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By: NCHurricane2009 , 12:09 AM GMT on June 18, 2014
...TUESDAY JUNE 17 2014 8:09 PM EDT...
Shower and thunderstorm flare ups continue in the southern Caribbean Sea as a surface tropical wave interacts with split flow upper divergence on the southwestern quadrant of a cut-off upper vortex that has developed over Cuba and the Bahamas. However the formation of this cut-off upper vortex is further east than forecast a few days ago which makes the westerly vertical shear on the south side of the upper vortex excessively high for tropical development in the Caribbean. In addition...their is no computer model support suggesting development in the Caribbean. Therefore the Atlantic tropics remain quiet at this hour.
...ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES BIRDSEYE CHART...
This chart is generated based on surface analysis from the National Hurricane Center TAFB at 1800Z and 1920Z-released WPC analysis.
Features boxed in green...if any...are mentioned in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) traditional 48-hour outlook and or are considered an "Invest" on the Naval Research Laboratory site of the US Navy at the time the chart was generated. I do not box features in green if they are only included in the NHC's longer term 5-day outlook.
In light blue is upper air analysis, with 200 mb wind barbs calculated by GOES satellite imagery showing the upper-level wind direction. Based on the 200 mb wind barbs, blue-dashed lines are locations of upper troughs, blue-zig-zag lines are locations of upper ridges. Blue Ls are locations of upper lows, blue Hs are locations of upper ridges.
In red is surface analysis, with solid lines indicating locations of surface fronts, dashed lines indicating locations of surface troughs, and zig-zag lines indicating surface ridge axes. Ls indicate surface lows, Hs indicate surface highs.
...THERMODYNAMICS BIRDSEYE CHART...
This chart is generated using GOES water vapor satellite imagery. Brown indicates dry air. White, blue, and purple indicates moist air. An increase in moisture indicates slower air parcel lapse rates with elevation and hence an increase toward instability.
Sea-surface temperatures are overlaid with light blue isotherms. The 26 deg C isotherm is highlighted in red. Waters at and south of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate low-level warmth and hence faster environmental lapse rates with elevation (more instability). Waters north of the 26 deg C isotherm indicate slower environmental lapse rates with elevation (less instability).
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