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Last Updated: 7:40 AM GMT on July 01, 2009
— Last Comment: 7:17 PM GMT on July 03, 2009
- Arizona
Generally similar convective conditions as of yesterday however another gulf surge has occured over the southwest low deserts and southeast California with soundings at Yuma as of 930am indicating dew points in the mid 60's. A slight increase in moisture from yesterday morning due to outflow boundaries from convection in the higher elevations east of phoenix and the Large MCS that died this morning over northern sonora. However one note is slight drying did take place in the mid levels over southeast Arizona but this should not delay convection today over the area since most of the area is under mostly sunny skies as of 1000am and stronger instability is present which means there is a possibility of Iso to Sct SVR thunderstorms similar to late afternoon yesterday and with a weak steering flow, flash flooding is a concern. We will be looking into issuing a Flash Flood Watch for Parts of Southeast Arizona for the rest of the morning so please check back often for updates to the SVR WX Alert Model. Elsewhere, Iso thunderstorms are yet again likely along rim country today stretching into the white mountains. Flagstaff may be effected with another stray afternoon thunderstorm with brief heavy downpours so watch out for that. Otherwise, most showers and thunderstorms will develop and remain along and south of the Rim or Flagstaff points south and east. Cannot rule out a stray afternoon thunderstorm or a few near Prescott Valley however this is the line of how far west any significant activity will get. Throughout Northwest, Western, and Southwest Arizona, A sli Chc of convection and building afternoon clouds will rule the forecast. The MFM Model indicates very similar favored areas as of yesterday and this will be across Southeast Arizona east and south of Tucson from sierra vista, north to Wilcox and Safford into the White mountains then WNW along and south of the Rim but remaining in the higher elevations east and north of Phoenix, Flagstaff will be included in the wording and Prescott Valley points ESE. Generally speaking, thunderstorms will contain brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail, and damaging winds. As Mentioned before, there is a chance of Iso to Sct SVR and those areas outlined in the MFM Model above. - Southern Nevada Today is quite similar with yesterday, however, a little more moisture to deal with and slightly more unstable ATMO. However one drawback is scattered to broken mid level cloudiness stretching from the Las Vegas Valley points west and north. This may delay Iso Convection development by a few hours but i do expect these to thin rather quickly and move at a fast pace to the N. The forecast today remains generally the same as Northwest Arizona, i still do expect a SLI CHC OF ISO convection this afternoon however activity may actually develop today and this will occur in the same areas which are South and east of Primm into Searchlight and the Spring Mountains west of Vegas. Any thunderstorms that develop will contain light rain, occasional lightning, and strong microburst winds. To Sum it up, if storms develop, they will be dry and produce little rain which will heighten the fire danger. - Southern California Most of Southern California will be in a high shear zone today and unfavorable dynamics, despite the lack of debris clouds and decent moisture in all levels, any convection that begins to develop will be stopped by shear and marginal instability. What we are going to call this is a building day where mostly sunny skies with a sli chc of iso showers and weak convection will allow instability to get stronger and unstablize the ATMO throughout the day, slowly, of course. What i am expecting is Wednesday and Thursday be the better days for better coverage of showers and thunderstorms and some may be on the strong side. Otherwise, today is going to be a boring, hot, humid day at best with a sli chc of iso showers in the normal favored areas. _______________________________________________________ Daniel E Lead Forecaster/ Site Owner www.SWMXA.webs.com
Effective Now... The Entire Forecast Area excluding the coastal Southern California... The Southwest Monsoon Authority is monitoring a chance of isolated thunderstorms starting in Southeast Arizona Wednesday then spreading north and west by the weekend to include the southern california and southern nevada mountains and desert by Friday through the weekend. Progs show this is directly related to the monsoon due to a southeastern flow of subtropi...
No Monsoon Event Expected through the weekend!Daniel E.Lead Forecaster/Site OwnerLink
SWMA begin forecasting on the main page since friday as a upper level low and the four corners high interacts to bring monsoonal moisture up from mexico. Please check www.swmxa.webs.com for more information on the early monsoon wave coming through the southwest, you can also check out the Research Center and track the monsoons progression as the monsoon upper ridge continues to develop and strengthen rapidly into the next few weeksDaniel ELead Forecaster/Site Ownerw...
- I have to say that for the record, it has not been very cold so far this season. We have had many offshore wind events, most of them weak and we had a couple stronger ones. To add it all up, the west is in a zonal flow with high pressure ridges so far and the east gets it all with heavy snow and cold. WSPC ES1 & ES2 all the way down the row to ES7 are showing a type of troughing by December 13th lasting into December 16th for the western united states. ES1 through...
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