Summer 2014 Forecast for Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

By: Mikeman444 , 11:57 PM GMT on June 22, 2014

Here is the Summer 2014 forecast.

After a miserable spring, or maybe call it 2nd winter lol. As of June 22 there still has not been a 30C+ day and the colder weather seems to be dragging on into the summer. It has been a solid 5 months since we have been seasonal or above so the region could really use some hot weather. Will it come?
The summer forecast this year will doubly as the thunderstorm forecast as well.

Note: I firmly believe that June 21st is the true start to summer, in this part of the world it does not warm up much until late June and typically lasts until mid September. So I issue my forecasts based on the solstice and equinox.

Summer 2014 Forecast
Issued 5:30pm June 22 2014

Temperatures should be well above normal to near record warm for Northwestern Alberta, Northern Saskatchewan, and most of Manitoba. Slightly above normal temperatures for the rest. Rain fall will be well below normal in Northwestern Alberta, near normal for the rest of the provinces.

Rest of June: Widespread thunderstorms, slightly warmer than normal over most areas.

July 1-15: Warm, humid with heavy rain and thunderstorms in Alberta, hot in Manitoba and Sask.

July 15-31: Warm to hot, very humid, Frequent severe thunderstorms over most areas.

August 1-15: Very hot and humid, particularly in Manitoba. Severe thunderstorms widespread. Near normal temperatures in Alberta

August 15-31: Slight cool off, Becoming dryer, thunderstorms still quite widespread

Sept 1-21: Extremely hot for the time of year to start, temperatures nearing 40C one or two days in the southern most areas. Intense thunderstorms sparked from the heat and ushering a rapid cool down in most areas.

Thunderstorm forecast(numbers are for a ~100 square km area)
-Lower Activity for most of the summer in northern Alberta.
-Higher activity for the first half of the summer in Central and southern Alberta.

-Near normal Activity in Northern Saskatchewan
-Higher activity in central and Southern Saskatchewan

-Near normal Activity in northern and central Manitoba
-Higher activity in southern Manitoba.

I've so far recorded 15 thunderstorms for the year, this is somewhat average.

(Deseret Thunderstorm cells: does not show thunderstorms days as multiple storms are expected in a single day)
City forecast, the numbers
Grande Prairie: less than 25
Edmonton: 25-35
Red Deer: 35-45
Calgary: around: 40-50
Medicine hat, Brooks: 60-70
Lethbridge: 50-60

Prince Albert: around 30
Battlefords: around 35
Saskatoon: 40-50
Swift current: 55-65
Regia: 60-70
Yorkton: 50-60
Estevan: more than 75

Dauphin: 50-60
Brandon: 50-60
Winnipeg: 55-65
Steinbach: 55-65

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