Average 19 year old weather nerd. Sophomore @ Plymouth State University, majoring in meteorology, with the goal of becoming a professional forecaster
By: MAweatherboy1 , 9:04 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
It's been a while since I posted as there haven't been any major systems in the Atlantic in a while. Right now the only storm in the Atlantic is Hurricane Nadine. Nadine has been wandering the Atlantic since September 11, with one brief break during which the storm went non tropical. As if the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Nadine has maximum 1 minute sustained winds of 75mph and a minimum central pressure of 988mb, making it a minimal hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Scale. It is currently located about 710 miles SW of the Azores and is moving NW at 8mph.
Forecast for Nadine
Nadine is currently over moderately warm waters and heading into an area of moderate shear. Significant changes in intensity are unlikely for the next 2-3 days. After this time it will begin to move over cooler waters and stronger shear, which should weaken it and possibly lead to its final, long overdue demise in 5-7 days. Regarding track, Nadine should move steadily NW for the next 2 days or so, followed by a turn to the east and a slowdown after that time. What happens beyond here is a bit unclear as by the end of the forecast period the storm should be weakening due to cool waters and strong shear. I will likely write another blog in the next couple days to clarify what may happen beyond 5 days for Nadine. As of right now, Nadine is no threat to land.
Figure 1: Official NHC forecast track of Nadine. If anything I would have the storm move a bit faster towards the end of the period as the NHC suggests they may show in later advisories.
Norman Weak, But Providing Some Rain
Tropical Storm Norman formed in the East Pacific this morning. It currently has maximum 1 minute sustained winds of 40mph and a minimum central pressure of 1002mb. Norman is currently located about 130 miles NE of Cabo San Lucas, MX, and is moving briskly north at 16mph, meaning the storm will make landfall tonight. Norman currently looks very poor on satellite and should only get worse as it interacts with land more. It should continue to track north after it moves inland and dissipate quickly. While no significant impacts are likely, some heavy rain is falling in Mexico and Texas and may cause localized flooding.
Figure 2: A weakening Tropical Storm Norman, with the remnants of Miriam also visible.
Jelawat Moves Into Okinawa
For the second time in less than a month, a major hurricane is bearing down on the island of Okinawa. This time it is Typhoon Jelawat, which at one point was a Category 5 storm. A recent eyewall replacement cycle and less favorable upper level conditions have weakened the storm to a Category 3 with 120mph winds as it spins 125 miles SW of Kadena AFB, Okinawa, and is moving NE at 12kts. The center of Jelawat will likely pass directly over the island tonight, providing significant impacts, though it shouldn't be anything the well built island can't handle. Beyond this time fairly rapid weakening is likely to continue, and Jelawat will likely be a weak to moderate tropical storm when it makes a second landfall near Tokyo, Japan, in about 2 days.
Figure 3: Typhoon Jelawat. The clouding eye and a recent microwave pass suggest another EWRC is beginning, though this one is unlikely to finish.
Atlantic Outlook For October
With the exception of Nadine, the Atlantic has been rather quiet this September. Cape Verde season is essentially over (though some models are developing a wave near the coast of Africa- more information on that later if necessary) and conditions across most of the basin are pretty unfavorable. The main area to watch this month will be the Caribbean, as very warm water temperatures there will allow for storms to spin up quickly, provided there is limited shear and dry air, which has been a rarity this year. I do expect at least one Caribbean development this month, probably in the October 15-20 timeframe, with the most likely track being something similar to Hurricane Wilma of 2005.
Figure 4: The Atlantic. Moisture is evident in the Caribbean and I expect this to translate into something later in October.
Thanks for reading, and enjoy your weekend!
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