Atlantic to Stay Quiet for Next 7-10 Days, Next Chance for Development not until End

By: Levi32 , 12:25 AM GMT on July 17, 2013

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12. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:01 AM GMT on July 24, 2013
Levi32 has created a new entry.
11. hurricanes2018
8:44 PM GMT on July 23, 2013
WTNT21 KNGU 231400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 22.7W TO 12.9N 28.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 22.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 160 MILES SOUTH SOUTH
EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT APPORXIMATELY 15 KNOTS. SATELITE IMAGERY AND
SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATE A LOW LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION. LOW
WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 83 DEGREES WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE. HOWEVER, THE LIFE CYCLE
OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY, STABLE AIR DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241400Z.//

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13299
10. hurricanes2018
1:41 AM GMT on July 23, 2013
NO NEW VIDEO YET!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13299
9. hurricanes2018
10:03 AM GMT on July 22, 2013
Link
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13299
8. hurricanes2018
6:29 PM GMT on July 20, 2013
here the tropical wave levi!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13299
7. hurricanes2018
4:15 AM GMT on July 20, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13299
6. hurricanes2018
10:31 PM GMT on July 19, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13299
5. hurricanes2018
6:15 PM GMT on July 18, 2013
did you see this coming levi
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13299
4. hurricanes2018
6:14 PM GMT on July 18, 2013
good video!!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13299
3. Levi32
3:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Quoting 2. DFWdad:
Thanks for the update!

Howe unusual is it for the MJO to retrograde?

Seems like all of the discussion I have heard on the WU blogs is about it moving West to East.

Thanks again.


It is against the MJO's normal behavior, but it is not terribly unusual. Often this can occur repeatedly throughout the course of a summer due to the MJO being "attracted" to a particular ocean because of much warmer water than normal. In some years, if the Atlantic is the warmest ocean relative to normal, the MJO will have a hard time staying away from phases 1-3 for very long.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
2. DFWdad
3:31 PM GMT on July 17, 2013
Thanks for the update!

Howe unusual is it for the MJO to retrograde?

Seems like all of the discussion I have heard on the WU blogs is about it moving West to East.

Thanks again.
Member Since: November 5, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 204
1. johnbluedog69
12:27 AM GMT on July 17, 2013
Thank You Levi!Very wise words at the end.Excellent presentation as always.
Member Since: October 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 437

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About Levi32

Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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MesoWest NERRS METEOROLOGICAL SITE AT KAC AK US
Fritz Creek, AK
Elevation: 32 ft
Temperature: 56.0 °F
Dew Point: 52.0 °F
Humidity: 86%
Wind: 4.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Updated: 8:30 PM AKDT on July 22, 2014
Overlooking Peterson Bay
Homer, AK
Elevation: 27 ft
Temperature: 57.5 °F
Dew Point: 47.4 °F
Humidity: 69%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 9:08 PM AKDT on July 22, 2014
RAWS HOMER AK US
Homer, AK
Elevation: 854 ft
Temperature: 56.0 °F
Dew Point: 52.0 °F
Humidity: 87%
Wind: 3.0 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Updated: 8:54 PM AKDT on July 22, 2014

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