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Tropical Storm Chantal Analysis | 11:30p.m EDT
By: MiamiHurricanes09 , 3:24 AM GMT on July 09, 2013
Tropical Storm Chantal
Tropical Storm Chantal is currently located approximately 235 miles ESE of Barbados and is tracking towards the WNW (285˚) at 23kts. The current intensity of 45kts (52mph) along with a minimum central pressure of 1010mb (29.82in.) was assessed by a Reconnaissance aircraft a few hours ago. Latest infrared satellite imagery reveals a relatively disorganized cyclone with dull banding features located along the southwestern and western octants along with mediocre upper-level outflow. Furthermore, a disheveled central dense overcast (CDO) is present with very few cloud tops exhibiting temperatures cooler than -70˚C. The surface circulation of Chantal is relatively disorganized and poorly defined as evidenced by the aforementioned Reconnaissance mission. Nevertheless, Chantal remains in a relatively favorable thermodynamic environment with mid to lower-level dry air barely impeding upon the system and vertical wind shear below 10kts.
Chantal will be tracking briskly towards the WNW south of the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge for the next 24-30 hours, which in unison with the strong trade winds, will probably prevent the circulation from becoming any better defined. Beyond 30 hours, a deceleration in speed is expected and Chantal should have an easier time intensifying as it approaches southeastern Hispañola. Ensuing 48 hours, after Chantal reemerges into the southwestern Atlantic after traversing Hispañola, both the intensity and track forecasts become more uncertain. Personally, I am left of the NHC forecast and consider myself to be more in line with the 00z TVCN with a sharp turn towards the west in about 96 hours.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispañola, and the Bahamas should be preparing for a moderate to strong tropical storm.
Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Chantal valid 02:45UTC.
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