TD 9 Forms - Eyeing the Big Caribbean Islands and the United States

By: Levi32 , 4:56 PM GMT on August 21, 2012

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Tropical Depression #9 has formed from Invest 94L east of the lesser Antilles. The system has displayed an increase in convection since last night, unsurprising since it has crossed 50W into an area of warmer water. Convective coverage remains low overall, and the northeastern semicircle of the storm is mostly void of thunderstorms. This should change as the system leaves its genesis area within the eastern Atlantic monsoon flow, and thunderstorm activity should gradually fill out during the next couple of days. TD 9 should steadily intensify as it enters the eastern Caribbean, bringing tropical storm conditions to the northern Antilles as far south as St. Lucia. By the time it nears Hispaniola in about 3 days, I expect it will be a moderate-strong tropical storm. This is not aggressive as the NHC forecast which takes TD 9 to a Cat 2 hurricane near Haiti. I am less bullish with the intensity through Day 3 due to the still less than ideal environment in the eastern Caribbean with continued fast trade winds and sinking air ahead of the storm.

The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. The subtropical ridge directly north of TD 9 right now should continue to direct it westward or WNW for the next 48 hours or so. Thereafter, this ridge will be shifting eastward and a weakness will develop north of the Bahamas, inducing a more northwesterly motion near or over the island of Hispaniola. This motion should then continue, bringing TD 9 in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida within 5 days. The 0z ECMWF takes TD 9 south of Cuba and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane. This is the western outlier of the model guidance envelope, and is being discounted as too far west at this time. The track has been nudged slightly to the left, and is in best agreement with the 06z GFS ensemble mean.

Overall, this storm is now developing, and we should start to get a better handle on the track as the models become better able to resolve the situation. The northern Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba could all face impacts from this storm during the next few days. The Bahamas and the southeast United States are very likely to be impacted as well, but there is still uncertainty on the details given that a potential U.S. landfall is still at least 6-7 days away.

Elsewhere....Invest 95L in the western Gulf of Mexico has not developed significantly since yesterday, mainly due to the frontal boundary to the northeast being too strong to allow much consolidation. 95L still has another day or so over water and could still wind up just before moving ashore, but should not be more than a rain maker for northern Mexico and extreme south Texas.

We shall see what happens!



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20. AllyBama
3:22 AM GMT on August 22, 2012
I can hardly wait to see what you have to say after the next model runs..BTW, if you love me you will NOT bring Isaac into the GOM!..lol
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635
19. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:10 AM GMT on August 22, 2012
As always muchas gracias for all the good information on Isaac. Looking forward to tomorrow's Tidbits.Keep up the good work!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
18. acyddrop
2:50 AM GMT on August 22, 2012
Thanks for the update Levi, looking forward to your update tomorrow.
Member Since: October 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
17. chsstormgirl
11:50 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Thanks! Wonderful analysis, as always!
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
16. Levi32
11:40 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting chsstormgirl:
Levi,

With the 12z and the 18z runs out now, do you see your track shifting significantly? Are you seeing more of an east coast or Florida event? I feel like historically, more of an east coast storm would be favored, but I realize every storm is different.

Thanks!


I prefer to see if the models continue a westward trend through tonight and early tomorrow morning. Shifting the track with every run of the models is too reactive for me. Florida is certainly right in the thick of it, even though my track is still just to the east. The gulf coast should be monitoring the situation closely as well. I'll be updating my track tomorrow morning.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
15. chsstormgirl
11:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Levi,

With the 12z and the 18z runs out now, do you see your track shifting significantly? Are you seeing more of an east coast or Florida event? I feel like historically, more of an east coast storm would be favored, but I realize every storm is different.

Thanks!
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
14. hurigo
11:28 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Hi Levi,
This is the time of the year when I count on you the most, my friend. Thank you for your analysis and commentary. I suppose maybe tomorrow, you can tell me just exactly when I (might) need to head out of town!
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6731
13. seflagamma
7:42 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Thanks Levi, we will keep watching that storm and hope it goes out to sea!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40921
12. TopWave
7:30 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
"Future" Issac looks so much like Irene's track last year almost to the day. Although Irene crossed over northern Hispanolia without much land interaction. I live in Richmond and we lost power for two weeks from Irene. Trees down all over. Reminded me of Isabel in 2003. Isabel was by far the most destructive here.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
11. AtHomeInTX
6:52 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


Fairly unlikely now. This looks like a pretty much guaranteed continental landfall.


Ok thanks Levi.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
10. Levi32
6:48 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Thanks Levi. With your track are you seeing it recurving out to sea eventually?


Fairly unlikely now. This looks like a pretty much guaranteed continental landfall.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
9. AtHomeInTX
6:47 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Thanks Levi. With your track are you seeing it recurving out to sea eventually?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
8. npalmwatcher
6:22 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Thank you Levi. Long time lurker and fan of yours. I'm in SE Florida so I'm watching and waiting for your updates!
Member Since: August 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
7. kwgirl
6:14 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Thanks Levi. I pray if it comes my way, that it cross all those mountains and just give me a rainy day. That said, if it comes my way, the gulf states are going to have to look out. Many a storm has crossed over the keys and regenerated in the Gulf. Camille comes to mind. Let's hope not.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
6. watercayman
5:45 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Thank you Levi.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
5. floridaT
5:35 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
good job young man. dont let the bad comments get ya down
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1081
4. lavinia
5:25 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Great update Levi. Thanks.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
3. Levi32
5:19 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:
no love for 96L?


Not relevant while it is days away from the islands and TD 9 is right on the doorstep. I keep a close focus on the systems impacting land and tend to ignore the ones way out in the middle of nowhere until they become an issue.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
2. Hoff511
5:11 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Thanks Levi!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 265
1. Tazmanian
4:59 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
no love for 96L?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255

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Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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