Average 19 year old weather nerd. Sophomore @ Plymouth State University, majoring in meteorology, with the goal of becoming a professional forecaster
By: MAweatherboy1 , 9:33 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
I just wanted to give a very quick update on my thoughts for our three areas of interest in the Atlantic. I am heading to Cape Cod this weekend to swim with the sharks so I won't be on again until Monday morning. These are just my predictions for the next 2 days.
Definitely the biggest threat in the Atlantic right now, I think Ernesto should continue to steadily organize through the weekend. It has looked better all day after nearly dissipating last night, so I think a continued strengthening is likely. I am thinking a track similar to that of the NHC at least in the short term. As for intensity, rapid strengthening over the next 2 days is unlikely since conditions won't be overly favorable for intensification, with some wind shear and some dry air. Nonetheless, I would not be surprised to find a Cat 1 hurricane when I return home.
11 PM tonight: 60mph
5AM Saturday: 60mph
11PM Saturday: 65mph
5AM Sunday: 70mph
11PM Sunday: 75 mph
Beyond this, I am thinking Ernesto will come close to the northern Yucatan, possibly heading through the Yucatan Channel. My forecast for a Texas landfall hasn't changed. A weak Ernesto would likely head for Central America/Mexico, while a strong one (Cat 3 or more) would likely head more towards LA or the FL panhandle. I think something in between is likely, with Ernesto peaking as a Cat 2 and heading for north Texas.
Figure 1: Tropical Storm Ernesto.
Figure 2: Official NHC track forecast. I'm thinking a similar track to this short term with a slightly more northerly track long term as Ernesto intensifies to Category 2 status.
Located in the far east Atlantic, invest 90L formed from a vigorous tropical wave today and has been looking better and better all day. The NHC gives it a 50% chance of development in the next 48 hours. As long as 90L maintains its current satellite appearance, it should be declared a TD tonight or tomorrow morning, so I put the odds at a higher 80%. Conditions are fairly favorable for development, so some strengthening is likely It certainly won't be a threat to land in the couple days I will be gone so I won't go into much detail here. My early thinking is that it won't head for the US, but Bermuda may need to watch this one.
Our newest invest, 91L, is located near the Bahamas and SE Florida. It has been looking better since being declared and the NHC gives it a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours. I put these odds closer to 40%, but I don't foresee 91L becoming a named tropical system. Regardless, the impacts will be the same for Florida: Heavy rains and gusty winds. 90L should keep moving NW into Florida. Shear is currently very high off the west coast of Florida, so unless this changes I don't see development of 91L over the Gulf either.
Figure 3: Invest 91L.
Elsewhere, the East Pac is very quiet. In the West Pac, newly named Tropical Depression Haikui has the potential to be a significant threat to Japan in a week or so. I will talk more about this when I get home.
Thank you very much for reading. Have a great weekend!!!
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