Oh! -- Can We Move On Fast Enough?

By: MargieKieper , 11:24 PM GMT on June 01, 2007

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Is there anyone who cannot wait to forget "TS Barry?"

This is a pleasant sight:

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Putting aside the unwelcome hype and "cry wolf" potential, maybe it's best to just remember the ROFL moments associated with this chapter of the Atlantic 2007 hurricane season: that initial just-home-from-work oh-they-didn't! moment when seeing the word "Barry" in the inbox (after which I generated a blog entry in record time -- five minutes -- then got on the phone with the equally-unbelieving Steve Gregory, where we hypered each other into a frenzy)...the comment by NWSFO Miami in their local discussion when Barry was named by NHC...the inability to provide Dvorak intensity estimates because there was nothing there except a LLCC (ok -- that was hysterical -- when has "shear" ever prevented Dvorak analysis, or, in the case of a subtropical cyclone, H-P technique)...just pick your favorite. Maybe NHC will quietly change it to subtropical in the post-season analysis.

Just to clarify, my take on Barry was that it tried to become tropical -- obs showed that, although they also showed the extratropical nature of the disturbance -- but there wasn't persistent convection near the center, so it never developed, and did not fit the NHC definition of a TC. Development was not anticipated -- initially because of the shear over the GOM, then because of the enroaching upper low. The distant convection was baroclinic in nature, and winds were generated from the pressure gradient between ridging in the western ATL and the large mid/upper low/trough that had dropped into the western Gulf, moved east, and mowed over the developing surface low.

I wouldn't have been surprised if it had been started as a subtropical storm, given the recon obs, and then switched fairly quickly to extratropical, but who ever heard of a tropical storm with a totally exposed low level circulation? Digging around, the closest images I could find that matched with Barry, indicated it was a frontal wave (extratropical).

And is the situation with the generate-fear-and-hype media so out of control, that Barry was named, rather than risk some kind of media backlash, because no one believes that Florida residents can handle some minor coastal flooding, significant rain, and 25 mph winds, without framing it as a tropical storm? Or is it that no one thought they would prepare adequately unless it was called a tropical storm? Too bad for those who really did think they experienced one, because those folks will be caught unprepared when the genuine article shows up.

* * * * * * *

And did everyone notice that Bill Proenza signed his name to the Saturday morning advisory package after Avila's?


More Fancy Footwork: At least the overnight advisory struggled trying to characterize Barry as a tropical cyclone, "DATA...INDCIATE THAT BARRY HAS MINIMAL CENTRAL CONVECTION AT THIS TIME." That is, there is none at all. And it gets better, "DUE TO THE SHEAR...THERE ARE NO SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES." That would be due to the complete absence of convection as well.

What follows is a description of an extratropical cyclone, with convection driven by baroclinic, not barotropic, forces: "BARRY IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...THE STORM SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC." It is already embedded in the flow, with the low level circulation a distorted oval. "WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BARRY IS INTERACTING WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE STORM CENTER. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS VERY DIFLUENT." No kidding. "ONE CHANGE...IS TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW BARRY TO CONTINUE AS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM." But it is already extratropical.

Here's a recent NOAA satellite image, showing the line of convection along the frontal boundary (notice the difference in dewpoints behind and ahead of the front):

TS Barry


And a NWS recent radar image showing the line of convection, below. After the cold front slides obliquely through the Tampa - St. Pete area, residents there will have an unseasonably cool and breezy day -- definitely not the type of experience you'd associate with a tropical cyclone!

TS Barry


I see it...but I don't believe it: It reads like a tropcial storm discussion. It has all the things that you'd expect to see if talking about a real tropical storm -- but compare it with the satellite imagery. The convection associated with the cold front has morphed into a "convective band." The single good-old-college-try convective puff while moving over the Loop Current has become a "brief period of intensification," where "shear has removed most of the deep convection." However, as someone who used to blog here commented to me, "At least he is killing it." :)

Check out the dew points below:

TS Barry


This storm is going to bring lots of rain to Florida and points further north -- which begs the question, when was the last time the East Coast saw a nor'easter in June?

* * * * * * *

Friday evening astonishment: You can throw out the "deep organized convection" part of NHC's definition of a tropical cyclone -- because they did. One tiny poof of convection near the center of the low in the GOM, which was blown away as soon as it formed, and it has been named Tropical Storm Barry:


TS Barry


And don't blink, because it'll be gone that quick.

We can probably also say goodbye to any considerations of persistence of convection in future discussions, as we used to find in the discussions of previous years, such as, "OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION," and "DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED..."

The Miami NWSFO (which happens to work out of the same address as the NHC) had this to say about TS Barry, in the area discussion: "THE HIGHLY SHEARED AND ASYMMETRIC DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS BARRY."
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Katrina's Surge

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41. SteveS1954
5:22 PM GMT on June 05, 2007
RE: Posted By: JRod37 at 4:38 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

There seems to be a clique at the NHC who are aligned with Curry et al. They are out to "prove" that AGW is causing a higher number of TCs over time. I suspect they are cooking the books to "prove" their theory.
40. SteveS1954
5:06 PM GMT on June 05, 2007
It was clear to me when this mid latitude cyclone was still well out in the Gulf that it was in no way shape or form a tropical cyclone. There was a feature hanging off to the south southwest off of it, which stretched clear down to the area off of Belize. That feature was depicted on the surface charts at the time (Friday PM, PDT) as a trough, but I'd argue it was a cold front. It certainly became a cold front later and then, was overridden by an even faster cold front. To the west of this storm was a hearty NNW flow, coming straight down from Canada.

In many ways, this storm was a continuation of the trend thus far this spring of mid latitude synoptics pushing far to the south, especially East of the Rockies. There have been repeated cold fronts and lows with occluded fronts making it far to the south. Some of these have actually progressed southward over Mexico and exited the landmass onto the Gulf well to the South.

Read the synoptic discussions for the Gulf leading up to last weekend. Mid latitude effects have dominated Gulf weather thus far this spring.
39. JRod37
4:38 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
If the definition of a tropical depression can so easily be blurred just to "keep people safe" then the meteorologists in Minnesota can be charged with criminal negligence. At least 3 storms have come through Minnesota in the past 3 months that have looked just like "Barry" with stronger sustained winds over a larger area (35-45mph). If the NHC can do this with "Barry" then "Barry" should have at least been named "Erin". We'll just blur the definition to not include the organized front and the fact that it wasn't over tropical water.

Great blog post, Margie. You're dean-on. The last thing the NHC needs is to start crying wolf.
38. fredwx
2:31 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Barry or whatever made landfall in the Tampa Bay Area where the highest winds I saw were between 20-30 mph with peak gusts between 30-42mph. It was at best a depression at that time.
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
37. HIEXPRESS
2:12 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
When they named it I was calling it "future remnant low / tropical blizzard Barry. Still, I can see the necessity of naming it. We were coming up on a weekend & you know there were weekend warriors fueling up their boats to head out from the West Coast of Florida - "weather be dammed". So, here's your sign... At the time Barry was named, the short-term trend was toward an unexpected intensification, and although continuation of this trend was also unexpected, would the public have been better off with a surprise strong TS or Cat 1 that close to landfall?
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
36. Skyepony (Mod)
3:06 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
CorkyBoyd~ Yes many companies have stopped or limited windstorm coverage, but that means if you can't get one of those policies, you can't get a morgage unless you get citizens or another company. People don't have citizens for wind coverage and State Farm for fire insurance. So your reasoning makes no sence. If anything the govt would hessitate to name, like when they're out at sea so they could say, see less storms so odds are you could make tons 'o money in FL like back in the '80s.

& though this could have easily been called a STS at the time of naming, it was building convection at the center at the time. It could have gone either way. STS or TS it's a technicallity...

Or is it that no one thought they would prepare adequately unless it was called a tropical storm? Too bad for those who really did think they experienced one, because those folks will be caught unprepared when the genuine article shows up.

We had sustained 45mph winds here in Melbourne, FL that night as a mesocyclone passed over. Barry caused pockets of people from south of me all the way through AL & GA to lose power, over 23,000 in FL, just about everyone got to pick up a few limbs around here. We had a few traffic lights & signs damaged in this area. A few houses were destroyed in the state due to a tornado. Pretty much on par for a weak TS or a STS. More wind than Ernesto. I don't understand why you think calling this a TS would make people unprepared for the next "real" TS, made sure I had water on hand & was prepared for a brief but unlikely power outage & I would for the next.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41188
35. CorkyBoyd
9:07 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Here in Florida, insurance coverage for wind damages from named storms is treated differently than unnamed storms. Most of the major insurance companies have stopped writing insurance for "windstorm coverage", e.g. wind damages from named storms, leaving it up to the state operated Citizens.

I suspect there was pressure from the majors to classify Andrea and Barry as named storms for this reason. They don't weant to take the hit. Look for more cheapening of the named storm category.
34. OSHNBLU
6:49 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Margie...thanks for keeping it real...as always...
Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 117 Comments: 5225
33. Gatorxgrrrl
2:14 AM GMT on June 03, 2007
MK -LOL - you crack me up!!!
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 15605
32. EmmyRose
8:07 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
egads didn't mean to cause a ruckus
each storm brings its own misery
...
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76406
31. cieldumort
7:43 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
02L (Barry) at 40 knots

Barry, just prior to being named. B is for "Better Banding" ;)

Really, the main differences between the two are that Barry has been in a highly-sheared environment, and has been progressively transitioning into an extratropical entity - as are many of the TCs which head northeast, up from the southeast.

Conversely, Allison had comparatively little shear to contend with, and just sat in place, once inland, as do many of the TCs which make landfall in or near Texas.



Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 39
30. ihave27windows
7:08 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
1900's point was that prior to landfall, **Tropical Storm** Allison -looked- "as bad or worse" (ie: less than Tropical) than Barry, on satellite

I didn't miss his point, I simply disagreed.


Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14949
29. sngalla
7:07 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
We had a cool front slide thru after Wilma hit.
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
28. cieldumort
6:41 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Emmy wrote:
"1900 - Allison was the costliest TS for us
The downtown area was literally washed out, the medical center compromised....oh it was bad."

ER, and anyone else, that's not because Allison was somehow more of a "real" Tropical Storm than Barry. Frankly the two of them prior to landfall are very similar animals.

Allison caused record-setting flooding and death -only- because it essentially sat, and sat, and sat in place for hours and hours, and then days, and days, and days, all the while it continued to have an increasingly healthy fetch of inflow from a very warm and moist Gulf of Mexico.

Conversely, Barry is scooting along to the north-northeast at an increasingly fast clip, and about to have his warm moisture source cut off (as he transitions more and more into an extratropical storm, I should add).

1900's point was that prior to landfall, **Tropical Storm** Allison -looked- "as bad or worse" (ie: less than Tropical) than Barry, on satellite (and other sources, if you care to go back through the record).
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 39
27. EmmyRose
3:17 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
1900 - Allison was the costliest TS for us
The downtown area was literally washed out, the medical center compromised....oh it was bad......:-(
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76406
26. Patrap
2:03 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
damage estimates in Harris County alone (includes the Houston Metro area) have surpassed $4.88 billion, which is more than two times that caused by the last major hurricane to strike the Upper Texas Coast, Alicia, in 1983.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133270
25. Patrap
2:02 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Allison June 5-9 2001 Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133270
24. ihave27windows
2:01 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Sorry 1900, I don't agree.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14949
23. Patrap
2:00 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Allison killed a dozen and did Billions in Damage.No comparison here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133270
22. 1900hurricane
1:59 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Yea, but Allsion as a storm looked as bad, if not worse, than Barry as a storm.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11908
21. EmmyRose
1:43 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
whoppee....
Hey Margie - were there others years that hurricanes or ts happened on June 1st and what kind of season overall did they have?
Hope all is well with you.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76406
20. weatherguy03
1:39 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Great analysis on Barry Margie. I couldn't agree more!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
19. ihave27windows
1:12 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Allison

Allison, as a depression looked better than Barry as a storm.
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14949
18. Patrap
1:01 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
The dry air and shear whooped it good ..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133270
17. MargieKieper
12:31 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Morning, everyone -- glad to see some spirited discussion on TS Barry!
Member Since: June 15, 2006 Posts: 181 Comments: 355
16. TayTay
9:10 AM GMT on June 02, 2007
I'm glad I'm not the only one unconvinced by this storm. I do not see a tropical cyclone at all.

And there's a good looking storm forming in the Indian.

15. cieldumort
5:25 AM GMT on June 02, 2007
Sou'easter, Margie. Sou'easter.


Just hamming things up for ya'! ;)

With regard to Barry's designation as a tropical cyclone, for the same reasons Weatherboykris already mentioned above, and more, I agree with their call.

Here are just a few of the others:
It is - scientifically- reasonable, if not mostly correct, to have classified 92L as a *Tropical* Storm. Calling it subtropical would have been just plainly incorrect. Leaving it handled by the High Seas Forecast, as they have with other arguably marginal systems, would not make any sense, either, as it was hardly a "high seas" feature.

Additionally, "persistent, organized, deep convection" is really a highly *subjective* qualifier, and one which I would suggest has been overused as a reason for NHC to take their sweet time with classifying systems in the past, that were really already "there." (Usually it's been those which did not present any imminent threat to land, especially populated land, which I submit have sometimes even gone days with nothing more than an Invest tag on them, when some of these really would have been flagged for more had they been much closer to home).

Clearly, in this case, leisure time was not something they had much of.





Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 39
14. mobal
1:54 AM GMT on June 02, 2007
Insurance companies say thanks....$$$$$
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 482 Comments: 5333
13. weatherboykris
1:24 AM GMT on June 02, 2007
It's not trying to justify anything.This is a TS,and they should've named it.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
12. OSHNBLU
1:22 AM GMT on June 02, 2007
Margie...as always love your take...

Could it be the NHC is trying to justify #'s, funding and staffing?
Or erring on the side of caution?
Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 117 Comments: 5225
11. weatherboykris
1:19 AM GMT on June 02, 2007
They were all in 1996?LOL!
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
10. KoritheMan
12:41 AM GMT on June 02, 2007
It's not that surprising..... Alberto, Arlene, and Arthur in 1996 developed in the face of strong shear.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 603 Comments: 21852
9. aquak9
12:21 AM GMT on June 02, 2007
I imagine folks at NHC were slamming their open palms on thier respective desks, tossing sheets of paper up in the air, not believing this.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 27671
8. LowerCal
12:16 AM GMT on June 02, 2007
Maybe this is a case of the course of least regret overruling a strict definition. What's the point of issuing warnings after everyone has gone to bed? In addition to the science the NHC has a mission of public safety.

Skye, I was typing while you were posting, lol.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 9692
7. Skyepony (Mod)
12:15 AM GMT on June 02, 2007
Yes the standard, old school definition wasn't 100% met. But this most likely will make landfall within 24 hrs & with the winds what they are along with the temperature & the fact the highest winds are close to the center, seems they made the right move to get people in the path to quickly hurl their patio furniture in to the pool.

& we've seen plenty of naked tropical swirls in the past.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41188
6. weatherboykris
12:01 AM GMT on June 02, 2007
Posted By: MargieKieper at 11:39 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Lou, the conditions for a tropical storm were not met.

In order to name it as a subtropical storm, then a different set of conditions would have had to be met -- and that is a separate issue entirely.


Definition:
Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).


I suppose you could've made a case against it being tropical earlier this afternoon,but looking at recent radar images it does have an organized band to the east of the center.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
5. 1900hurricane
12:00 AM GMT on June 02, 2007
Anyway, Barry has defied all expectations thus far. It kinda makes you want to root for the underdog storm in my opinion.

In regaurds to Barry's structure, I've only seen one other storm with similar structure that was stronger than Barry currently is, and that was Allison with 60 mph winds.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11908
4. 1900hurricane
11:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Go Barry Go! Woooooooooohooooooooooo!!!!!!

Ok. I'm done.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11908
3. outrocket
11:40 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
one word...Amazed:)
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11020
2. MargieKieper
11:39 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Lou, the conditions for a tropical storm were not met.

In order to name it as a subtropical storm, then a different set of conditions would have had to be met -- and that is a separate issue entirely.
Member Since: June 15, 2006 Posts: 181 Comments: 355
1. louastu
11:36 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
It would have recieved a name whether that burst of convection had developed near the center or not. The only effect that burst of convection (along with the fact that the strongest winds were found near the center) had on things was that it was called a "tropical storm" instead of a "subtropical storm".

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