Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra
Beryl Nearing Landfall Just South of Jacksonville, Florida
Posted by: Levi32, 4:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2012 +7
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Convective coverage and intensity has increased with Beryl this morning, though her center is still not covered. As expected, the Gulf Stream has allowed convective bands to develop and strengthen the circulation. Although this morning's recon plane did not find a change in central pressure (998mb), they found that winds had increased to around 60mph. This increase is due to the fact that Beryl had no thunderstorms yesterday, and the new ones she has today have tightened the circulation and the pressure gradient, thus increasing the wind speeds despite no change in central pressure. This type of organizational intensification will be the main source of any further strengthening of Beryl before landfall. Visible satellite imagery reveals a dry slot in the NW quadrant of the storm where cooler shelf waters are causing convective bands to dissipate, illustrating the region where Beryl will cease strengthening prior to landfall as she moves over it. Landfall will occur this evening just south of Jacksonville, Florida, and any further strengthening should be slight. Overall, her peak intensity and landfall location look like they will be in perfect agreement with my forecast from before she was named.

I discuss in the video why Beryl is fully tropical and should be classified as such by the NHC before landfall, but we will see what they decide. If they don't reclassify it, I think it will get a second look in the post-season. Right now what title they give it doesn't change the impacts to the coast.

The main story with Beryl will be the beneficial rainfall that she will provide to central-northern Florida and Georgia. As promised, rainfall can be found all around the circulation, and it will provide drought-relief for a wide swath following landfall. Unfortunately, the trough that is eroding the ridge to the north of Beryl will be recurving her to the NE or ENE tomorrow and Tuesday, taking her along the coast of the Carolinas, possibly offshore, and the shearing from the trough may keep most of the rainfall offshore for those areas, but some relief is still possible. Most models suggest that Beryl will redevelop into a tropical storm off of the outer banks of North Carolina, but she will be no threat for a second landfall.

After Beryl, the Atlantic should turn quiet for at least the next two weeks, and I think we will have to wait until after June 15th for any more significant threats for tropical development. May was extremely active, but the official season will start slow. I will be posting more on the reasoning behind that after Beryl is out of our hair.

We shall see what happens!
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Beryl to hit near Jacksonville as moderate TS, will bring rain relief to SE U.S.
Posted by: Levi32, 5:29 PM GMT on May 26, 2012 +4
Visit my new home at http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/Subtropical Storm Beryl formed yesterday as expected, and is now a well-defined area of low pressure due east of Savannah, Georgia. Thunderstorm activity is a bit lacking this morning, and the circulation is a bit naked. The reason Beryl looks worse today is because she has become vertically stacked beneath the upper low that was to her west yesterday, and thus she has lost baroclinic support, and is being forced ...
Updated: 5:30 PM GMT on May 26, 2012   Permalink | A A A
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94L likely to become Beryl and Hit North Florida or Georgia
Posted by: Levi32, 5:49 PM GMT on May 25, 2012 +9
Visit my new home at http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/Once again we are watching off the SE U.S. coastline for subtropical or tropical development, this time from invest 94L which came out of the Caribbean, didn't develop there, but now has a good chance of becoming tropical storm Beryl sometime tomorrow. I haven't been able to post here on this yet, but if you follow my facebook page, earlier this week we discussed briefly the setup that could lead to this, as improb...
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Tropical Storm Alberto Forms off of South Carolina
Posted by: Levi32, 10:25 PM GMT on May 19, 2012 +3
Visit my new home at http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/Tropical Storm Alberto has formed off of the Carolina coast, fulfilling the concern we've had for a warm-core low to develop over the Gulf Stream beneath the upper-level trough split that has become cut-off near the SE U.S. coast. Alberto currently has tropical storm force winds of 45mph. Moderate convection has been sustained for about 18 hours now, mostly weighted in the northwest quadrant. The southeast quad is ...
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Possible Hybrid Development off the Carolinas this weekend; Caribbean Turns Wetter
Posted by: Levi32, 11:23 PM GMT on May 15, 2012 +6
Visit my new home at http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/The evolution of a complex pattern this week will create an opportunity for a hybrid low to develop off the SE U.S. coast, and at the very least a continued wet pattern from Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas up to the Carolinas. An upper low moving across the southern U.S. over the next few days will be splitting off from the westerlies and becoming stuck near the SE U.S. coastline by Friday and into this weekend. An ...
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About Levi32
Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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