Storm Train Lined Up For The East

By: MAweatherboy1 , 12:59 AM GMT on December 23, 2012

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Good evening. I'm watching the potential for a few storms on the East Coast in the next 1-2 weeks. The first event will be occurring Christmas Eve night into early Christmas day. I'm hesitant to call this a storm as it will really be no more than a weak area of low pressure drifting off the East Coast and strengthening slightly as it pulls away from New England. Models have been a bit variable on the track and intensity of the system. The Euro has generally shown a warmer, weaker, more northerly solution than the GFS. However, tonight's 18z GFS run came in north of previous runs, and it was also weaker. This implies a warmer solution with very light precipitation and limited snowfall accumulation if any. The NAM has also shown some large variations, and I am hesitant to trust anything it says. Overall, I lean towards a weak low pressure system traveling just south of the CT and RI coasts, providing southern New England a light precipitation event, but perhaps enough to give some a white Christmas, defined as one inch or more of snow on the ground. This is what my local NWS is thinking:



I actually disagree with them quite a bit. My map is shown below. I realize its sloppy, I just threw it together real quick using MS Paint, but you get the picture:



The next storm will come in not long after as we get into the Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe. This is a real storm, and will provide significant impacts for many. At this point, there remain large uncertainties on the track. With the exception of its 0z run last night, the Euro has been pretty steady forecasting the storm to pass through western and central New England before pushing offshore, providing rain to most of the NE with snow well inland. The other models such as the GFS had been showing a more easterly track, which a snowier solution. I have been hesitant to buy these solutions considering the NAO is going positive, which makes it very difficult for storm to bomb out off the NE coast. Indeed, most 12z and 18z guidance, particularly the GFS, has trended west. With the Euro and GFS now in decent agreement, I have fair confidence on the general setup of this storm. I reserve the right to make major changes if the models flip flop again, but here's my early thinking. Again, I know its sloppy and feel free to laugh at me but you get the point:



The potential exists for another storm around the 30th or 31st, but it's just too early to get into any details regarding that storm at this point.

I hope this blog was semi-informative. I'll be keeping the comments section updated with new information in the coming days. Merry Christmas!!!!!!

MAweatherboy1

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68. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:42 PM GMT on January 01, 2013
MAweatherboy1 has created a new entry.
67. MAweatherboy1
7:57 PM GMT on December 30, 2012
11" here, most since January 2011. I'm lovin' it!!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
66. stansweather
12:12 PM GMT on December 30, 2012
Final Total is just about 1 foot here.Rain guage came in with .90 liquid.
Member Since: December 18, 2001 Posts: 12 Comments: 25
65. GTOSnow
6:02 AM GMT on December 30, 2012
Had to be at least 10" at my place in Sutton, I had to go plow my work in Smithfield RI and they are about the same. I'll get a good measurment in the am! Glad the storm came a little west!!
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 223
64. stansweather
2:07 AM GMT on December 30, 2012
Very Happy man here! Storm winding down soon with 10" on he ground now.Good to see a all snow storm for a change!temps been dropping! around 26 now.Snow blower will get a workout in the mourning.PS Heated rain Gauge here has around .75"
Member Since: December 18, 2001 Posts: 12 Comments: 25
63. MAweatherboy1
1:53 AM GMT on December 30, 2012
It's been a struggle to change the rain over to snow at the coast, and in many areas it hasn't changed. Too much west track and more importantly too much east wind off an unusually warm ocean. Even here just off the NE tip of RI the temperature has edged up to near 31F, although we're still getting moderate/occasionally heavy snow, and I highly doubt we'll change over here. Already signs of the wind turning more north, I expect temps to dip in the next 2 hours, coastal areas will change to snow, and while you will fall short of original expectations, you can still expect 2-4" on the east coast with 1-3" on the Cape. I feel bad for snowlovers in these places though, this was supposed to be your storm, it was so close.

I really am loving it here though, good to see my yard blanketed in snow again, it's been too long. And good too see most of it will stick around for the week. Looks like seasonably cool/slightly below average for the first half of the week, then a polar blast late week.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
62. MAweatherboy1
12:13 AM GMT on December 30, 2012
Closing in on 4" here, everything right on track, heaviest of the storm is on us now, improvements begin in 3-5 hours southwest to northeast.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
61. MAweatherboy1
10:13 PM GMT on December 29, 2012
Quoting stansweather:
NWS is now putting us in the 9+ range!So far 4" with heavy snow falling.

Yep, we're in it now, NWS is noting this as a short duration but high impact event, the next 6 hours will be rough.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
60. stansweather
10:02 PM GMT on December 29, 2012
NWS is now putting us in the 9+ range!So far 4" with heavy snow falling.
Member Since: December 18, 2001 Posts: 12 Comments: 25
59. GTOSnow
8:39 PM GMT on December 29, 2012
Looks like I am not to far from you, I am half way between Worcester and the RI border right off of 146. I am hoping to get close to a foot, but we'll see.
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 223
58. MAweatherboy1
8:11 PM GMT on December 29, 2012
First moderate band moving through my area (just off the NE tip of RI, right in the jackpot zone )... this will continue for 30-45mins and keep pushing north, probably throwing a quick half inch/ inch down, but the main event is still a couple hours away. Note the area of darker blues and a few greens at and just south of the little red marker (my house), followed by a lull south of it that will come before the main event:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
57. MAweatherboy1
7:58 PM GMT on December 29, 2012
Trends are favoring a bigger event, not going to update my snow map but I wouldn't be surprised at all if some areas pick up a foot of snow. Most likely location for that I think is northern and central Rhode Island into areas SW of Boston, close to the RI border. This storm is looking nice and juicy! If it were to be moving slower we'd be getting a true monster Northeast storm, but still a good size event as it stands, do not travel if you don't have to between 6 and 12 this evening/tonight, it will be awful on the roads with 1-2" per hour snowfall rates, that's when we get the bulk of the accumulations. Plows can't keep up with that.

Light snow here now, temp. down 2 degrees in a little over two hours, it should continue to drop slowly. Rain/mix still looks likely at coast, especially Cape.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
56. GTOSnow
7:33 PM GMT on December 29, 2012
Started up quick here in Sutton, MA! Hoping for a decent storm out of this. Thanks for the blog!
Member Since: February 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 223
55. MAweatherboy1
7:13 PM GMT on December 29, 2012
First flakes are flying here!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
54. MAweatherboy1
5:33 PM GMT on December 29, 2012
Quoting stansweather:
Things are looking alittle better!NWS has just uped us to a winter storm warning1Rader is filling in nicely with yellows growing to the s-sw.Heres hoping for a good thing

Radar definitely looking better! It's a a little dry though, dew point down at 25 at my house, the precip may initially have a tough time getting going but everything appears on track, the heavy stuff should start up around/just after sunset.

Also looks like the 12z CMC and UKMET were a little stronger with more QPF over us. Euro will be out soon.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
53. stansweather
5:28 PM GMT on December 29, 2012
Things are looking alittle better!NWS has just uped us to a winter storm warning1Rader is filling in nicely with yellows growing to the s-sw.Heres hoping for a good thing
Member Since: December 18, 2001 Posts: 12 Comments: 25
52. MAweatherboy1
3:46 PM GMT on December 29, 2012
12z GFS very similar to 6z, as would be expected this close to the event, maybe a touch lower on snow totals, it's really getting to be too late in the game for global models, but we'll see what the CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF say in a couple hours.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
51. MAweatherboy1
3:39 PM GMT on December 29, 2012
12z NAM was higher again on snow totals, but the RPM backed off a lot and now is a good deal lower than the NAM for most areas, my confidence has actually gotten worse this morning, and while I still feel good about my map numbers right now, I am reintroducing a larger than average bust possibility, based on a combination of a gut feeling, some holes I'm seeing in the radar (although I feel they will fill in), and most importantly the fact that the main low off the Carolinas seems to be moving more east than north. A 30 mile shift west means big snowstorm. A 30 mile shift east means very little snow. GFS running now.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
50. stansweather
1:00 PM GMT on December 29, 2012
Good reporting and thanx for the info!Now its time to see what really happens!If i get at least 4" out of this ill be happy.Take care! Stan
Member Since: December 18, 2001 Posts: 12 Comments: 25
49. MAweatherboy1
11:37 AM GMT on December 29, 2012
Good morning. Guidance last night- particularly the 6z GFS and 6z NAM- actually trended a little stronger. Winter Storm Warnings are up, NWS still thinking 4-8". Here's my new, probably final snow map, this one was not easy to make, lol. General confidence is increasing, I don't see as much bust potential as I did yesterday, the real tough area to forecast is the Cape/ far SE MA due to the rain/snow line issue.



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
48. MAweatherboy1
2:29 AM GMT on December 29, 2012
It's the NAM vs. the RPM (typically very accurate short range model).

New NAM is extremely low on amounts, just a couple inches, but the RPM's last two runs have shown over a foot for a widespread area! As usual in this situation, the best solution is probably something in the middle, or maybe even a little closer to the NAM. My map still looks pretty good I think, may need to shift that 5-8 south/east a little and perhaps shave it down to 5-7, I expect 0z guidance to follow the NAM and trend towards less precip, though not as dry as the NAM.

Btw, no matter what happens here, eastern Canada is going to get absolutely crushed by this thing!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
47. stansweather
11:25 PM GMT on December 28, 2012
Yea That word Bust!Except for that one snowstorm we had back in late oct Every Attempt of getting a good amount of snow in my area has failed.I think ill shut myself off of looking at anymore models till it happens or not!disapointments have been plentyfull so far this early winter season.I feel like a redsox fan before they finally won a world series LOL.
Member Since: December 18, 2001 Posts: 12 Comments: 25
46. MAweatherboy1
10:10 PM GMT on December 28, 2012
Alright, here's the new map. I'm still a bit reluctant to increase amounts and put in 8" as the maximum, but that does seem to be the trend. Higher than normal bust potential with this storm though.



0z NAM is the next major model run- and that will be a very important run- followed by the rest of the 0z suite, also very important.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
45. MAweatherboy1
9:55 PM GMT on December 28, 2012
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
443 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...

.LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEEPENING STORM WILL PASS
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OFF
THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE MOST SNOW
EXPECTED OVER RHODE ISLAND AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

MAZ012-013-016>021-RIZ001>007-290545-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0004.121229T1500Z-121230T1200Z/
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...
NORWOOD...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH. ..FALL RIVER...
NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PRO VIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WES TERLY...
NEWPORT
443 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY/SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...ACCUMULATING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY. SNOW TAPERS
OFF TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH MAY MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT.
POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

&&

$$

WTB
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
44. MAweatherboy1
9:54 PM GMT on December 28, 2012
Quoting stansweather:
Winter advisories now up for southern half of the state and snow amounts up somewhat by the NWS office in LI.I see that parts of LI and se coastal areas snowfall predictions now down abit which tells me this storm may intensify quicker and alittle closer to us giving LI and some coastal areas some rain keeping snowfalls down abit but giving areas father north more snow.I agree with your snow predictions!heres hoping your right.Snow lover here and on top of the few inches we now have and a good spell of cold after!this snow wont melt to quick.

Ah, good to see a fellow snow lover here! Winter Storm Watches now up for some areas, this thing is trending stronger, not a blockbuster but looks like a solid several inches on the way, which as you said should stick around awhile!

18z GFS was slightly stronger than 12z, I'll have a new map out very soon.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
43. stansweather
9:42 PM GMT on December 28, 2012
Winter advisories now up for southern half of the state and snow amounts up somewhat by the NWS office in LI.I see that parts of LI and se coastal areas snowfall predictions now down abit which tells me this storm may intensify quicker and alittle closer to us giving LI and some coastal areas some rain keeping snowfalls down abit but giving areas father north more snow.I agree with your snow predictions!heres hoping your right.Snow lover here and on top of the few inches we now have and a good spell of cold after!this snow wont melt to quick.
Member Since: December 18, 2001 Posts: 12 Comments: 25
42. MAweatherboy1
8:20 PM GMT on December 28, 2012
18z NAM was slower initially with development, then showed very rapid development as the low moved north and past New England, in the end it was similar to 12z, I still don't see support for anything greater than 6".
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
41. MAweatherboy1
6:56 PM GMT on December 28, 2012
The 12z model suite didn't really show a whole lot of change, the GFS was a little stronger but CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF showed little change. Some of my local TV mets up here are calling for as much as 6-9" in parts of my 4-6" swath, I'm absolutely not buying that at this point. I am very surprised, however, that winter weather advisories have not yet been posted by the NWS, they have not been very aggressive on snow totals for this storm, but it's clear the general 1-3" they forecast this morning is basically out of the question and they need to get some advisories up for this moderate snow event.

Next model run of interest will be the 18z NAM, followed by the 18z GFS.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
40. MAweatherboy1
2:46 PM GMT on December 28, 2012
Here's my new snow map for tomorrow/tomorrow night, the trend on the models last night and this morning was a slightly stronger, more west storm.



The NWS is thinking more like 1-3", with 2-4" a possibility, but that seems low to me, though it's not at all out of the question, nor is a scenario of more widespread 6" amounts if the storm is a little stronger. 12z runs today will be interesting, the NAM's is already in, it has been trending stronger and that continued in the new run, it shows support for the solution I have in my map.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
39. MAweatherboy1
2:36 AM GMT on December 28, 2012
As of it's latest (0z) run, the NAM has come in line with the majority of the other models. As I mentioned it had been showing an unrealistically weak, completely out to sea storm, but is now on board for a grazing blow with phasing occurring too late for more than a few inches.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
38. MAweatherboy1
1:06 AM GMT on December 28, 2012
Here's my new map for the next storm. Timeframe has moved up a little, from Sat. night into early Sunday to Sat. early afternoon into early Sat. night:



The storm should take a pretty good track for snow, likely just south/east of the 40/70 benchmark, but the two pieces of energy that will eventually make this a powerful storm are probably going to phase just a little too late for a major snow event in southern New England. There is still a little bit of time for change but models have come into pretty good agreement, hopefully that holds overnight.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
37. MAweatherboy1
7:50 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Good afternoon. There remains uncertainty for the next storm Sat-Sun, the 0z Euro showed a major snowstorm, but 12z backed off considerably, the GFS has been impressively consistent with just a graze, other models are scattered about but mostly show grazes, the NAM is the weakest and most out to sea, but I don't quite buy that. I still like my map from yesterday. Also looks like some very cold air coming in for early next week regardless of what we get from this storm.

I think my map from last night's/today's storm verified pretty well, this storm didn't pull any major surprises.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
36. MAweatherboy1
1:20 AM GMT on December 27, 2012
Here's my snow map for Saturday night into Sunday. A 50-75 mile shift in storm track to the west would mean widespread 6"+, while a 50-75 mile shift east would likely mean just clouds for most and maybe flurries/snowshowers on the Cape and islands, so stay tuned for possible changes.



The NWS is thinking no more than two inches south of the Mass Pike, I went a little higher since I'm favoring a slightly more west storm track, and snow ratios will be extremely high so anything that falls will have no problem sticking.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
35. MAweatherboy1
7:55 PM GMT on December 26, 2012
Good afternoon. Here's my new, final snow map for tonight and tomorrow:

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34. MAweatherboy1
12:41 AM GMT on December 26, 2012
Surprisingly, I still feel pretty good about my forecast for tomorrow night/Thursday, models really haven't changed a whole lot so I think the map in comment 22 is pretty accurate.

My confidence is continuing to increase that Sunday will be a mainly out to sea storm, however we'll have to watch for the possibility of Cape Cod and other parts of SE MA to get clipped with a decent snow, I'll have a preliminary map for that storm out tomorrow afternoon/evening.
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33. MAweatherboy1
4:26 PM GMT on December 25, 2012
FWIW, 12z GFS came further west for Sunday, gave southern New England a decent snow event, still a lot of uncertainty. You'd drive yourself nuts if you fully believe every new model run that comes in, so for now I'll stick with mainly out to sea but that's very much up in the air.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
32. MAweatherboy1
3:28 PM GMT on December 25, 2012
Quoting stansweather:
Merry Xmass All!Very little snow here but enough to make it white.The pattern is slowly shifting the storm tracks further east and south but i still dont see enough yet to get much snow here in s new england.Late next weekend may be our last chance for a snow storm here!After that pattern will be cold but storm track looks well east for a week or two at least.

I agree, looks like a dry and possibly cold pattern beyond this weekend, Merry Xmas to you as well!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
31. stansweather
3:25 PM GMT on December 25, 2012
Merry Xmass All!Very little snow here but enough to make it white.The pattern is slowly shifting the storm tracks further east and south but i still dont see enough yet to get much snow here in s new england.Late next weekend may be our last chance for a snow storm here this year into early Jan!After that pattern will be cold but storm track looks well east for a week or two at least.
Member Since: December 18, 2001 Posts: 12 Comments: 25
30. MAweatherboy1
2:11 PM GMT on December 25, 2012
This is the NWS's latest thinking for Thursday, I agree with it for the most part although they may need to move the six inch amounts north/west some.



I picked up just a little dusting last night, still snowing lightly right now but this was really a non-event. Still uncertainty on Sunday but my confidence is slowly increasing that that system will go all or mostly out to sea.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
29. MAweatherboy1
2:41 AM GMT on December 25, 2012
Most of the guidance, even the NAM which had been most aggressive, trended weaker on tonight's/tomorrow's system, still looks like a non-event for the most part, I stand by my thoughts from comment 20. No big changes on the NAM or GFS for Thursday, I stand by comment 22.

Sunday still up in the air, 18z GFS was out to sea as many of its runs lately have been, I almost think that's the direction I'm leaning right now even though the other models keep it closer. We'll see though.

I hope everyone has a fantastic Christmas!! If you're in the tornado threat for tomorrow, keep an eye to the sky, keep your NOAA weather radio handy, and use your common sense!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
28. MAweatherboy1
6:51 PM GMT on December 24, 2012
The NWS keeps changing the snow maps, so disregard the one posted in comment 26, and really all the other ones that have been posted. The ones I post here automatically update when the NWS updates them if you just copy the URL in like I've been doing. I'll start saving, uploading, and then posting now to avoid confusion as that will prevent the map from updating. This is their latest thinking for tonight and tomorrow, it's similar to my thinking and confidence is quite high on this forecast, as it should be this close to the event:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
27. MAweatherboy1
6:47 PM GMT on December 24, 2012
12z Euro came in very similar to 0z on Thursday's storm, with snow limited to interior areas, I'm still feeling pretty good about my snow map, if anything I may have to decrease amounts further south and bring the all rain line north some as the southward trend in the models seems to be slowing and it may even reverse to a northward trend this evening and tonight.

72 hours:



96 hours:



It also continued its trend east for Sunday, now showing a pretty big snow event for southern New England. Unfortunately for snow lovers like myself I'm thinking this storm will go mostly out to sea, maybe a light snow especially in eastern areas, still a little early for amounts.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
26. MAweatherboy1
5:53 PM GMT on December 24, 2012
.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
25. MAweatherboy1
5:38 PM GMT on December 24, 2012
12z GFS was mostly out to sea for Sunday/Monday, glancing blow for southern New England:



12z CMC showed a snowstorm:



And the UKMET looks good for snow, maybe some rain at the coast:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
24. MAweatherboy1
4:05 PM GMT on December 24, 2012
GFS colder again for Thursday, brings more snow further east:



CMC is next, UKMET will follow shortly after, then the all important Euro run in a couple hours.

GFS is still running, we'll see what it does for Sunday.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
23. MAweatherboy1
3:01 PM GMT on December 24, 2012
12z NAM was rather robust on tonight/tomorrow's event, widespread 2-4 inches. Probably overdone, but we'll see what the GFS says.



NAM also came in further east for the Thursday storm.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
22. MAweatherboy1
1:20 PM GMT on December 24, 2012
Here's my new snow map for Thursday. The jackpot 18" amounts will occur in higher elevations of central/northern New England, but there is still the potential for widespread 12" amounts in lower elevations. No big changes for southern New England, rain near the coast, a slushy inch or two further inland that will be washed away when precip switches to rain, and slightly higher amounts with the potential for sleet and icing farther inland before you get into the jackpot area where it stays all or mostly snow:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
21. MAweatherboy1
11:53 AM GMT on December 24, 2012
Thursday's storm appeared to trend a bit cooler last night also, I have to review the model data a little more before I make a new snow map for that storm, but I should have one out later today.

Next Sunday's storm remains a complete mystery, although I still believe it will either be out to sea or a big hit for snow, these are the two scenarios the GFS has been suggesting. The Euro remains farther west but is steadily trending east, closer to the GFS. This storm represents the best opportunity so far for 6"+ in all of southern New England, but there's still too much uncertainty to even think about attempting a snow map.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
20. MAweatherboy1
11:49 AM GMT on December 24, 2012
No big changes last night on the Christmas storm, the biggest thing is that I introduced the possibility for some minor ice accumulation as the NWS has brought up the potential for a few hundreths of an inch of ice, not enough to cause major problems but enough to make roads slick for Christmas day travel.



Here's the NWS's latest thinking, not all that different from mine:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
19. MAweatherboy1
12:24 AM GMT on December 24, 2012
18z GFS was basically a non event for tomorrow night, warm/west for Thursday, and major snowstorm for next weekend. I don't see any changes necessary to either of my snow maps for the next two events. Still way too early to know any details about next weekend, but my confidence is pretty high there will be some kind of storm, it just depends where it goes.

Thursday storm:



Next Sunday:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786
18. MAweatherboy1
9:10 PM GMT on December 23, 2012
This is the new snow map from the NWS on the Christmas system, they've come more in line with my thinking of rain at the south coast and a general 1-2 inches elsewhere, with slightly higher amounts to the west, though I still think any 4 inch amounts would be extremely isolated:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7786

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Average 18 year old weather nerd. Freshman at Plymouth State University, majoring in meteorology, with the goal of becoming a professional forecaster.

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