OK, it's time to say it...Fall And Winter Forecast.

By: N3EG, 6:49 PM GMT on September 27, 2013

Here is the long range winter forecast, and by long range I mean the winter up to mid January. Yes, I know, fall just started and anything over 180 hours is supposed to be crazy wishcasting, but since I've been right the last few years, here we go anyway.

EVERYTHING will be early by one month. Everything will be colder by one month. This means the possibility of November snow, and also the possibility that Pacific storms will have cold enough temperatu...

Updated: 6:50 PM GMT on September 27, 2013

This year

By: N3EG, 10:34 PM GMT on August 07, 2013

I guess by now everyone knows this is a west wind summer. No east wind, barely any north wind, and no south wind. This means no thunderstorms for the Longview area at all, lots of low clouds in the morning, and generally boring weather with my high temp for the year only 87 degrees. Yawn.

Why? The Pacific is too darn cold. EPac hurricanes are mostly going west toward Hawaii and not recurving their remnants toward California (only one has so far this y...

Pacific Northwest Weather

Updated: 10:35 PM GMT on August 07, 2013

The Prediction

By: N3EG, 11:03 PM GMT on October 08, 2012

The latest forecast calls for the door to slam shut on October 12, only three days short of my prediction during summer. They're calling for 72 degrees on the 11th and a 40% rainy 54 degrees on the 12th, compared to my 65/52/rain 14th/15th prediction. Let's see what we actually get and when.Also keep in mind that this prediction was made only by using the last two years as analog years - back on August 13! Should I go ahead now and predict when summer starts next...

I think I nailed the forecast, so far...

By: N3EG, 11:35 PM GMT on September 27, 2012

It's been 1.5 months since the last post, and summer has been hanging on. Long range shows no rain until at least October 5, and temperatures are still up in the 70s. That's just how it's gonna be - one day it's 65 and sunny, next day it's 52 and rain until next June.

Outlook for the fall of 2012

By: N3EG, 9:58 PM GMT on August 13, 2012

My completely uneducated guesstimation for the upcoming weak El Nino winter: Moderate rain in October and November, heavy snow in December. In mid October, the door slams shut on warm weather and we have a colder winter than usual. In other words, it's an "I didn't move outta Philly for this crap" winter. Notice I didn't say fall or autumn...it goes right to winter this year. October 14, 65 degrees and sunny; October 15, 52 degrees and cloudy. Bam.

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About N3EG

Note: N3EG is only a ham radio operator. He is not a licensed meteorologist, and his forecast should be taken with a grain of silver iodide.

Local Weather

54 °F

Personal Weather Stations

West Longview
Longview, WA
Elevation: 16 ft
Temperature: 53.0 °F
Dew Point: 41.6 °F
Humidity: 65%
Wind: 1.0 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Updated: 5:45 PM PDT on April 17, 2014

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