Alberto Spinning Down, 92E Should Be Watched
Tropical storm Alberto is currently meandering off the Southeast US coast. He is located about 105 miles southeast of Savannah, Georgia. The current intensity is estimated at 45mph by the National Hurricane Center with a pressure of 1006mb. The pressure has steadily risen throughout the day, indicating Alberto is weakening as it battles dry air to its south and some shear.
Tiny Alberto is seen battling a lot of dry air to its south and east
All Tropical Storm Watches have been discontinued as it appears Alberto will remain far enough offshore to not provide tropical storm force conditions to South Carolina. The wind field of Alberto is tiny, with tropical storm force winds barely extending 50 miles from the center. Under weak steering currents, Alberto has drifted southwest over the past day and is now turning more to the south. It should begin a move to the northeast soon, which will cause it to accelerate and become extratropical if it has not already dissipated by that time. After a convective burst near the center earlier today, Alberto once again seems to have weakening convection, leading me to believe it will dissipate in 24 hours or so.
Alberto is seen nearly void of deep convection
An air force recon mission earlier today found some winds of near 60mph but due to possible contaminations as well as the storm's worsened satellite presentation the intensity was kept at 45mph.
92E Organizes In The East Pac
Meanwhile, in the East Pacific, long lived invest 92E appears to finally be organizing. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 60% chance of developing within the next 48 hours as it drifts slowly to the northwest. Some models intensify 92E into a hurricane and bring it close to the Mexican coastline. My intenisty forecast is less agressive, as I expect a peak of around 60-65mph. I do think that it is likely 92E will at least track close to Mexico, so people there should be on guard. I will have more updates on 92E later this week as it continues to develop.
92E has quite a bit of deep convection and an improving satellite signature.
Looking long range, it appears we will be entering a quiet spell in the tropics for the next week or two, but as always, storms can spin up out of nowhere so we should remain vigilant.
Thank you as always for reading, and have a great week!