Average 19 year old weather nerd. Sophomore @ Plymouth State University, majoring in meteorology, with the goal of becoming a professional forecaster
By: MAweatherboy1 , 12:40 PM GMT on February 12, 2012
I am very excited to be writing my first blog. Over the past few days I've been tracking cyclones Jasmine and Giovanna in the Southern Hemisphere. Jasmine is currently meandering in the waters of the South Pacific, barely hanging on to tropical storm strength. It is actually forecast to strengthen slightly by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, though I am skeptical of that as it has been really beaten down for the past couple days. Even if it does strengthen, Jasmine does not pose a threat to land areas.
Meanwhile, cyclone Giovanna has been traversing the waters of the Southern Indian Ocean. Giovanna's intensity has been very challenging to forecast. Shortly after developing, it underwent a very impressive case of rapid intensification, and peaked with sustained winds estimated at 140 mph. During this time the storm developed a classic pinhole eye, and even drew comparisons to Hurricane Wilma. I personally found there to be a striking similarity in the structure of the storms. After going through rapid intensification, Giovanna then underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, during which its pinhole eye collapsed and was replaced by a larger one. Its intensity has sinced decreased considerably as it has struggled to get its act back together, evidenced by a slightly irregular cloud pattern and a fairly ragged eye that has not been able to clear out. It is now just hanging on to minimal major hurricane strength, but it is still forecast to strengthen some before landfall. It has very favorable environmental conditions, so if it can get its internal structure in order I see no reason why it can't be near or a Cat 4 intensity by landfall. Regardless, this is a powerful storm and should be treated as such by residents of Madagascar. Thank you for reading my first entry! It's not great, I know, but I will get better! Have a great week!
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