Comments on 5/16 Severe Weather Event

By: MAweatherboy1, 11:51 PM GMT on May 17, 2015

Good evening. Today's blog is a bit of a new one for me, a review of yesterday's severe weather event. In their initial Day 1 outlook, the SPC issued a large moderate risk area, spanning through southern Nebraska, central Kansas, and central Oklahoma, with adjacent enhanced risk areas.


Figure 1: SPC Day 1 Convective outlook for 5/16, valid at 12z.

The entire moderate risk was associated with 15% hatched tornado probabilities, a usual ...

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

By: MAweatherboy1, 9:03 PM GMT on March 17, 2015

Happy Spring! It’s that time of year again: time for predictions to start being made for the upcoming 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and that is exactly what I’m doing in this entry. Without further ado, I’ll jump right in.
The 2015 Atlantic season will begin on June 1 of this year and run through November 30, with a climatological peak from mid-August through late September, when the vast majority of tropical storms and hurricanes have formed througho...

New England Fall/Winter 2014-2015

By: MAweatherboy1, 10:38 PM GMT on October 17, 2014

Hello all. It's been about two months since I've posted a blog, as I have been busily working through my first semester of college here at Plymouth State University in Plymouth, New Hampshire. The tropics are active this evening, with Gonzalo lashing Bermuda, Ana strengthening near Hawaii and a new tropical depression in the East Pacific. This activity is all due in large part to a strong MJO pulse that has moved from the central Pacific and into the Atlantic, sp...

Updated: 10:51 PM GMT on October 17, 2014

Is the Atlantic's Active Era Over?

By: MAweatherboy1, 1:26 PM GMT on August 18, 2014

Good morning. My topic today goes a bit outside of the usual individual storm forecasting I do here whenever I feel the urge to. It is now mid-August, and we are approaching the climatological peak of the 2014 North Atlantic hurricane season. We have so far had just two storms, Arthur and Bertha, both of which also became hurricanes, with Arthur by far the more impressive of the two, a strong early season Category 2 storm. However, we have been mired in a slow p...

A Check of the Global Tropics

By: MAweatherboy1, 9:21 PM GMT on July 09, 2014

Good evening. We are now close to a third of the way through July, and that means we are moving closer to the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The basin is currently quiet, as is the neighboring East Pacific since the somewhat surprising dissipation of Fausto earlier today, so I think now is a good time to take a look at the bigger picture on where we stand globally for tropical cyclone activity in 2014, and where we are heading in the next fe...

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About MAweatherboy1

Average 19 year old weather nerd. Freshman at Plymouth State University, majoring in meteorology, with the goal of becoming a professional forecaster.

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