Isaac to Impact Hispaniola and Cuba, on Course for Florida After

By: Levi32 , 4:59 PM GMT on August 24, 2012

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Tropical Storm Isaac continued to struggle yesterday as its circulation was still decoupled, with the surface center off to the north of the mid-level center. The biggest pressure falls remained in the vicinity of the mid-level center, however, and thus overnight the system has reformed with what looks like a much better vertically-stacked center farther to the south. Convection is now trying to wrap up the eastern side of the storm, though the northwest quadrant is void of deep thunderstorms. The last recon mission found a stronger storm with 60mph winds and a pressure of 1000mb. Outflow is healthy all around the system, and the only truly limiting factor left is dry air getting entrained from the western Caribbean. Isaac should strengthen on approach to Hispaniola today, and if he passes only over the western tip of Haiti, extra water time before hitting Cuba could allow him to make a run at hurricane status. If the mountains of Hispaniola draw him north into the island more quickly, however, he will have less time to strengthen. The mountains of Haiti and Cuba will weaken Isaac a bit during the crossing, but due to improving environmental conditions, only moderate weakening is expected. Once in the Florida Straights, strengthening should quickly resume. The current forecast track has Isaac interacting with the Florida Peninsula rather quickly after exiting Cuba, and thus keeps Isaac a tropical storm. If, however, Isaac passes just on either side of Florida, it will have much more time over water, and could easily become a hurricane.

The forecast track reasoning remains unchanged. A trough over the SE US is eroding the western periphery of the Bermuda High, and is allowing Isaac to begin moving northwestward. The average heading from the last 4 recon fixes was 305 degrees. This should take Isaac across the greater Antilles and in the general direction of Florida during the next 3 days. The forecast track has been shifted a bit westward due to the southward reformation of Isaac's center, which has placed him well southwest of where he was expected to be this morning. The track now takes Isaac up the Florida Penisula. This track is still slightly to the east of the model consensus. The models have been shifting slightly eastward with each run ever since recon G-IV data was injected into their routines last night, and they now show a much more reasonable-looking recurvature into the Florida panhandle and then Georgia and the Carolinas, as opposed to the nonsensical northwest track across the Mississippi River that they showed last night. I believe some eastward adjustments of the models are still likely to occur with time. It should be noted that there is still great uncertainty in the track due to the crossing of the Caribbean mountains, since they are known to jerk storms around in unpredictable fashions, and could cause am abrupt shift in the track at any time. The entire eastern gulf coast, Florida, and the other southeastern states should monitor Isaac closely, both for direct landfall impacts, and heavy rainfall afterwards.

Elsewhere...Joyce is sheared and weak, and is not an imminent threat to land. She will be moving northwest in the general direction of Bermuda during the next 4 days.

We shall see what happens!



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8. Levi32
5:55 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
If its too close to the coast it wont strengthen...dont think the GFS realizes that, strengthening it a few miles offshore


Yes it would definitely have to have some separation in order to really ramp up.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26601
7. GeorgiaStormz
5:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
If its too close to the coast it wont strengthen...dont think the GFS realizes that, strengthening it a few miles offshore
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
6. PedleyCA
5:38 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Thanks Again,
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5770
5. waterskiman
5:33 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Bloody hell Levi, now you got the storm going right over my boat. On the bright side its only blowing 65.

Thanks for the update,
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4429
4. splash3392
5:29 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Thank You Levi. I really appreciate and learn from your in depth explanations and graphics.
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 643
3. AtHomeInTX
5:26 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Thanks Levi. Once again I'm hoping your forecast is right. I don't wish the flooding rains on anyone especially Haiti. But a track over Florida as a tropical storm could save somebody else a lot of grief.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
2. Hoff511
5:22 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Thanks Levi! Not looking forward to this weekend. I'm going to board up just in case, but not sure what I am wishing for. A TS/cat 1 over me (20N 80W) or a monster in the gulf. We shall see.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 265
1. LakeWorthFinn
5:22 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Thanx again {{{Levi}}}
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7296

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Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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