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By: NCHurricane2009 , 10:31 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
...SUNDAY DECEMBER 2 2012...5:30 AM EDT...
Formation of a post-season subtropical or tropical cyclone in the middle of the open Atlantic becoming very likely this morning...
Despite the official end of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season on November 30...a surface low currently centered near 43.5W-20N is gaining tropical characteristics with an impressive comma-shaped area of thunderstorms in its northeast half. Hovmoller diagrams from the National Hurricane Center (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/gehov2latest. gif) indicate that the south end of an upper trough cut-off in the middle of the Atlantic around November 27...upon since when the cut-off upper trough's eastern divergence supported a distinct area of thunderstorms and gradual formation of this surface low.
According to the latest surface maps from the National Hurricane Center TAFB...the system has no surface fronts attached to the surface low. Coupled with the impressive comma-shaped thunderstorm mass this morning...the system at least appears to be a subtropical cyclone...which is a system that has a shallow vertical warm core from thunderstorm latent heat release but the thunderstorms are generated by upper divergence and-or instability from a cold core upper trough/vortex.
Despite the fact that the thunderstorm activity is currently supported by an upper trough...the comma shaped area of thunderstorms has generated anticyclonic warm core upper outflow across the east half of this system according to the latest satellite-derived 200 mb upper winds. Warm core upper anticyclones are more indicative of a fully-vertical tropical warm core...and therefore this system may become fully tropical despite the water temps currently below 26 deg C.
This feature is currently designated as Invest 91-L on the Navy NRL site. Latest info of this system can be found on www.nhc.noaa.gov. In lieu of this system...I will be resuming full birdseye discussions late tonight.
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