Storm Train Lined Up For The East
Good evening. I'm watching the potential for a few storms on the East Coast in the next 1-2 weeks. The first event will be occurring Christmas Eve night into early Christmas day. I'm hesitant to call this a storm as it will really be no more than a weak area of low pressure drifting off the East Coast and strengthening slightly as it pulls away from New England. Models have been a bit variable on the track and intensity of the system. The Euro has generally shown a warmer, weaker, more northerly solution than the GFS. However, tonight's 18z GFS run came in north of previous runs, and it was also weaker. This implies a warmer solution with very light precipitation and limited snowfall accumulation if any. The NAM has also shown some large variations, and I am hesitant to trust anything it says. Overall, I lean towards a weak low pressure system traveling just south of the CT and RI coasts, providing southern New England a light precipitation event, but perhaps enough to give some a white Christmas, defined as one inch or more of snow on the ground. This is what my local NWS is thinking:
I actually disagree with them quite a bit. My map is shown below. I realize its sloppy, I just threw it together real quick using MS Paint, but you get the picture:
The next storm will come in not long after as we get into the Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe. This is a real storm, and will provide significant impacts for many. At this point, there remain large uncertainties on the track. With the exception of its 0z run last night, the Euro has been pretty steady forecasting the storm to pass through western and central New England before pushing offshore, providing rain to most of the NE with snow well inland. The other models such as the GFS had been showing a more easterly track, which a snowier solution. I have been hesitant to buy these solutions considering the NAO is going positive, which makes it very difficult for storm to bomb out off the NE coast. Indeed, most 12z and 18z guidance, particularly the GFS, has trended west. With the Euro and GFS now in decent agreement, I have fair confidence on the general setup of this storm. I reserve the right to make major changes if the models flip flop again, but here's my early thinking. Again, I know its sloppy and feel free to laugh at me but you get the point:
The potential exists for another storm around the 30th or 31st, but it's just too early to get into any details regarding that storm at this point.
I hope this blog was semi-informative. I'll be keeping the comments section updated with new information in the coming days. Merry Christmas!!!!!!