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By: MargieKieper , 11:24 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Is there anyone who cannot wait to forget "TS Barry?"
This is a pleasant sight:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Putting aside the unwelcome hype and "cry wolf" potential, maybe it's best to just remember the ROFL moments associated with this chapter of the Atlantic 2007 hurricane season: that initial just-home-from-work oh-they-didn't! moment when seeing the word "Barry" in the inbox (after which I generated a blog entry in record time -- five minutes -- then got on the phone with the equally-unbelieving Steve Gregory, where we hypered each other into a frenzy)...the comment by NWSFO Miami in their local discussion when Barry was named by NHC...the inability to provide Dvorak intensity estimates because there was nothing there except a LLCC (ok -- that was hysterical -- when has "shear" ever prevented Dvorak analysis, or, in the case of a subtropical cyclone, H-P technique)...just pick your favorite. Maybe NHC will quietly change it to subtropical in the post-season analysis.
Just to clarify, my take on Barry was that it tried to become tropical -- obs showed that, although they also showed the extratropical nature of the disturbance -- but there wasn't persistent convection near the center, so it never developed, and did not fit the NHC definition of a TC. Development was not anticipated -- initially because of the shear over the GOM, then because of the enroaching upper low. The distant convection was baroclinic in nature, and winds were generated from the pressure gradient between ridging in the western ATL and the large mid/upper low/trough that had dropped into the western Gulf, moved east, and mowed over the developing surface low.
I wouldn't have been surprised if it had been started as a subtropical storm, given the recon obs, and then switched fairly quickly to extratropical, but who ever heard of a tropical storm with a totally exposed low level circulation? Digging around, the closest images I could find that matched with Barry, indicated it was a frontal wave (extratropical).
And is the situation with the generate-fear-and-hype media so out of control, that Barry was named, rather than risk some kind of media backlash, because no one believes that Florida residents can handle some minor coastal flooding, significant rain, and 25 mph winds, without framing it as a tropical storm? Or is it that no one thought they would prepare adequately unless it was called a tropical storm? Too bad for those who really did think they experienced one, because those folks will be caught unprepared when the genuine article shows up.
* * * * * * *
And did everyone notice that Bill Proenza signed his name to the Saturday morning advisory package after Avila's?
More Fancy Footwork: At least the overnight advisory struggled trying to characterize Barry as a tropical cyclone, "DATA...INDCIATE THAT BARRY HAS MINIMAL CENTRAL CONVECTION AT THIS TIME." That is, there is none at all. And it gets better, "DUE TO THE SHEAR...THERE ARE NO SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES." That would be due to the complete absence of convection as well.
What follows is a description of an extratropical cyclone, with convection driven by baroclinic, not barotropic, forces: "BARRY IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...THE STORM SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC." It is already embedded in the flow, with the low level circulation a distorted oval. "WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BARRY IS INTERACTING WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE STORM CENTER. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS VERY DIFLUENT." No kidding. "ONE CHANGE...IS TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW BARRY TO CONTINUE AS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM." But it is already extratropical.
Here's a recent NOAA satellite image, showing the line of convection along the frontal boundary (notice the difference in dewpoints behind and ahead of the front):
And a NWS recent radar image showing the line of convection, below. After the cold front slides obliquely through the Tampa - St. Pete area, residents there will have an unseasonably cool and breezy day -- definitely not the type of experience you'd associate with a tropical cyclone!
I see it...but I don't believe it: It reads like a tropcial storm discussion. It has all the things that you'd expect to see if talking about a real tropical storm -- but compare it with the satellite imagery. The convection associated with the cold front has morphed into a "convective band." The single good-old-college-try convective puff while moving over the Loop Current has become a "brief period of intensification," where "shear has removed most of the deep convection." However, as someone who used to blog here commented to me, "At least he is killing it." :)
Check out the dew points below:
This storm is going to bring lots of rain to Florida and points further north -- which begs the question, when was the last time the East Coast saw a nor'easter in June?
* * * * * * *
Friday evening astonishment: You can throw out the "deep organized convection" part of NHC's definition of a tropical cyclone -- because they did. One tiny poof of convection near the center of the low in the GOM, which was blown away as soon as it formed, and it has been named Tropical Storm Barry:
And don't blink, because it'll be gone that quick.
We can probably also say goodbye to any considerations of persistence of convection in future discussions, as we used to find in the discussions of previous years, such as, "OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION," and "DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED..."
The Miami NWSFO (which happens to work out of the same address as the NHC) had this to say about TS Barry, in the area discussion: "THE HIGHLY SHEARED AND ASYMMETRIC DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS BARRY."
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