Average 19 year old weather nerd. Sophomore @ Plymouth State University, majoring in meteorology, with the goal of becoming a professional forecaster
By: MAweatherboy1 , 7:11 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Nadine is a true fighter of a storm. Throughout her life she's been bullied by occasional areas of high wind shear and cool waters. Despite this, she has fought back after every weakening spell, including this morning, when after a brief fall to tropical storm status, Nadine ramped back up and reintensified to hurricane status. As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Nadine currently has maximum 1 minute sustained winds of 75mph and a minimum central pressure of 988mb. She is a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Scale. Nadine is currently located about 610 miles WSW of the Azores and is moving NNW at 14mph.
Forecast for Nadine
Nadine is currently in an area of moderate wind shear and marginal sea surface temperatures. For this reason, even though she has strengthened in these conditions before, I don't see much intensification in the future for her, though I think it is possible she may peak at around 85mph based on current trends and her upgrade to 70kts at the 18z ATCF update. I am expecting little change over the next 24 hours, with steady weakening after this time, and I still believe Nadine will become non tropical in 4-5 days as it moves over cool waters. Regarding track, Nadine should continue a NNW motion for the next 18-24 hours. After this time, through about 4 days out, Nadine will be in an area of weak steering currents, and as it has for much of its life, will meander around the open Atlantic with very little motion, with a possibility of the storm making a cyclonic loop as the NHC indicates. Finally, Nadine should get caught up in westerly winds generate by a developing baroclinic storm in the Atlantic and get forced E/ENE in the direction of the Azores as it loses tropical characteristics. The NHC hints that the storm will mostly go north of the Azores, but I feel Nadine will really get caught up in the westerlies as she weakens and the baroclinic storm strengthens, forcing her more east and closer to the central Azores in 6 days or so. It is too early to tell any specific impacts, but I do not expect anything significant at this point. Tropical Storm watches may be required for the Azores in a couple days as a precaution.
Figure 1: Official NHC forecast for Nadine. I believe a more south/east solution is likely, but the way Nadine's been anything is possible.
After developing only yesterday, Tropical Depression Norman has become post tropical over the Gulf of California according to the 18z ATCF update. Norman's center is currently located about 100 miles WNW of Los Mochis, MX, with maximum winds of 30mph and a minimum central pressure of 1007mb. Norman's remnant circulation should dissipate within the next day or so, but some heavy rainfall will continue over Texas. I find it interesting that Texas has been looking to the Atlantic to provide a beneficial rain making tropical system, but they ended up getting it from a little East Pac storm.
Figure 2: The remnant circulation of Norman, which should dissipate in the next 24 hours.
Jelawat Weakens, Will Brush Japan
After providing some pretty strong impacts on Okinawa yesterday, Typhoon Jelawat has continued to weaken and accelerate NE. Jelawat currently has maximum 1 minute sustained winds of 75kts according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Jelawat should continue to weaken in very unfavorable conditions, and it will likely make a second landfall in Japan tonight. Impacts should be minimal as it will not be a long duration event. Japan is generally in a favorable position to avoid the worst of tropical cyclones, as storms that get that far up are usually weakening and accelerating, providing general protection for cities like Tokyo. Southern parts of the country and places like Okinawa are more vulnerable as storms can still be quite intense as they reach those areas.
Figure 3: Typhoon Jelawat, weakening and accelerating NE as it heads for landfall in Japan. The storm was once a Cat 5 monster, but unfavorable conditions have taken a toll on it.
Nothing on the Horizon
There are no areas being watched for development in the Atlantic by the NHC, and none of the reliable models have shown any consistent development in the next 10 days. I still believe we'll get 1-2 more storms this year, but it's not impossible that the end of Nadine will mean the end of the 2012 season.
Figure 4: 12z GFS, 312 hours. A sure sign the times are changing.
Thanks for reading, and enjoy the rest of your weekend!
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