MAweatherboy1's Blog

This is this morning's 6z run of the GFS at 132 hours:



This is the latest run, 18z from this evening, at 108 hours:



In addition to speeding the system up quite a bit, it has also pushed it significantly further west, more in line with the Euro:



Everything definitely looks to be favoring that warm, western track.

0z NAM is in. It generally supports my thinking for the Christmas storm. It has a weak low going a little ways S of the RI/CT coast, keeps it mainly rain at the south coast which goes along with my thinking, and an inch or two of snow elsewhere. Total 72 hour precip shows we're only dealing with about a quarter inch of liquid:



Snowfall (keep in mind this includes what is already on the ground, so anything west of the MA/NY border is much higher than what this small storm will produce. Most of the snow in MA, RI, and CT that is shown on this map is from the Christmas storm itself though:



Obviously nothing crazy on this run that would cause me to drastically change the forecast, everything looks on track still.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It must be nice in MA. Get snow all the time and don't have to worry about hurricanes or many tornadoes.

Well, we used to get snow all the time. Now it's quite a struggle to get anything more than an inch or two. The storm tracks just haven't set up right.

Not worrying about tornadoes is nice though.

No big changes overnight to either system coming up. If I have time, which I should, I'll have a new map for the Christmas storm later. Regarding Thursday's storm, models and ensembles have generally come into agreement on a low passing right over southern New England, with the GFS now on the western edge of guidance. The 0z Euro run came east a little which would favor a slightly colder solution, with the CMC, UKMET, and NOGAPS all favoring the storm passing just offshore, producing a solution a bit cooler than the Euro. For now though, I don't see any reason to adjust the map for that storm. Still another storm threat in about a week, but no agreement whatsoever on the models, GFS is out to sea, Euro keeps it inland, CMC shows a snow bomb. Just too early on that one.

Alright, here's the new Christmas snow map. I decided to just put pretty much everywhere in the C-3 inch range as there will not be big enough variations to note on the map. The coating is most likely to be found just north of the rain/snow line, while the isolated three inch amounts will likely be in the higher terrain of central/western MA. Other than that though, most people in the area can expect just an inch or two.



This is the latest thinking from the Taunton NWS, it's similar to yesterday's, and still too high for most areas IMO. A widespread 2-4 inches seemed possible yesterday morning, but now seems pretty unlikely.

12z NAM came in with an inch or two for everyone but the Cape and islands:



GFS up next, I'm very interested in the coming run as the 12z runs tend to be the best.

12z GFS was pathetic on the Christmas system, about an inch north of the RI/CT border, this is really looking like a non-event.



The run is still going, we'll see what it does for Thursday.

12z GFS came in noticeably east on the Thursday storm, it is now much more in line with the Euro, just a tad farther west. I'll have a new map for this storm later today, I wouldn't expect major changes, but I'll probably bring the all rain line down to the south/east some, a few more people may see some snow than I originally thought.

6z 102 hours:



12z 102 hours:

12z GFS continuing to keep the 12/30 storm out to sea:

Quoting wxchaser97:
It still looks likely that a solid snow event should impact SE MI. I know it doesn't help you but yeah...

Ha, looks like you'll finally get your storm. I may have to come visit you, lol.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Sure looks like it, I'm hoping for enough to snow blow. I don't think you would want to come, unless you want to get a 101F fever and other stuff :P

Ew, I had that last week, as did pretty much everyone up here. Hope you at least get a little better for Christmas.

Quoting Barefootontherocks:
"Storm train..."

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year



Keep up the good work.

Thanks Barefoot, same to you!

Interestingly enough, I really like the 12z CMC solution for Thursday, starts off as snow for many before transitioning over for many.





It also is maintaining a mostly snow event for 12/30, still not real sure how I feel about that one:



Here's my latest snow map for Thursday.



By "moderate to major snowstorm", I mean anything from six inches or so in the southern part of that area to widespread 12 inch or greater amounts elsewhere. I don't really do specific amounts for that far north though, I mostly stick with southern New England.

12z Euro was similar to 0z for Thursday, also came way further east on the 12/30 storm, from an inside runner to just over eastern MA/Cape Cod:



That would still mean rain for most of the area but I like the way things are trending, I feel this one will either end up as a pretty decent snow event or out to sea, but not an inside runner as the Euro had been showing.

This is the new snow map from the NWS on the Christmas system, they've come more in line with my thinking of rain at the south coast and a general 1-2 inches elsewhere, with slightly higher amounts to the west, though I still think any 4 inch amounts would be extremely isolated:

18z GFS was basically a non event for tomorrow night, warm/west for Thursday, and major snowstorm for next weekend. I don't see any changes necessary to either of my snow maps for the next two events. Still way too early to know any details about next weekend, but my confidence is pretty high there will be some kind of storm, it just depends where it goes.

Thursday storm:



Next Sunday:

No big changes last night on the Christmas storm, the biggest thing is that I introduced the possibility for some minor ice accumulation as the NWS has brought up the potential for a few hundreths of an inch of ice, not enough to cause major problems but enough to make roads slick for Christmas day travel.



Here's the NWS's latest thinking, not all that different from mine:

Thursday's storm appeared to trend a bit cooler last night also, I have to review the model data a little more before I make a new snow map for that storm, but I should have one out later today.

Next Sunday's storm remains a complete mystery, although I still believe it will either be out to sea or a big hit for snow, these are the two scenarios the GFS has been suggesting. The Euro remains farther west but is steadily trending east, closer to the GFS. This storm represents the best opportunity so far for 6"+ in all of southern New England, but there's still too much uncertainty to even think about attempting a snow map.

Here's my new snow map for Thursday. The jackpot 18" amounts will occur in higher elevations of central/northern New England, but there is still the potential for widespread 12" amounts in lower elevations. No big changes for southern New England, rain near the coast, a slushy inch or two further inland that will be washed away when precip switches to rain, and slightly higher amounts with the potential for sleet and icing farther inland before you get into the jackpot area where it stays all or mostly snow:

12z NAM was rather robust on tonight/tomorrow's event, widespread 2-4 inches. Probably overdone, but we'll see what the GFS says.



NAM also came in further east for the Thursday storm.

GFS colder again for Thursday, brings more snow further east:



CMC is next, UKMET will follow shortly after, then the all important Euro run in a couple hours.

GFS is still running, we'll see what it does for Sunday.

12z GFS was mostly out to sea for Sunday/Monday, glancing blow for southern New England:



12z CMC showed a snowstorm:



And the UKMET looks good for snow, maybe some rain at the coast:

.

12z Euro came in very similar to 0z on Thursday's storm, with snow limited to interior areas, I'm still feeling pretty good about my snow map, if anything I may have to decrease amounts further south and bring the all rain line north some as the southward trend in the models seems to be slowing and it may even reverse to a northward trend this evening and tonight.

72 hours:



96 hours:



It also continued its trend east for Sunday, now showing a pretty big snow event for southern New England. Unfortunately for snow lovers like myself I'm thinking this storm will go mostly out to sea, maybe a light snow especially in eastern areas, still a little early for amounts.

The NWS keeps changing the snow maps, so disregard the one posted in comment 26, and really all the other ones that have been posted. The ones I post here automatically update when the NWS updates them if you just copy the URL in like I've been doing. I'll start saving, uploading, and then posting now to avoid confusion as that will prevent the map from updating. This is their latest thinking for tonight and tomorrow, it's similar to my thinking and confidence is quite high on this forecast, as it should be this close to the event:

Most of the guidance, even the NAM which had been most aggressive, trended weaker on tonight's/tomorrow's system, still looks like a non-event for the most part, I stand by my thoughts from comment 20. No big changes on the NAM or GFS for Thursday, I stand by comment 22.

Sunday still up in the air, 18z GFS was out to sea as many of its runs lately have been, I almost think that's the direction I'm leaning right now even though the other models keep it closer. We'll see though.

I hope everyone has a fantastic Christmas!! If you're in the tornado threat for tomorrow, keep an eye to the sky, keep your NOAA weather radio handy, and use your common sense!

This is the NWS's latest thinking for Thursday, I agree with it for the most part although they may need to move the six inch amounts north/west some.



I picked up just a little dusting last night, still snowing lightly right now but this was really a non-event. Still uncertainty on Sunday but my confidence is slowly increasing that that system will go all or mostly out to sea.

Quoting stansweather:
Merry Xmass All!Very little snow here but enough to make it white.The pattern is slowly shifting the storm tracks further east and south but i still dont see enough yet to get much snow here in s new england.Late next weekend may be our last chance for a snow storm here!After that pattern will be cold but storm track looks well east for a week or two at least.

I agree, looks like a dry and possibly cold pattern beyond this weekend, Merry Xmas to you as well!

FWIW, 12z GFS came further west for Sunday, gave southern New England a decent snow event, still a lot of uncertainty. You'd drive yourself nuts if you fully believe every new model run that comes in, so for now I'll stick with mainly out to sea but that's very much up in the air.

Surprisingly, I still feel pretty good about my forecast for tomorrow night/Thursday, models really haven't changed a whole lot so I think the map in comment 22 is pretty accurate.

My confidence is continuing to increase that Sunday will be a mainly out to sea storm, however we'll have to watch for the possibility of Cape Cod and other parts of SE MA to get clipped with a decent snow, I'll have a preliminary map for that storm out tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Good afternoon. Here's my new, final snow map for tonight and tomorrow:

Here's my snow map for Saturday night into Sunday. A 50-75 mile shift in storm track to the west would mean widespread 6"+, while a 50-75 mile shift east would likely mean just clouds for most and maybe flurries/snowshowers on the Cape and islands, so stay tuned for possible changes.



The NWS is thinking no more than two inches south of the Mass Pike, I went a little higher since I'm favoring a slightly more west storm track, and snow ratios will be extremely high so anything that falls will have no problem sticking.

Good afternoon. There remains uncertainty for the next storm Sat-Sun, the 0z Euro showed a major snowstorm, but 12z backed off considerably, the GFS has been impressively consistent with just a graze, other models are scattered about but mostly show grazes, the NAM is the weakest and most out to sea, but I don't quite buy that. I still like my map from yesterday. Also looks like some very cold air coming in for early next week regardless of what we get from this storm.

I think my map from last night's/today's storm verified pretty well, this storm didn't pull any major surprises.

Here's my new map for the next storm. Timeframe has moved up a little, from Sat. night into early Sunday to Sat. early afternoon into early Sat. night:



The storm should take a pretty good track for snow, likely just south/east of the 40/70 benchmark, but the two pieces of energy that will eventually make this a powerful storm are probably going to phase just a little too late for a major snow event in southern New England. There is still a little bit of time for change but models have come into pretty good agreement, hopefully that holds overnight.

As of it's latest (0z) run, the NAM has come in line with the majority of the other models. As I mentioned it had been showing an unrealistically weak, completely out to sea storm, but is now on board for a grazing blow with phasing occurring too late for more than a few inches.

Here's my new snow map for tomorrow/tomorrow night, the trend on the models last night and this morning was a slightly stronger, more west storm.



The NWS is thinking more like 1-3", with 2-4" a possibility, but that seems low to me, though it's not at all out of the question, nor is a scenario of more widespread 6" amounts if the storm is a little stronger. 12z runs today will be interesting, the NAM's is already in, it has been trending stronger and that continued in the new run, it shows support for the solution I have in my map.

The 12z model suite didn't really show a whole lot of change, the GFS was a little stronger but CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF showed little change. Some of my local TV mets up here are calling for as much as 6-9" in parts of my 4-6" swath, I'm absolutely not buying that at this point. I am very surprised, however, that winter weather advisories have not yet been posted by the NWS, they have not been very aggressive on snow totals for this storm, but it's clear the general 1-3" they forecast this morning is basically out of the question and they need to get some advisories up for this moderate snow event.

Next model run of interest will be the 18z NAM, followed by the 18z GFS.

18z NAM was slower initially with development, then showed very rapid development as the low moved north and past New England, in the end it was similar to 12z, I still don't see support for anything greater than 6".

Quoting stansweather:
Winter advisories now up for southern half of the state and snow amounts up somewhat by the NWS office in LI.I see that parts of LI and se coastal areas snowfall predictions now down abit which tells me this storm may intensify quicker and alittle closer to us giving LI and some coastal areas some rain keeping snowfalls down abit but giving areas father north more snow.I agree with your snow predictions!heres hoping your right.Snow lover here and on top of the few inches we now have and a good spell of cold after!this snow wont melt to quick.

Ah, good to see a fellow snow lover here! Winter Storm Watches now up for some areas, this thing is trending stronger, not a blockbuster but looks like a solid several inches on the way, which as you said should stick around awhile!

18z GFS was slightly stronger than 12z, I'll have a new map out very soon.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
443 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...

.LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE DEEPENING STORM WILL PASS
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OFF
THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE MOST SNOW
EXPECTED OVER RHODE ISLAND AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

MAZ012-013-016>021-RIZ001>007-290545-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0004.121229T1500Z-121230T1200Z/
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...
NORWOOD...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH. ..FALL RIVER...
NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PRO VIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WES TERLY...
NEWPORT
443 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY/SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...ACCUMULATING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY. SNOW TAPERS
OFF TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH MAY MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT.
POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

&&

$$

WTB

Alright, here's the new map. I'm still a bit reluctant to increase amounts and put in 8" as the maximum, but that does seem to be the trend. Higher than normal bust potential with this storm though.



0z NAM is the next major model run- and that will be a very important run- followed by the rest of the 0z suite, also very important.

It's the NAM vs. the RPM (typically very accurate short range model).

New NAM is extremely low on amounts, just a couple inches, but the RPM's last two runs have shown over a foot for a widespread area! As usual in this situation, the best solution is probably something in the middle, or maybe even a little closer to the NAM. My map still looks pretty good I think, may need to shift that 5-8 south/east a little and perhaps shave it down to 5-7, I expect 0z guidance to follow the NAM and trend towards less precip, though not as dry as the NAM.

Btw, no matter what happens here, eastern Canada is going to get absolutely crushed by this thing!

Good morning. Guidance last night- particularly the 6z GFS and 6z NAM- actually trended a little stronger. Winter Storm Warnings are up, NWS still thinking 4-8". Here's my new, probably final snow map, this one was not easy to make, lol. General confidence is increasing, I don't see as much bust potential as I did yesterday, the real tough area to forecast is the Cape/ far SE MA due to the rain/snow line issue.

12z NAM was higher again on snow totals, but the RPM backed off a lot and now is a good deal lower than the NAM for most areas, my confidence has actually gotten worse this morning, and while I still feel good about my map numbers right now, I am reintroducing a larger than average bust possibility, based on a combination of a gut feeling, some holes I'm seeing in the radar (although I feel they will fill in), and most importantly the fact that the main low off the Carolinas seems to be moving more east than north. A 30 mile shift west means big snowstorm. A 30 mile shift east means very little snow. GFS running now.