2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #76A (Special Update)

By: NCHurricane2009 , 12:36 AM GMT on August 26, 2013

Share this Blog
0
+

...SUNDAY AUGUST 25 2013 8:36 PM EDT...
Aircraft Reconnaissance has reached tropical depression six and has determined that previous estimates using surface observations and satellite organization had under-predicted the true strength of the cyclone. The depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernand of 45 mph maximum sustained winds. In addition...the center has been fixed further southwest from previous estimates such that the NHC has adjusted their forecast track further south. Since my previous forecast track in discussion #76 already had a southward bias...I am not making much adjustment to that track. The following is my updated intensity forecast in lieu of the upgrade to Tropical Storm Fernand:

7 PM Sun Aug 25 2013...45 mph...initial
10 PM Sun Aug 25 2013...50 mph...3 hr (Landfall)
4 AM Mon Aug 26 2013...40 mph...9 hr
10 AM Mon Aug 26 2013...35 mph...15 hr (Dissipating)

The NHC forecast intensity suggests a peak of 60 mph for the landfall later tonight. Although their has been a very recent and impressive storm burst over the center as seen on satellite to support the NHC forecast...with the center currently close to the coast I do not think that Fernand will quiet make it to that strength before landfall.

Return to full discussion #76 for an assessment on the rest of the Atlantic tropics.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

1. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:12 AM GMT on August 26, 2013
NCHurricane2009 has created a new entry.

Viewing: 1 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About NCHurricane2009

NCHurricane2009 doesn't have a bio yet.

NCHurricane2009's Recent Photos

Sep_11_2014_TS_Edouard_Forecast.jpg
Sep_11_2014_2345Z_Thermo.jpg
Sep_11_2014_2345Z.jpg
Nov 8 2012 Tropical Atlantic Atmospheric Features