Tracking Storms, Severe and Tropical

By: MAweatherboy1 , 12:23 AM GMT on March 02, 2012

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The weather is relatively quiet this evening in the US. That will not be the case tomorrow however as a significant outbreak of severe weather is expected across the East Central area of the country tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a moderate threat in its outlook for tomorrow, which includes much of Tennesse and Kentucky as well as northern Alabama and Mississippi and southern Indiana and Ohio. Surrounding this area is a large slight risk area, which shows what a large area is at risk for severe weather tomorrow. One thing that especially worries me is that storms that develop tomorrow are expected to be more supercellular than linear, creating an increased threat for poweful, long tracked tornadoes. In addition to strong torandoes, large hail,thunderstorm winds to 80 mph and deadly lightning will be significant threats. This impending outbreak has even received comparisons to the 1974 outbreak. While I don't think it will be quite this disastrous, this does clearly convey the message that this is a dangerous situation. The timeframe of the storms should be late afternoon, evening, and into the overnight hours. Anyone in the path of these dangerous storms should pay close attention to weather bulletins issued.



In the tropics, the Southern Hemisphere remains somewhat active. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued its 3rd and final advisory on Tropical Cyclone 15 today. This storm almost lasted as long as the West Pac's mighty TD One. While never expected to be a monster, TC 15 was expected to last longer than this, yet another example of our inability to forecast the intensity of tropical cyclones.
Tropical Cyclone Irina is currently traversing the Mozambique Channel with 65 mph winds. It is expected to reach minimal cyclone strength before weakening prior to landfall in Southern Mozambique. It is providing some squally weather to Madagascar right now, not what the island needs as it rebuilds after Giovanna. There are no other areas being watched for development right now, but the JTWC is giving the remnants of TC 15 a medium chance of redeveloping.
There's only three months left...
Thanks for reading, and enjoy the rest of your week!

TC 15's remnants, showing a big ball of convection but a poor convective pattern.


TC Irina. It has a small area of convection but fairly well developed outflow.

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2. MAweatherboy1
11:38 AM GMT on March 02, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:
Good post MA. Tc Irina also has had a microwave eye, unbelievably:D

I am included in the slight risk area, over in NC :)

You may see some severe storms today SPL... Not as bad as a little further west of you though. I usually have to wait until May or June before I start getting storms.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
1. SPLbeater
2:44 AM GMT on March 02, 2012
Good post MA. Tc Irina also has had a microwave eye, unbelievably:D

I am included in the slight risk area, over in NC :)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488

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About MAweatherboy1

Average 18 year old weather nerd. Freshman at Plymouth State University, majoring in meteorology, with the goal of becoming a professional forecaster.

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