2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #50A (Special Update)

By: NCHurricane2009 , 11:10 AM GMT on July 24, 2013

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...WEDNESDAY JULY 24 2013 6:45 AM EDT...
Tropical wave Invest 98-L has become tropical depression four as of 5 AM EDT this morning...centered 310 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Based on the current WNW heading of the depression...between now and 5 AM tomorrow morning...the system will be crossing sea-surface temperatures at or below 26 deg C...which will keep the thunderstorm activity on the weaker side and thus allow a chance of Saharan dry air to get ingested into the circulation from the northwest. Therefore I forecast a bit of a slower intensification rate than the NHC did at 5 AM:

5 AM Wed Jul 24 2013..35 mph...initial
5 PM Wed Jul 24 2013...35 mph...12 hr
5 AM Thu Jul 25 2013...40 mph...24 hr

I will be doing a full forecast for this tropical cyclone in my next discussion tonight. In the meantime refer to the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov) for latest information on this system. Return to full discussion #50 for an assessment on the rest of the Atlantic tropics.

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3:30 PM GMT on July 24, 2013
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