2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #53A (Special Update)

By: NCHurricane2009 , 9:30 PM GMT on July 27, 2013

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...SATURDAY JULY 27 2013 5:30 PM EDT...
A satellite scan of surface winds has revealed that Dorian's surface circulation has opened up into a tropical wave...and therefore despite maintaining 40 mph maximum sustained winds Dorian is technically no longer a tropical storm. Therefore the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has stopped advisories on Tropical Storm Dorian unless regeneration of a closed surface circulation occurs. I believe the highest chance of any regeneration potential is between now and Monday morning...after which time the remnant tropical wave of Dorian will slide under an upper vortex stalling over the Bahamas and dissipate below its upper convergence.

I still stand behind the intensity forecast shown in Figure 1 of full discussion #53...which suggests that the remnant tropical wave of Dorian could maintain 40 mph maximum sustained winds between now and Monday morning. Interpret the track forecast line as the projected track of the lowest surface pressure along Dorian's remnant tropical wave.

Return to full discussion #53 for an assessment on the rest of the Atlantic tropics...including in depth discussion of disturbed weather offshore of the eastern United States associated with a decaying frontal boundary and an eastern Atlantic tropical wave that has become better organized this afternoon. Should the system offshore of the eastern United States quickly develop during the next 24 hours...I will be posting additional special updates between now and my next full discussion...

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