2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #59

By: NCHurricane2009 , 3:54 AM GMT on August 10, 2014

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...SATURDAY AUGUST 9 2014 11:55 PM EDT...
A strong tropical wave over western Africa has become better organized between 1800Z and 0000Z this evening...and is expected to emerge into the eastern tropical Atlantic waters in the next 24 hours. As the atmospheric features chart below shows...upper vorticity marked by blue-dashed lines is located in the central tropical Atlantic...northeastern Atlantic...and northwestern Atlantic. Over the next week...this upper vorticity is forecast to merge into a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) that will eventually shift south ahead of an amplifying western Atlantic upper ridge. However if current trends continue...this tropical wave has a high chance of additional development while passing south of the unfavorable TUTT. If the tropical wave continues to become organized...I will consider upgrading it to a special feature in my next blog post.

 photo Aug_09_2014_2215Z_zps79abd60e.png
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and the 1949Z-released WPC analysis.

Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.

In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.

In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.

 photo Aug_09_2014_2215Z_Thermo_zps1d6b4142.png
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.

Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).

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4:45 AM GMT on August 11, 2014
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