Tropical Weather Outlook for the Weekend

By: MAweatherboy1 , 9:33 PM GMT on August 03, 2012

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I just wanted to give a very quick update on my thoughts for our three areas of interest in the Atlantic. I am heading to Cape Cod this weekend to swim with the sharks so I won't be on again until Monday morning. These are just my predictions for the next 2 days.

Ernesto
Definitely the biggest threat in the Atlantic right now, I think Ernesto should continue to steadily organize through the weekend. It has looked better all day after nearly dissipating last night, so I think a continued strengthening is likely. I am thinking a track similar to that of the NHC at least in the short term. As for intensity, rapid strengthening over the next 2 days is unlikely since conditions won't be overly favorable for intensification, with some wind shear and some dry air. Nonetheless, I would not be surprised to find a Cat 1 hurricane when I return home.

11 PM tonight: 60mph
5AM Saturday: 60mph
11PM Saturday: 65mph
5AM Sunday: 70mph
11PM Sunday: 75 mph

Beyond this, I am thinking Ernesto will come close to the northern Yucatan, possibly heading through the Yucatan Channel. My forecast for a Texas landfall hasn't changed. A weak Ernesto would likely head for Central America/Mexico, while a strong one (Cat 3 or more) would likely head more towards LA or the FL panhandle. I think something in between is likely, with Ernesto peaking as a Cat 2 and heading for north Texas.


Figure 1: Tropical Storm Ernesto.


Figure 2: Official NHC track forecast. I'm thinking a similar track to this short term with a slightly more northerly track long term as Ernesto intensifies to Category 2 status.

90L
Located in the far east Atlantic, invest 90L formed from a vigorous tropical wave today and has been looking better and better all day. The NHC gives it a 50% chance of development in the next 48 hours. As long as 90L maintains its current satellite appearance, it should be declared a TD tonight or tomorrow morning, so I put the odds at a higher 80%. Conditions are fairly favorable for development, so some strengthening is likely It certainly won't be a threat to land in the couple days I will be gone so I won't go into much detail here. My early thinking is that it won't head for the US, but Bermuda may need to watch this one.

91L
Our newest invest, 91L, is located near the Bahamas and SE Florida. It has been looking better since being declared and the NHC gives it a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours. I put these odds closer to 40%, but I don't foresee 91L becoming a named tropical system. Regardless, the impacts will be the same for Florida: Heavy rains and gusty winds. 90L should keep moving NW into Florida. Shear is currently very high off the west coast of Florida, so unless this changes I don't see development of 91L over the Gulf either.


Figure 3: Invest 91L.

Elsewhere, the East Pac is very quiet. In the West Pac, newly named Tropical Depression Haikui has the potential to be a significant threat to Japan in a week or so. I will talk more about this when I get home.

Thank you very much for reading. Have a great weekend!!!

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8. MAweatherboy1
1:20 AM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
" I am heading to Cape Cod this weekend to swim with the sharks so I won't be on again until Monday morning. "
"swim with the sharks"
"sharks"

....it's been nice knowing you.
Nice blog. I still think Ernesto is stronger than 50mph.

Lol, thanks for stopping by... Just had a very rare great white attack off the Cape last week.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7928
7. MAweatherboy1
1:18 AM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Should 91L develop into a Tropical Storm and track over FL. into the GOM how do you see that influencing the track of Ernesto?

Tough to say, lot of what ifs involved, but it's possible it could help out by moistening the environment in and around the Gulf, which could let Ernesto get stronger, and pulled north more as a result. Thanx for stopping by.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7928
6. WeatherNerdPR
1:16 AM GMT on August 04, 2012
" I am heading to Cape Cod this weekend to swim with the sharks so I won't be on again until Monday morning. "
"swim with the sharks"
"sharks"

....it's been nice knowing you.
Nice blog. I still think Ernesto is stronger than 50mph.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
5. GTcooliebai
1:16 AM GMT on August 04, 2012
Should 91L develop into a Tropical Storm and track over FL. into the GOM how do you see that influencing the track of Ernesto?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
4. MAweatherboy1
12:10 AM GMT on August 04, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
come back in 1 piece...with all your pieces attached...:)

Lol, I'll try.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7928
3. GeorgiaStormz
10:56 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
come back in 1 piece...with all your pieces attached...:)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
2. MAweatherboy1
9:46 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
Nice blog MA.

Thanks!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7928
1. wxchaser97
9:44 PM GMT on August 03, 2012
Nice blog MA.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958

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About MAweatherboy1

Average 18 year old weather nerd. Freshman at Plymouth State University, majoring in meteorology, with the goal of becoming a professional forecaster.