2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #7B (Special Update)

By: NCHurricane2009 , 2:07 PM GMT on April 26, 2012

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...APRIL 26 2012...
This partial discussion is issued as a special update concerning a potential tropical disturbance developing in the central Caribbean Sea.

During the previous week, an unusually late winter storm extratropical cyclone dumped heavy snow in western New York State and Pennsylvania. Since then, the associated large upper trough and associated surface cold front has emerged into the western Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms have been gradually increasing across the central Caribbean Sea as the upper trough/surface cold front interacts with the surface North South American monsoon/ITCZ.

Upper-level flow is both southwesterly and divergent in advance of the large upper trough. The divergent aspect of the upper flow...coupled with surface convergence from the surface cold front & ITCZ/north South American monsoon...are repsonsible for the activity presently in the central Caribbean. The southwesterly aspect of the upper flow is shearing the disturbance. However if latent heat release continues with these thunderstorms...the upper flow could become more anticyclonic as a warm core upper ridge develops overhead. If this were to occur...this would enhance the outflow and reduce the vertical shear...and a tropical disturbance would be very likely. Should this happen...I will be re-issuing full birdseye discussions.

In the short term...expect the upper southwesterly flow to transport moisture from this disturbance northeastward...bringing rains to Jamaica...eastern Cuba...Haiti...and the Dominican Republic.

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4. NCHurricane2009
2:47 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
If something were to form down there in the next few days, it would be the the first tropical cyclone on record to form in the Caribbean during the month of April. May has only produced a few down there.


That what I was thinking as well this morning. But...I am not getting too excited till I see that warm core upper-level high start developing.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
3. NCHurricane2009
2:45 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting nigel20:
Thanks NCH2009...much appreciated


No problem....this is all I could issue while busy here at work. Hate when these disturbances start developing when I am at work...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
2. hydrus
2:44 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
If something were to form down there in the next few days, it would be the the first tropical cyclone on record to form in the Caribbean during the month of April. May has only produced a few down there. The Atlantic is a little different, and has had a named storm in April. The Gulf of Mexico has had May sub-tropical storms as well.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22712
1. nigel20
2:20 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Thanks NCH2009...much appreciated
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8488

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