2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #95A (Special Update)

By: NCHurricane2009 , 10:22 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

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...SEPTEMBER 3 2012...6:15 PM EDT...
This special update serves to address changes in Tropical Storm Leslie and subtropical disturbance Invest 99-L that have occurred since the release of full discussion #95.

Tropical Storm Leslie has taken longer to advance to the north...and instead has taken quiet a westward wobble over the last several hours. Will re-assess in my next full blog update sometime tonight or early tomorrow morning how this westward wobble changes the threat to Bermuda...the US east coast...and Atlantic Canada in the long range. Will also try to assess why the unexpected westward wobble occurred.

This afternoon...subtropical disturbance Invest 99-L has become tropical depression thirteen well to the east-northeast of Tropical Storm Leslie. I had previously assessed that the t-storm activity was too little for tropical cyclogenesis...but it now appears 99-L is a very small circulation that does not require a signficant areal extent of t-storms. In fact...99-L has been firing a small but strong enough area of t-storms in the last 12 hours to be considered a small tropical cyclone. I will be doing a forecast on the new tropical cyclone during my next full discussion sometime tonight or early tomorrow morning.

Return to full discussion #95 for my most recent assessment on the rest of the Atlantic tropics.

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