Average 18 year old weather nerd. Freshman at Plymouth State University, majoring in meteorology, with the goal of becoming a professional forecaster.
By: MAweatherboy1 , 10:46 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
After a nearly three weak long reign as the only active cyclone in the Atlantic basin, Tropical Storm Nadine is weakening this evening. As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Nadine's maximum 1 minute sustained winds are down to 65mph and its minimum central pressure is 995mb. Nadine is still meandering out there, currently on a southward drift at about 5mph. It is located about 710 miles W of the Azores.
Forecast for Nadine
After one final burst of restrengthening yesterday, Nadine's appearance began to deteriorate last night and through the day today as it moved over cooler waters and less favorable conditions. While the last three weeks have taught us not to count Nadine out, she is likely on a permanent weakening trend this time as sea surface temperatures under her will remain cool and shear will increase further ahead of a trough. As the trough approaches, the weakening Nadine will begin to move towards the east and accelerate rapidly in a day or so as it becomes post tropical by the end of the week. Right now it appears that the storm should stay west of the Azores, but the western islands are in the cone of uncertainty so they need to keep an eye on Nadine. By the time she gets close enough to affect the Azores she will likely be post tropical or nearly post tropical, so I do not see the need for tropical storm watches at this point.
Figure 1: Official NHC forecast track of Nadine.
Maliksi Organizing, But Will Not Affect Land
The West Pacific remains very active right now with two active storms. The first one is Tropical Storm Maliksi, located about 360 nautical miles SSE of Iwo-To, Japan, according to the latest advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. According to their latest advisory, Maliksi has maximum 1 minute sustained winds of 35kts, making it a minimal tropical storm. Dvorak T numbers support a higher intensity of 45-50kts, however, and based on its satellite appearance this seems to be a more appropriate intensity. The storm is moving NNW at 11kts. Maliksi is expected to steadily, but not rapidly, strengthen under fairly favorable conditions, and the forecast peak intensity in 2 days is 70kts, which would make it a category 1 equivalent on the Saffir Simpson Scale. Because I feel the currently listed intensity is too low, I am a little more aggressive on my forecast peak intensity, as a peak of around 80kts seems more reasonable. Regarding track, Maliksi should be a fairly typical recurving storm. It is currently being steered by a subtropical ridge, but an approaching trough will act to erode this ridge and turn Maliksi NE out to sea, very similar to what happens when Atlantic storms recurve. As of right now it appears Maliksi should pass safely south and east of Japan as it accelerates NE with high surf and rip currents being the only concerns.
Figure 2: Tropical Storm Maliksi. The very deep convection is a common characteristic of West Pacific storms, and the cyclone is likely intensifying right now.
Figure 3: Official JTWC forecast track of Maliksi, indicating a recurve well before it can threaten Japan.
Gaemi A Threat to Vietnam
Also in the West Pacific, this time in the South China Sea, newly named tropical storm Gaemi is churning. Gaemi currently has maximum 1 minute sustained winds of 35kts according to the JTWC, making it a minimal tropical storm. Like Maliski, its intensity may be a bit higher than what is officially listed. Gaemi has been showing very little motion recently, and will likely move little for the next day or two, with just a little southward drifting likely. During this time it should slowly intensify, and the forecast peak intensity from JTWC is 55kts in about 3 days. Tropical systems rarely intensify significantly in the South China Sea, and I think 55kts, is probably a fair bet for a peak intensity. After its southward drift, Gaemi is expected to accelerate west and make landfall as a tropical storm in Vietnam in 4-5 days. Due to the current weak steering currents Gaemi is in now, confidence is rather low on the extended track as if the system does not go south for the next day or two changes in the track may be required. The biggest impacts for Vietnam will definitely be floods and mudslides, as that country has a long history of destructive floods brought by often relatively weak tropical cyclones. One advantage they have this time is that Gaemi should be moving rather fast as it passes through the country. Still, the situation bears watching.
Figure 4: Tropical Storm Gaemi. As opposed to the deep convectioned Maliksi, I think Gaemi actually bares a resemblance to Atlantic and East Pacific storms.
Figure 5: Official JTWC forecast track of Gaemi.
Follow Up On Last Night's Post
If you read my post last night, you'll remember I was talking about some interesting solar weather events yesterday. I was discussing the potential of geomagnetic storming last night, and indeed, we did reach brief periods of major storming last night. Refer to last night's entry for the whole story.
Figure 6: The Kp index hit 7 last night, meaning we were experiencing a major geomagnetic storm.
Thanks for reading, and have a great night!
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