Tropical Depression 3-E Forms

By: MAweatherboy1 , 10:41 PM GMT on June 09, 2014

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Good evening. For the third time this year, we are tracking a tropical cyclone in the East Pacific basin. The Atlantic is currently quiet with no development expected for the next week or so, at least. Our newest system in the East Pacific is Tropical Depression 3-E, which has formed from an area of low pressure, invest 94E, that has been tracked for the past few days. I will format this blog in the same new format that I used for my previous entry. Enjoy!
Current Storm Information (From the National Hurricane Center)
Location: Approximately 160 miles S of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, or 15.4N/102.0W
Wind: Estimated at 35mph, based on a compromise of satellite measurements
Pressure: Estimated at 1006mb
Movement: Due west, at about 5mph


Figure 1: Tropical Depression 3-E.

Official National Hurricane Center Forecast:


Figure 2: Official NHC forecast.

INIT 09/2100Z 15.4N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 15.5N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.6N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.9N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.6N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

Model Discussion:

As noted by the NHC discussions, global models are in generally great agreement on a WNW movement for 3-E for the next five days. In terms of intensity, there is a bit of discrepancy. The ECMWF and GFS are in fairly close agreement on their intensity forecasts, with the ECMWF perhaps a bit more aggressive, but both suggest a high end tropical storm or low end hurricane. The SHIPS intensity model as well as the HWRF, which has performed well in the East Pacific this year, are also similar to these forecasts. The GFDL model, as usual, is much more aggressive and shows 3-E becoming a strong hurricane. The CMC model is uncharacteristically unenthusiastic about 3-E’s future, showing limited strengthening.


Figure 3: HWRF forecast for 3-E in 66 hours, bringing it to minimal hurricane strength.

My Discussion/Forecast

As is sometimes the case with East Pacific cyclones, where steering currents are often more simple than Atlantic steering currents, 3-E’s future track should be fairly easy to forecast, at least for the next five days. 3-E will track west and soon WNW along the southern periphery of a strong ridge to its north. With time the motion may bend closer to NW than WNW, but an average heading of about 290 degrees should prevail for the next five days. As you will see, my forecast is quite close to the forecast of the NHC, and in good agreement with most of the global models. Inherently, the intensity forecast is a bit trickier. Currently, 3-E is in an environment of low shear and warm waters, with some hindrance from dry air. This will likely be the story of 3-E’s existence for the next 4 days or so. Shear will remain low and waters will remain plenty warm for that period. Beyond four days water temperatures will drop off and weakening will begin. The SHIPS rapid intensification index is quite high for 3-E. However, while this is a possibility, I do not anticipate rapid strengthening of 3-E due largely to a significant amount of dry air it will have to contend with. Currently, despite a seemingly healthy satellite appearance, 3-E has several problems, including a slightly elongated circulation, as shown by ASCAT, and a lack of vertical alignment between its low and mid level circulations. In addition, it has ingested a significant amount of dry air from the mountains of Mexico, as evidenced by the pronounced dry slot on its western side. While 3-E will move away from Mexico, the source of its current dry air problems, there is plenty of dry, stable air ahead of it over the open ocean, so this will act to inhibit significant strengthening. Because I think it will likely take much of the next 24 hours to resolve its current early stage problems, and because of the dry air in its path, my intensity forecast is a bit below that of the NHC, peaking 3-E just below hurricane status at 70mph, though a slight increase to hurricane strength is certainly a distinct possibility.


Figure 4: My forecast for 3-E. This is NOT an official forecast of any forecasting agency, it is only my personal forecast. For the official forecast refer to the NHC forecast. On my graphic, the lines go in 24 hour increments, where I give my predicted intensity for the system at that time, the strength of the system on the Saffir Simpson Scale (in this case it is all tropical storm), and in parentheses at the end I give the NHC intensity forecast for the same time.

Overall Forecast Confidence:
Track: High
Intensity: Moderate

Land Impacts:
* Rainfall for the area of the Mexican coast currently being affected for the next 24 hours or so. Tropical storm watches and warnings are not anticipated.
* Enhanced surf and rip currents along the Mexican coast for the next several days.

Thank you as always for reading! I hope you all enjoy the rest of our week!

-MAweatherboy1

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7. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:21 PM GMT on July 09, 2014
MAweatherboy1 has created a new entry.
6. Astrometeor
7:08 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting KoritheMan:

...He stated why. Dry air/subsidence.


What about Amanda, Kori? The original prediction was as bad as the 2013 season predictions.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10364
5. MAweatherboy1
10:37 AM GMT on June 10, 2014
Thanks for dropping by everyone :)

So far, my low intensity forecast is holding up, and the NHC has trended slightly in my direction, so we're matching up pretty close now. I'm seeing some signs of organization in the past couple hours, but that was to be expected.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7849
4. KoritheMan
9:08 AM GMT on June 10, 2014

Quoting 1. Astrometeor:

Why is the predicted peak for TD3-E so low? No expectations for real intensification, to, say a Cat. 2 hurricane?

Amanda, for example, also had a poor initial forecast, despite the fact the girl was sitting in a bath of warm temperatures. Here's Amanda's initial chart:

INIT 22/2100Z 10.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 10.5N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 10.8N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 11.1N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 11.4N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 12.0N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

A peak of only 65 mph? Why so low?

----

Not attacking you MA, I just want to know why are forecasters so conservative with the Pacific basin storms?
...He stated why. Dry air/subsidence.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 588 Comments: 20881
2. nigel20
5:55 AM GMT on June 10, 2014
Wonderful post, MA! I hope that you'll have a great week as well!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8229
1. Astrometeor
1:21 AM GMT on June 10, 2014
Why is the predicted peak for TD3-E so low? No expectations for real intensification, to, say a Cat. 2 hurricane?

Amanda, for example, also had a poor initial forecast, despite the fact the girl was sitting in a bath of warm temperatures. Here's Amanda's initial chart:

INIT 22/2100Z 10.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 10.5N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 10.8N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 11.1N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 11.4N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 12.0N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

A peak of only 65 mph? Why so low?

----

Not attacking you MA, I just want to know why are forecasters so conservative with the Pacific basin storms?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10364

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About MAweatherboy1

Average 18 year old weather nerd. Freshman at Plymouth State University, majoring in meteorology, with the goal of becoming a professional forecaster.