2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #131A (Special Update)

By: NCHurricane2009 , 11:35 AM GMT on October 12, 2012

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...FRIDAY OCTOBER 12 2012...7:35 AM EDT...
While I was writing full discussion #131...new data as of the 5 AM EDT NHC forecast shows Patty located further south than previously thought...and has begun drifting SSW. Therefore...the NHC has adjuster their track forecast further south between 11 PM EDT and 5 AM EDT. Therefore my track forecast in Figure 1 of discussion #131...which has a slight north bias relative to the 11 PM EDT forecast...is no longer valid. With the center further south and her track SSW...her center is further removed from her t-storm activity...and therefore satellite classification techniques suggest she has weakened to a minimal tropical storm of 40 mph max winds. If current trends continue...she could easily weaken to a tropical depression later today and dissipate a lot sooner than previously forecast in discussion #131.

These changes in Patty do not increase the threat to the Bahamas or any other land areas beyond which her forecast WSW track will take her. As explained in discussion #131...Patty is not expected to bring tropical storm winds or heavy rains to any land areas.

Return to full discussion #131 for an update on the rest of the Atlantic tropics...in particular special feature Invest 98-L which could quickly spin up into a tropical cyclone while moving into land areas in the eastern Caribbean. Visit www.nhc.noaa.gov for up to the minute information on 98-L...in particular should tropical cyclone formation occur and any tropical storm warnings be issued in the next 24 hrs before my next full blog update. My next full blog update should occur sometime Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon.

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11:42 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
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