TD #2 Forms and Moves into Belize - and A Look at the Rest of the Season

By: Levi32 , 1:25 AM GMT on June 18, 2013

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7. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:43 AM GMT on June 25, 2013
Levi32 has created a new entry.
6. hurricanes2018
7:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 115 Comments: 107079
5. hurricanes2018
5:10 AM GMT on June 21, 2013
Thanks Levi.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 115 Comments: 107079
4. mikatnight
9:22 PM GMT on June 20, 2013
Very, very impressive. Didn't much like having that arrow drawn right over my head, but oh well.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3. hydrus
9:20 PM GMT on June 20, 2013
118. hydrus 5:14 PM GMT on June 20, 2013 +0

Quoting Levi32:


If you lived in the 1960s, you would be saying the same thing. The period 1948-1960 was ridiculous in terms of May, June, and July storms. Visit the wunderground archive to see for yourself. The recent trend since 1980 is the result of periodicity associated with the AMO, which is very evident in this graph from Kossin's paper which Dr. Masters has referenced a lot. There may or may not be a statistically significant overall trend after the periodicity is factored out of the data. I don't know, but it's worth pointing out why the trend has been significant since 1980 (green lines).

Good afternoon Levi. It is my opinion the Earth and it oceans are warming faster then most scientists predicted. Since 1995 ( As you know of course ) we are in a cycle where most seasons are producing above average hurricane seasons. I do know that during some years, there were a lot of weak storms that had little affect with upwelling or sapping much energy from the Atlantic Basin itself. What has caught my attention is the change in the Rossby waves, jet streams, and warmer atmospheric temperatures that seem to keep creeping farther north and reaching higher elevations in mountainous areas. It is my belief this is a factor in whats happening now, and will play a roll in hurricane seasons to come. Eventually, hyperactivity in the Atlantic will likely slow down toward a more average to even below average activity when the cycle ends, but in the future, when the cycle of increased activity returns, we will see tropical cyclones forming farther north than usual and maintaining tropical characteristics even further into polar regions. I also think that Atlantic hurricanes on average will become larger and stronger, with a decrease in the average number of storms. I may or may not be around to see how it pans out, but it no doubt will be interesting for scientists, Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts to research and and pin down all the facts that are responsible for Earths changing climate.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
2. Tropicsweatherpr
1:53 AM GMT on June 18, 2013
Excellent as always. Is all explained in a simple matter that we can understand. It looks like nothing has change in terms of having an active season.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14923
1. AtHomeInTX
1:39 AM GMT on June 18, 2013
Thanks Levi.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 254

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About Levi32

Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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