. Expecting anywhere from 2 to as much as 5 inches in some areas.It's still a question mark where the heaviest rains will hit,but the greatest risk is eastern areas and down along Cape Cod.
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