MAweatherboy1's Blog

If you struggled to get your bearings on the locations of the sunspots in Figure 3, here is a more clear picture:



The diagram in Figure 3 will update all day, so you can track the progress of the sunspots. This picture here is from about 5:15 AM EST this morning.

The Bz component has gone somewhat negative now, not enough to indicate an impending storm but it bears watching. Solar wind has also ticked up but only slightly as it remains fairly low.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Bz component has gone somewhat negative now, not enough to indicate an impending storm but it bears watching. Solar wind has also ticked up but only slightly as it remains fairly low.

Bz has swung back positive, solar wind is slightly higher, still no signs of impact. This graphic will update:

This is a 1 minute X ray chart, it goes back a few hours. Almost no solar flares at all this morning, just a low level C1 flare around 1430z:



This will update.

Bz has dropped back a little negative again, though not nearly enough to indicate a storm (see comment 4), and we also just had a minor C class flare (see comment 5)

The negative Bz has persisted for a while and is becoming more pronounced, indicating the effects of the CME are likely beginning. This is a KP index chart. We're currently at a KP of 2. Anything 3 or under is considered quiet. A 4 is considered unsettled. A 5 is a minor storm, a 6 is a moderate storm, etc. We will likely see this get up to a 4 or a 5 in the next several hours:



This will update.

Just had another low level C class flare (see the X ray chart). Still no major events today though. The SWPC daily report/3 day forecast will be out in 20 minutes or so.

The daily SWPC forecast is out. They continue to expect the potential for a minor geomagnetic storm coming soon, although the Bz component is less negative than earlier. They also keep the chances of flares in the next 3 days at 35% and 5% for M and X class flares, respectively.

An increase in solar wind has occurred recently, indicating we are now experiencing the effect of the CME... we could reach minor storm conditions in a fairly short period of time.

The calm is broken! One of our sunspots has just fired off a very impulsive M2 class solar flare. Those types of events often don't generate a CME, those are often reserved for long duration events, but it can happen. We'll know which spot produced it in just a few minutes.

I almost think, looking at the X ray image taken at 2315z, just as the event was beginning, that sunspot 1613 was responsible for the event as I notice a little bit of subtle action occurring around it. I noted on my blog this morning in Figure 3 that the spot did appear to be growing but remained very magnetically simple. It appears it has become significantly more complex today though, and even if it wasn't responsible for this flare, it could be a source of action in days ahead.

Yep, it's 1613 for sure:

Quoting Dakster:
Is that coming our way?

If this flare produced a CME, which is still unknown, it would likely be directed at least mostly away from Earth since 1613 isn't directly facing us. It's turning our way though and still growing- future eruptions may be directed more at us.

Thanks for stopping by!

Quoting Dakster:
Thanks for answering... Looked like it was 'aimed' at us, but of course everything is in motion so I have no idea on how to tell!

There's really no set in stone way, these things are very unpredictable. I'm just making an educated guess!

A moderate C class event occurred just a few minutes ago, it can be seen on the chart in comment 5 as well as Figure 2 in the blog, I believe 1613 was the source again.

Solar wind continues to increase (see comment 4) and we have reached a KP index level of 3 (see comment 7). If we get up to a 4, which should happen soon, that would put us at the unsettled level.

The SWPC has issued this in reference to the M class flare earlier.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 827
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 13 0004 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Nov 12 2328 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 645 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

This would seem to indicate a CME has been produced, but no confirmation yet.

Quoting Juandelacruz:
Attention. The Solar Alert App (Solar Alert) for iphone on Friday warned already about the minor solar storm that has arrived today Monday.

http://www.solaralertapp.com/

So? There are several places that have recognized the threat, I'm just providing updates here.

We've reached a KP index of 4, indicating we are now at unsettled levels. Really nothing significant so far though.

I've only been seriously tracking/observing solar flares since early this year, but I've never seen anything like this. One of our sunspots just produced an M6 class event. Nothing really remarkable about that intensity level, it's powerful but certainly not unheard of, but what is remarkable is that the X ray chart went straight up- talk about impulsive!



I don't know the source yet, but 1613 seems the most likely candidate- it has gone nuts this evening with that initial M class flare, followed by several C class flares, and now probably this one.

Waiting on a new X ray image to come in to confirm the source of the M6 flare.

In the meantime, no new news to report with tonight's potential geomagnetic storm, still no major effects.

Wow, what a beautiful image... 1613 clearly confirmed as the source here:



It's amazing that in just 12 hours 1613 has went from being a negligible region in the midst of several larger, seemingly more interesting spots, to a hyper-active region capable of producing back to back M flares like that. Earth better hope this thing quiets down or falls apart in the next 2-3 days or we could be in trouble.

Already a moderate (R2) radio blackout is in progress because of that flare. The one earlier brought us into a minor R1 blackout.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 184
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 13 0206 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 13 0204 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.

Here's an aurora graph for tonight, anywhere highlighted in green should be on the lookout. This is a test product and aurora's are very hard to predict however, so this should be used as a very general guideline:

I'm out for the night- hate to go to bed so early but I'm still recovering from a cold I got last week and need to get some good sleep. I'll give a summary of the night's event in the morning. Feel free to post anything of interest.

Good morning. Just a quick recap of last night's activity: 1613 produced 1 more M class flare not long after the second one. Since then it has produced a few C class flares but seems to generally be on a quieting trend.

We never reached minor geomagnetic storm levels last night- close, but not quite.

Good afternoon. No major activity today, we appear to have returned to the quiet that has dominated much of this year.

Well, it was quiet, but 1613 just woke back up and fired off an M2 class flare. Daily SWPC report will be out in a half hour.

The interesting thing is that 1613 really doesn't look like a very threatening region right now. 1610, 1611, and 1614 all appear bigger and more apt to produce flares. And yet, they are all quiet while 1613 has produced 4 M class flares in 24 hours.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Nov 13 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2012


IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
Region 1613 (S23E31) has developed a Delta magnetic configuration and
produced multiple M-class flares with associated CMEs. The largest solar
event of the period was a M6 event observed at 13/0204Z from Region
1613. Regions 1610 (S24W23) and 1611 (N12W00) have Beta Gamma magnetic
configurations. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk. No CMEs observed during the period are expected to be
geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).


IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
504 km/s at 13/0111Z. Total IMF reached 22.8 nT at 13/0053Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -19.5 nT at 12/2338Z. ACE data
indicated a shock arrival at 12/2216Z. A sudden impulse was observed at
12/2316Z (16 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer).

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to begin at active levels early on day 1 (14 Nov) as CME effects
subside. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days 1 and 2 (14, 15
Nov) due to effects from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed
stream. On day 3 (16 Nov), conditions are expected to return to mostly
quiet levels. Protons have a slight chance of reaching alert threshold
on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).


III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green


IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 146
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 150/150/160
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 118


V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/010-007/008-006/005


VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/10
Major-severe storm 25/25/05

The geomagnetic field is having a tough time settling down after yesterday's unsettled period. Bz has been fairly sharply negative for the last couple hours. I wouldn't even rule out some brief minor storm conditions if that persists.

Though solar wind is not high, Bz is way negative right now. I'd put the odds at 40% that we reach minor storm levels, though those odds are increasing as the Bz continues to fall further negative.

SWPC is now expecting minor storm conditions tonight, Bz remains way negative.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 816
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 14 0055 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 14 0100 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 14 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

If you're in northern Maine as well as much of Canada, it's worth a shot to take a look outside:

We ended up with an extended moderate geomagnetic storm last night. Really came out of nowhere. Shows how unpredictable these things are:

Solar activity has returned to quiet. The geomagnetic storm has fully subsided. In addition, all the major spots on the surface of the Sun have shown decay today, so there is little risk of more than some C class flares.

I'm watching a fast growing sunspot to the SSE of 1616. It was barely visible yesterday morning:



However it has been growing quite rapidly and is now larger than the shrinking 1616... it wasn't even large enough to number yesterday evening so we'll have to wait for this evening until it is officially classified:



Still too small and simple to produce solar flares but this is very similar to what happened to 1613 last week. 1613 is the spot on the south side of the Sun, and is nowhere near as complex as it was when it produced numerous M class flares last week. No other things of note on the Sun right now. Very low risk of flares today, slight chance of a C class event from 1614, and possibly the new region if it keeps growing.

The sunspot I noted yesterday, now numbered 1619, has continued growth at a very impressive rate, see comment 41- 1619 is the large region near the center of the Sun. So far no major flares but if it keeps growing something's bound to happen. Due to its location near the center of the Sun any CMEs produced by flares from this region in the next 1-3 days would almost certainly be squarely directed at us.

1619 produced a fairly mild C4.3 solar flare an hour or so ago, not really that big of a deal but it indicates the area is now capable of producing flares. I wouldn't be too surprised if we see an M class event out of it today.

Quick update: Still watching 1619 as it continues to grow, albeit it's growth certainly appears to have slowed down. It's been fairly quiet with the exception of that one C class flare earlier. I'm also watching sunspot 1618, located on the eastern/central portion of the Sun. 1618 is a very large region from end to end, several times the size of Earth and longer than even 1619. It doesn't have much in the way of dark cores or large individual spots though, just a lot of little ones making up the one sunspot. It did produce a low level C class flare earlier though and it is growing so I'll be keeping an eye on it.

Beautiful CME leaving the Sun right now in association with an earlier prominence eruption, it should not be directed at us:

Not much to speak about regarding the Sun today; 1619 is no longer growing and remains stable. 1618 is more interesting, however, as it continues to grow and has a magnetic field capable of producing M class solar flares. Because of this, SWPC has raised the chance of an M class flare in the next 24 hours to 30%, with a low 5% chance of an X class flare.

A rather odd, long duration solar flare is currently occurring around 1618. It's only moderate C class strength right now and could end at any second, but it's interesting. Long duration event often produce CMEs, even when the events aren't that strong, so it's something to watch.

The event appears to have peaked, see comment 5's X-ray chart.



It'll take a little while to know if a CME was produced; if it was it's possible it will be somewhat Earth directed, but since 1618 isn't quite lined up with us yet a direct hit seems unlikely. Future CMEs could be different though as 1618 is constantly getting closer to the center of the Sun.

1618 has become a dominating region this morning; Background X-ray levels are at the C1 level, which is very high. No noteworthy flares yet, but that could easily change as there is a tremendous amount of energy stored within this spot's tangled magnetic fields.

Very interesting day on the Sun today. Out of nowhere, sunspot 1611, which is about to rotate out of Earth view, produced an M class flare this morning. This will not affect Earth. A large CME was produced later due to an eruption around 1619, which remains an impressive region after its rapid growth a few days ago... this CME does not appear very Earth directed. Finally, just now, 1618 has finally broken its silence and produced a near M2 class flare. 1618 is getting close to being directly lined up with us. Any CME produced from this flare would likely be at least somewhat Earth directed, and any CMEs produced in the next 2 days are very likely to be directed at us.

X ray chart:

The geomagnetic field is a little unsettled this afternoon. KP index has reached 4.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1620
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 20 2004 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 20 1958 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.