watching weekend storm

By: NEwxguy , 2:31 PM GMT on December 09, 2013

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Dec. 9th
So we have a little snow,changing over to a little sleet/frzing rain,then rain,but very low impact.People just have to take it slow.At most in my area an inch of snow,already mixing.

Dec.10th,
Doesn't look like winter is going to ease up anytime soon.Active weather pattern and each time a system goes by it pulls down artic air.Pretty strong system this weekend.Looks like it will come close enough to give us snow changing to a wintry mix. Still too far away to nail down exact track which ultimately determines who sees the most wintry weather.

Dec.11th
Stage is set for major winter storm this weekend.Cold air in place today and reinforcing shot of artic air later today and again on Friday.High pressure will settle into the Maritimes this weekend and coastal cyclogenesis makes for a lot of wintery precip.Still uncertain of track,but whether there is a change over or not there will be significant snow,if the colder solution holds,we could be talking at least a foot of snow,especially inland from the coast.Will have to wait for a couple of days to nail down the track.

Dec.12th
With our nor'easters the strength and track is usually determined by whether the northern and southern streams phase.At this time it looks like they won't phase for our weekend storm,so models are trending weaker and further south.Of course with these coastal storms things can change over the next couple of days,but it doesn't look like a blockbuster storm,in fact its very possible it may turn into less then 6 inches.Since the coastal system hasn't formed,we'll just have to wait and see.

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31. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:17 PM GMT on December 16, 2013
NEwxguy has created a new entry.
30. NEwxguy
9:37 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
QPF...WITH MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SHEARED LOW MODEL QPF
CONSENSUS (50/50 BLEND OF GFS/EC) IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
TOTAL QPF RANGING FROM 0.60 TO 0.80 INCHES.

PTYPE...GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TOWARD A WEAKER COASTAL LOW AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE TRACK...THE PROBABILITY OF A COLDER SOLUTION HAS INCREASED.
THIS TREND LEANS TOWARD MAINLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CT/NORTHERN RI AND THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR A
COASTAL LOW PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THE MIXED PRECIP
LINE MAY BE HELD FARTHER SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH OVER
QUEBEC COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPMENT IN RI AND
EASTERN-SOUTHEASTERN MA.

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...THIS EVENT IS STILL 2 DAYS AWAY AND THE COASTAL
STORM HASN/T FORMED YET. THUS OUR PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL FORECAST IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH POSSIBLY LESS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS AS MIXED PRECIP MAY ENTER THIS REGION. COLD AIRMASS
AT THE ONSET MAY YIELD GREATER THAN A 10/1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.
THIS COMBINED WITH ANY MID LEVEL BANDING POTENTIAL INTRODUCES A LOW
RISK OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SNOWFALL NUMBERS
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SNOW AND POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIP TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL WITH TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS LATE
SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
29. NEwxguy
7:15 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Yeh,going to see how this all shakes out,going to be going back and forth
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
28. Pcroton
5:45 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
That's odd they say models weather and south because the 12Z is coming in and is much stronger and colder.

gfs Thru 84hrs snow depth


12Z NAM was also colder and snowier for New England.


12Z Euro also puts large swath of 12" from northern NJ through southern New England - excluding SE Mass and SE NJ (9"->6->3->0" contours in rapid succession).

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7272
27. NEwxguy
4:57 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Pcro,
This time of year,its always a question of where the coastal front will setup and change precip.
Also our NWS is indicating models are weaker and farther south.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
26. Pcroton
4:49 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
Hi NE.

I feel the same way. All the energy is there but where does it come together is the question - early or late.

I think for you being further north it is a little less of an issue overall as one way or another by the time you get the storm it will have consolidated.


For those of us down in NJ it may consolidate to our south - or wait until our coastal waters. Our potential outcome is wide ranging as a result.

Would think your question is strong storm of very strong storm - outside of the always tough immediate coastlines of course.

Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7272
25. NEwxguy
4:43 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
See predictions all over the place for the weekend storm,just going to sit back and wait until Saturday.
Need to get this formed before we start throwing out amounts.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
24. NEwxguy
1:52 PM GMT on December 12, 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WINTER STORM TO
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
23. NEwxguy
7:57 PM GMT on December 11, 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH
HEAVY SNOW AND ICE.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
22. NEwxguy
7:57 PM GMT on December 11, 2013
Hi,Lt,yep,usually Miami is up here this time of year,but down there this time.With all their injuries,its going to be a battle and Miami is a good team,so who knows.

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
21. originalLT
2:50 PM GMT on December 11, 2013
I see the Pats are in Miami--no weather worries for them, just have the "fish" to be concerned about.--Funny they call them "the Fish", when a dolphin is a mammal!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7450
20. originalLT
2:45 PM GMT on December 11, 2013
Yep, still too early to predict an all snow event. It would be cool though, as the Giants play Seattle at the Meadowlands in NJ. Could be a nice "preview" for the Super Bowl! (Weather wise I mean) I think the Giants play 1pm on Sunday,--I'll check it out. -- Yup, 1pm Sunday.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7450
19. originalLT
1:10 AM GMT on December 11, 2013
I got about 3" in Stamford CT.
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18. NEwxguy
10:07 PM GMT on December 10, 2013
All eyes on this weekend's storm,today models have shifted colder which would mean much more snow then mixing.If it stays cold definitely a plowable snow.Will have to watch the next couple of days while the models settle down and get a better handle on the track.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
17. NEwxguy
6:53 PM GMT on December 10, 2013
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
135 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

MAZ004>007-011>016-026-NHZ012-102100-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...
LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...SPRINGFIELD...MI LFORD...
WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTO N...QUINCY...
AYER...MANCHESTER...NASHUA
135 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON...

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UNTIL 3 PM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE TO TWO
MILES...YET VISIBILITIES CAN GET AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A COATING TO AN INCH.

WHILE MOST ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WET...ANTICIPATE SLICK AND
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. TRAVELING WILL BE
HAZARDOUS WITH EXPECTED REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
16. NEwxguy
6:51 PM GMT on December 10, 2013
very christmas feel outside with a gentle light snow falling.
Maybe an inch this afternoon when a narrow band of moderate snow comes through,should be all over by 4 or 5 pm.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
15. NEwxguy
3:15 PM GMT on December 10, 2013
few flakes falling here,but radar looks very scattered so not expecting much at first.Will have to wait and see if the steadier snow makes it to me,going to be close
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
14. NEwxguy
2:36 PM GMT on December 10, 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE
INTO THE GREATER BOSTON AREA...WITH AN INCH OR LESS NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A WINTRY MIX THAT MAY REQUIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE WEEKEND.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
13. originalLT
2:25 PM GMT on December 10, 2013
See!!!
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12. NEwxguy
2:24 PM GMT on December 10, 2013
Well,I gave up on the Pats with less than 2 minutes left and look how that turned out,so I guess I better keep the faith on this too.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
11. originalLT
2:19 PM GMT on December 10, 2013
Don't "give up the ship" NEw, you still may get 2-4".
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10. NEwxguy
2:18 PM GMT on December 10, 2013
I think it will get to us in the Boston area,but still looks like the heaviest is conn.,RI and SE Mass.I may see an inch or possibly 2,but not much more.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
9. Pcroton
4:19 AM GMT on December 10, 2013
With the way things have evolved today it looks like you will be getting in on this system after all, NEwx.

Quite the developments this evening.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7272
8. Pcroton
9:29 PM GMT on December 09, 2013
So it looks like you may get a taste from Tuesday's system?

I don't know. Is it really going to reach that far north?

As I detailed in my blog I think we have some model perference watching going on here....and it's causing problems.

Low snow totals forecast = Euro low snow-liquid ration being used.
Northerly track = NAM being used.

The GFS seems to have the best handle on placement and totals - and that leaves New England out of it.
Member Since: September 26, 2011 Posts: 45 Comments: 7272
7. NEwxguy
9:27 PM GMT on December 09, 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED ON TUESDAY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
6. NEwxguy
7:33 PM GMT on December 09, 2013
Gone above freezing with occasional shower or spotty drizzle.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
5. NEwxguy
5:31 PM GMT on December 09, 2013
Yeh,Pcro,I get the feeling this is going to be the mid-atlantic year for snow.Things just aren't set up for us up here the way they should,but not so sure this will stay this way all winter.Get the sense a pattern change coming in January,could turn warm for a while.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15644
4. Pcroton
4:30 PM GMT on December 09, 2013
I just saw the replay of the hit. Yuck.


Looks like us further south are in for another nice surprise tomorrow....while you guys still wait and twiddle your thumbs wondering when you'll make use of this incredible arctic setup we have.

A lot of people think the pattern we see now is the pattern we are going to get through the winter. That would continue to favor the upper middle atlantic but...further into new england could constantly find itself on the dry side of things.

I guess you guys have to pray for a negative nao block to set up to get the jet stream kink to get the coastal lows to head up to you more.

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3. NEwxguy
4:24 PM GMT on December 09, 2013
Hey,Lt,they didn't deserve to win,horrible pass interference call,but that said,they aren't going anywhere after losing Gronk.Porous defense and now their main redzone threat is gone.Doesn't look good.
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2. originalLT
2:56 PM GMT on December 09, 2013
What a win for the Pats yesterday, but too bad about Gronkowski. That will really hurt their chances in the playoffs.
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1. NEwxguy
2:54 PM GMT on December 09, 2013
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
CENTRAL AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCRETION LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS IN
MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE PORTIONS
OF THE WORCESTER HILLS WHERE FREEZING RAIN MAY PERSIST A BIT
LONGER.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON SOME ROADWAYS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER.
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